John Edwards Is So Funny

As I imagine many of you already know, John "Two Americas" Edwards is an anti-Walmart campaigner. He's having a book signing in Manchester today, and I'll let the Union Leader take it away:

So naturally Edwards is holding his book signing at Barnes & Noble instead of Wal-Mart. Which is too bad for his anti-low-wages campaign, because in Manchester Wal-Mart pays hourly employees more than Barnes & Noble does.

The Barnes & Noble where Edwards will hawk his book pays $7 an hour to start. The Wal-Mart that sits just yards away pays $7.50 an hour. [emphasis in original]

Not very surprising, really, as these anti-Walmart people (and liberals in general) have always been more about feelings than facts. They also pay attention only to wages, and not to the prices, which help out far more people on the lwoer end of the economic spectrum than Walmart employs. Walmart, by the way, pays more than the minimum wage at every location -- well, the federal one, at least; I can't speak with certainty as to the state ones. Of course, most anti-Walmart campaigners come from the higher end of the economic spectrum, including multi-millionaires like John Edwards, Michael Moore, et cetera.

Baseball Awards and Such

I meant to say something about them before they started announcing awards, or at least the big ones, but oh, well.

Johan Santana was an obvious choice for the AL Cy Young, and none of the voters did anything stupid like give someone else their first place vote. He won the pitching triple crown (although only by a tie in wins), and there was really no argument for anyone having a better season. The NL Cy Young, on the other hand, nobody deserved. Sure, the NL had some good pitchers, but none of them pitched well enough to earn the award. Since the award apparently couldn't go to the humidor in Colorado (which was more deserving than any pitcher), I suppose Brandon Webb was an acceptable selection, given the competition. Perhaps there shuold be an asterisk next to the designation of him as winner ...

I'm enormously glad that Joe Girardi beat out Willie Randolph for the NL Manager of the Year Award. The Mets have been throwing money around for years, and finally had something to show for it. Big deal. They essentially did what they were supposed to do. Girardi took a bunch of fairly raw talent, and surprised almost everyone. Plus, he told off the owner -- bonus points. Now, I certainly agree that talk of the Marlins losing 127 games (what I saw someone say) was beyond absurd, but prior to the season I saw only one writer who said that it was conceivable that they'd compete for the wild card, and yet they ended up in the hunt. Jim Leyland seemed like a good pick for the AL version of the award.

I don't really see how there can be much argument over Verlander for AL Rookie of the Year, despite the efforts to create an argument over who it should be. Liriano pitched better when he actually pitched, but his season was too abbreviated to give him the award when Verlander pitched the whole season. Someone gave a first-place vote to Nick Markakis, which was interesting, and he put up good enough numbers to win it some years, but not this one. Papelbon, at the end of the day, failed to receive a single first-place vote, and rightfully so -- there was the injury (abbreviated season), and the fact that he was a closer, not a starter. Starters are much more valuable than closers; I'm quite sick of all the attention closers receive. Incidently, I'm back to my "no closers deserve to be in the Hall of Fame" mode of thinking. The NL ROY award had a much more wide-open race. They had more quality rookie starters (even though you can certainly argue the top three were in the AL -- Liriano, Verlander, and Weaver), and more quality rookie position players. The Marlins had six players receive votes, and the Dodgers had three, while all other teams combined for three more. I don't really have an argument against Hanley Ramirez winning the award, except that he stunk up the joint whenever I stuck him in my fantasy lineup. I wasn't too opinionated on this, except I believe that Ryan Zimmerman finished too high at a very close seond. Perhaps some voters didn't want to name two Marlins 1-2 on their ballot. This is one of those races where I'd like to see a more complete ballot breakdown (who named whom at what position on their ballot).

It seems a bit odd to go ahead with the MVP awards, as they're going to announce the NL one later today, and the AL one tomorrow, and I've already waited this long to do an awards write-up, but, come on, that's not the way I operate. I think Jeter will come away with the AL MVP award. I know that there are a lot of Jeter haters out there, and, well, too bad. I know a lot of people complain that his stats aren't MVP-type stats (HR and RBI, mostly), but look at Ichiro's 2001 numbers when he won MVP. The NL MVP award I believe will go to Pujols. I say this even though I have an irrational dislike of Pujols, much like the irrational dislike many people have of Jeter (although the magnitude is less). When Ryan Howard had 56 homers on September 8 (a cumulative stat, of course), he looked like a lock for the award. However, hitting only two the rest of the way probably did him in. It didn't help that his team fell short in the wild card race, either. He'll still get a few first-place votes, I'm sure, but the award should go to Pujols.

There are several other awards out there, but I don't consider them to be very serious awards. Some are more serious than others, but I still consider the above to be more serious (with the possible exception of the managerial awards). I know some people want to complain about Jeter's Gold Glove, but it's far from the greatest outrage in GG history -- in 1999, Rafael Palmeiro won the AL 1B award despite only playing 28 games in the field all season.

Quick Updates on Election Results

Updating a previous item, in counting the absentee ballots, in Arizona Legislative District 21, Nichols (the incumbent Republican) now leads Hettmansperger by nearly 600 votes.

Also in Arizona absentee ballot counting news, Hayworth has somewhat narrowed the gap with Mitchell, and, at last checking of Arizona's Secretary of State website, trails by 5,526 votes. I heard there were still 150,000 ballots to be counted, but I'm fairly certain that's the statewide figure, so I'm not sure how many are left to be counted in this district. It would be highly amusing to see all the networks have egg on their faces from a bad call, plus it would be cool to see Hayworth retain his seat. I wouldn't say that it's something to count on, but we shall see.

Update: There's also a recount in CT-2, in which Republican Congressman Rob Simmons was down by 167 votes against Democrat Joe Courtney on election night. One voting machine was misread, giving Courtney an extra 100 votes. Though I'm not too optimistic about this seat, it is possible, given that the margin is now under 100 votes (the article seems to indicate some other revisions, but does not mention the exact count of the revision) for Simmons to sqeak through. The article also mentions that in 1994, the Democrat incumbent won by 21 votes in that district (I imagine the district has been slightly altered since then, though, following the 2000 census). Further update: According to CNN, the margin is 66 votes.

New Politics

Jonah Goldberg has a nice rebuke to those saying the 2006 elections mark an entry into a new age of politics.

Rumsfeld and Other Stuff

Why is it that Bush has stayed away from movement conservatives/Reagan-types in his cabinet appointments and the like. He's brought in personal loyalists and Bush-41 types, but not many people that truly make the conservative movement happy. I mean, think about it -- how many solid conservative appoitnments has he made? There was John Ashcroft as Attorney General, who, in addition to being better than Alberto Gonzalez, allowed a little "triangulation" to make Bush seem more moderate in comparison. Ashcroft and Rumsfeld were the two big lightning rods attracting hate from the Left, and now they're both gone. Not really the best of moves.

As for the timing of Rumsfeld's resignation, if Bush was going to replace him anyway, why not ask for the resignation before the election? It might have helped Republicans hold a few seats, or gain those seats in Georgia. As there had been numerous Republicans calling for his resignation (wrongly, as to the merits, in my opinion, though quite possibly correctly as to the politics), it seems this could have bought the Republicans some votes, held onto a few defectors, and just generally helped his party. Several House seats were decided by 5,000 votes or less, and the Montana Senate seat was decided by about 3,000, and the Virginia Senate seat by less than 8,000. Small swings in each of these races would have greatly helped the Republicans. While it's doubtful the Republicans could have kept the House from that one act, they could have held onto a few more seats, and probably retained control of the Senate, which would have been big come nominations time. If Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens retires, Bush will certainly be wishing the Senate were split 51-49 in his favor, rather than against him. I'd expect him to hold all 49 Republicans (Chafee, the only Republican to vote against Alito, is gone), and pick up Ben Nelson of Nebraska, but it gets sketchy after that, making it harder to get a nominee through. Landrieu of Louisiana, Johnson of South Dakota, Baucus of Montana are all up for re-election in 2008, which makes them more likely to support nominees than they normally would be (and, as memory serves, all three were more likely to support Bush's nominees than your typical Democrat), but the Senate leadership is in the hands of Harry Reid (majority leader) and Pat "Leaky" Leahy (Judiciary Committee Chairman), and I don't trust them to move Bush's nominees.

Staying True to Your Word

Tim Hames said he'd eat his own words if the Democrats took the Senate, and he's kept his promise. Personally, I'm glad I didn't say anything similar, as I very nearly did.

Senate: 2008 and Other Notes

To give some indication of the lack of Republican prospects for gaining Senate seats in 2008, the Republicans will be defending 21 seats, and the Democrats only 12. Of those twelve, five are from states that Bush won in both 2000 and 2004:

Max Baucus, Montana: He's been elected to the Senate five times already. He could retire, but he's young for someone who's been in the Senate so long (he turns 65 in December), so that seems unlikely. Barring the old "live boy or dead girl," this seat is his in 2008 as long as he wants it.

Tim Johnson, South Dakota: He won only by an extremely narrow margin of John Thune in 2002. Thune then went on to defeat Tom Daschle in 2004. A Republican pickup is fairly doubtful, though not completely impossible.

Mary Landrieu, Louisiana: She won in a close runoff in 2002. We actually stand a chance here, as Louisiana has been trending more Republican.

Mark Pryor, Arkansas: While you can't quite rule the Republicans out, Arkansas likes its dems more than most southern states, and there are the usual advantages of incumbency.

John Rockefeller IV, West Virginia: West Virginia loves its incumbents, and this one first won his Senate seat in 1984. Not much of a chance for Republicans unless he retires (he's older than Baucus, but still considerably younger than his fellow West Virginian senator, Robert Byrd).

So, while a seat in a purple or blue state might come into play, and retirements always play an important role, I see only one seat that strikes me as truly vulnerable, and even that one won't be easy. Plus, there are the Republican vulnerablities to consider.

Meanwhile, it looks like George Allen could possibly be the Republican nominee in 2008 after all. Not for president, mind you, but Sen. John Warner will be 81 in 2008 and might not seek re-election. Just a possibility.

It looks like the Democrats will control the Senate of the 110th Congress with a 51-49 edge. It's not impossible for Republicans to regain control of it, however. A death or resignation of a senator with a "D" by his name, who comes from a state with a Republican governor, could create a 50-50 split, with Cheney as the tie-breaker. A few states have different rules on this; I believe Connecticut changed its law in 2000 when it looked like, if Lieberman became Vice President, a Republican replacement might tip the balance to Republicans (as the results of the 2000 election gave a 50-50 Senate, only a few hundred votes in Florida kept this from coming to pass, with the exception of the law beign in place to prevent it). Deaths were once a lot more common among sitting senators, but the last ten years have seen the deaths of only three senators and one senatorial candidate, who went on to win the election (and possibly only won because of his death). The two most recent deaths were in plane crashes, so old age and health were not really factors (although they were flying for their campaigns for (re-)election at the time, so that doesn't completely apply at this time). I'm not trying to start a death watch or anything, I'm just saying is all.

Morning Update

I've been watching the Montana Senate race all night; they mentioned the possibility of calling it by 7am MST, so I'll stay up for awhile yet. It's gone back and forth, giving me hope, and taking it away. Here's how it's gone so far:

5500 even w/75%
5871 w/ 78%
5290 w/ 79%
5679 w/ 80%
3997 w/ 81%
4032 w/ 84% 146,672 to 142,640
5277 w/ 85% 150,210 to 144,933
4615 w/ 87% 158,068 to 153,453
4725 w/ 87% 158,536 to 153,811
3619 w/ 88% 162,294 to 158,675
2052 w/ 90% 173,259 to 171,207
1743 w/ 91% 174,045 to 172,302

First column is vote differential, then percent reporting, followed by vote totals for Tester and Burns, respectively, where applicable. It could end up being a week or so before we know who the majority party is in the Senate (or 50/50 split, whichever). Virginia is pretty close, but, unless I hear some big news (and that I haven't already makes me doubt that it's coming), I'd say Webb has it won.

I may have been hasty in dismissing Republican chances to regain the House in 2008 in my previous post. There might be enough to gain a bare majority, I'll have to think on it.

Interesting local results here. I'm in Arizona's 21st Legislative District, and for our House election, we vote for two people. There were two Republicans and one Democrat on the ballot. Yarbrough, a Republican, easily finished with the highest total and so will return to the legislature. However, Hettmansperger, the Democrat, currently has eight more votes than the other Republican, Nichols, 19658 to 19650. I heard on NPR (my antennae was stolen and it's the only news station that comes in clearly) last night that absentee and provisional ballots had yet to be counted. Could be interesting.

I'm also marvelling at the news organizations right now, that they have't called several races. Which ones vary by news organization, though the races tend Republican. For instance, CNN has not called the following races: CT-2, GA-8, GA-12, LA-2, MI-9, NM-1, NC-8, OH-2, OH-15, PA-6, PA-8, TX-23, WA-8, and WY-AL. Now, there's a reason for some of them. LA-2 and TX-23 are heading for runoffs. CT-2 has a 223 vote margin with 97% reporting. WA-8 is a 2 point race with 31% reporting. However, MI-9 has a 10 point margin with 91% reporting, OH-15 has a margin of over 11,000 votes with 100% reporting; these should have been called a few hours ago. In the case of OH-15, Fox News called it quite awhile ago. There were more examples, but CNN made a few calls in the last couple hours. Fox News needs to make some calls as well; they have fewer calls made than CNN (seems at least partially because they pretty much went to bed last night; they were quicker to call seats flipping than CNN all night). Still a few gubernatorial races not called (by some parties); CNN hasn't called Rhode Island or Minnesota yet, both of which look like Republican retentions (albeit by slim margins).

Update:
1507 96% 183,386 to 181,879

Okay, I Was Wrong. Really Wrong.

Yeah, my predictions were bad. The Dems figure to have about a 30 seat gain in the House, and may take the Senate. There will certainly be a recount in Virginia. I'm hearing it's the very blue parts of Missouri that haven't reported yet.

This is horrible news for Republicans. Our chances of regaining the House in '08 are slim to none. As for the Senate, we're as likely to lose seats in '08 as gain them. No, this is not bitter from defeat talk; this is what I came up with a few weeks before the election. Several of the lost House seats we quite simply are not getting back. We have a good shot at a few, but I don't think it will be enough. We are likely to make gains in the House in '08, thankfully, but not enough. We'd definitely need to win the presidential election to have any hope of regaining the House.

Sorry to sound like such a Derbyshire Republican ("We're doomed!").

More write-up tomorrow on this election, and the several recounts and so forth that will happen. Also to come: further explanation of why 2008 does not look hopeful (Congressionally speaking) and, probably a little later, a renewed write-up of 2008 presidential hopefuls, several of which have had their dreams dashed by now (such as George Allen).

Watching returns

5:12pm
Just over half the precincts reporting in KY-3, and Anne Northup has a narrow lead.

5:28pm
Frustrating slowness in counting votes. Northup now down with about two-thirds reporting.

5:33pm
More states are closing, and there's still only one competitive race that I see the counting halfway finished in. Very much a grr moment. Surfing through several states' websites for official election returns, plus a few news sites.

6:02pm
Tons of races closed. I'm overwhelmed, or would be if I was actually getting any results back. Virginia is reporting pretty fast, dead heats in both the Senate race and VA-02, with 25% and 20% reporting, respectively. Northup down 1.8% with 81% reporting, not so good. Not sure when Kentucky counts its mail-in ballots, though.

6:07pm
Just saw IN-8 called for the Dems. Disappointing, but not unexpected.

6:13pm
With nearly 800,000 votes counted in Virginia, Allen and Webb are seperated by 38. Kellam and Drake seperated by 11 in VA-02 with about 34,000 counted. Chocola down pretty big in IN-2 and Sodrel down a little in IN-9, each with just over 25% reporting. Buchanan up 8 in FL-13 with 38% reporting.

6:57pm
Very slow going as far as counting votes. Chocola in IN-2 is still down with 50% reporting, and by 6, but he was down 14 with 25% reporting, so it's good progress. Senate races in Ohio and Pennsylvania were called for the Dems, but very few returns, so can't say much about them or the ten competitive House races they combine for. Several races still really close, could easily go either way, even with 50% reporting. Republicans slightly ahead in Foley's old seat with 34% reporting. It's not quite as close in Virginia, and has moved towards the Republicans, but still close. Republicans had small leads in GA-08 and GA-12 (both currently held by Dems) in early returns.

7:19pm
Finally some really movement in counting for KY-3; unfortunately, it seems to show that Northup is done (down 7,000 with 97.2% reporting). Again, not sure when they count absentee ballots, though. On the bright side, KY-2 and KY-4 are looking like keepers for the Republicans. Sodrel still down with 57% in in IN-9 and Chocola is down 4 with 54% in (but see previous item on that). PA-10 and NC-11 are looking lost with about 20% counted (but I predicted as much, so not very worried). Most of the other House races are still too close or not enough counted.

Senate races called for Lieberman in Connecticut and Menendez (the Dem) in New Jersey. No surprises. Corker up 7 in Tennesse with 20% counted. Things are tightening in Virginia, but Allen is still up at the moment.

7:33pm
A moment of shock when I saw a CNN headline saying "CNN projects Democratic win in Rhode Island, beating incumbent Lincoln Chafee, giving the Democrats three of the six pickups they need to take control of the Senate." You see, the banner was wider than my browser window, and the "three of" part was cut off. Makes more sense now.

I have to be headed for work; not sure that I can post from there, but I might keep a running log and post that. Or not.

I Voted Today

Well, duh, you all knew that.

Anyways, I showed up at the poll at around 2:15pm, and was finished in about seven minutes. There was no line, but there were five people voting as I walked in. For those of you not in Arizona, the ballot here is four pages long, with 19 state propositions, 4 City of Mesa bond proposals, races for Governor, Treasurer, Secretary of State, Mine Inspector, Corporation Commissioner (two), Superintendent of Public Instruction, Attorney General, U.S. Senate, U.S. House, State Senate, State House (two), five members of the Central Arizona Water Conservation District board, Clerk of the Maricopa County Superior Court, board members for school governing boards of the Maricopa County Community College District (one) and Mesa Unified Scholl District (two), and 50 judicial retentions (obviously, some of those were for my district and not statewide). I was the 277th person to turn in my ballot (not counting mail-in ballots that were sent in), and while it was after the morning and lunchtime rushes, the evening rush is still left. Polls close here at 7pm.

My Predictions

I beautified this from an earlier version. I made predictions for each of the 57 House races I wrote about previously, along with competitive races for Senator and Governor. I made several unconventional predictions, but I figure I got all my bad predictions out of the way during the playoffs (that's how these things work, right?).

House

Democrats: 20 seats
AZ-8
CO-7
CT-4
CT-5
GA-8
IL-8
IN-7
IN-8
IA-1
IA-3
NM-1
NY-20
NY-24
NC-11
OH-15
OH-18
PA-7
PA-10
VT-AL
WV-1

Republicans: 37 seats
AZ-1
AZ-5
CA-4
CA-11
CO-4
CT-2
FL-13
FL-16
FL-22
GA-12
ID-1
IL-6
IN-2
IN-9
KY-2
KY-3
KY-4
MN-1
MN-6
NV-2
NV-3
NH-2
NJ-7
NY-19
NY-25
NY-26
NY-29
OH-1
OH-2
OH-12
PA-4
PA-6
PA-8
TX-22
VA-2
WA-8
WI-8

As seven of these seats were already held by dems (or dem-leaning socialist independent Bernie Sanders), this is a net gain of 13 for the Democrats, just short of winning the House. Yeah, it's crazy, I'm actually predicting the Republicans to hold the House. Unless I'm right, that is -- then I'm genius.

The 10 races I called for each party in which I'm least confident in my prediction:
For the Democrats:
CT-4, CT-5, GA-8, IL-8, IN-8, NM-1, NY-20, NY-24, NC-11, OH-15
For the Republicans:
CA-11, CT-2, FL-16, FL-22, GA-12, IN-2, KY-3, NH-2, PA-6, TX-22


Senate

Republicans will win:
Arizona
Maryland
Missouri
Montana
Tennessee
Virginia


Democrats will win:
Michigan
Minnesota
New Jersey
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Washington

As eight of these seats belong to Republicans and five to the Democrats, it's a net pickup of two for the Dems. I think Santorum will break 45 in Pennsylvania, and I really want him to win, but it seems like he'll stop short.

The three races for each side in which I have the least confidence in my prediction:
For Republicans: Maryland, Montana, Virginia
For Democrats: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island



Governors

Republicans will win:
Alaska
Florida
Idaho
Maryland
Minnesota
Nevada


Democrats will win:
Arkansas
Colorado
Illinois
Iowa
Massachusetts
New York
Ohio
Oregon
Wisconsin


This gives the Democrats a gain of five governorships, and will give them a majority (27-23) for those who care about such things.

The two races for each side in which I have the least confidence in my prediction:
For Republicans: Maryland, Minnesota
For Democrats: Iowa, Wisconsin

Predictions

Still working on mine, but here are a few from others for those interested:

DailyKos -- the biggest left-wing site on the internet, Kos sees a Dem takeover of both the House and Senate, and doesn't make an insane prediction like Dems gaining 50 seats in the House.

Some friend of Jonah Goldberg -- okay, so there's no name there, but this strikes me as a good example of a GOP optimist. He basically goes through the RCP list of vulnerable seats and says what he thinks the state of each race is (a quick designation, not the amazingly long write-up I did). He has the Republicans only losing a net 12 seats in the House (and thus holding it), and 3 seats in the Senate.

John J. Miller's Senate Predictions -- he's been following tight Senate races all year and now offers his final predictions.

Larry Sabato has his final Crystal Ball predictions posted.

Bob Novak also has predictions.

Someone's rundown of Republican vulnerable House seats.

A symposiom of predictions from NRO.

Races to Watch by Poll Closing Time

This includes most of the House races listed below and the Senate and Governor races that are competitive. Seats listed are Republican unless noted otherwise.

6pm EST (4pm MST)
Indiana (EST)
-- IN-7: Julia Carson (D)
Kentucky (EST)
-- KY-3: Anne Northup
-- KY-4: Geoff Davis

7pm EST/ 6pm CST (5pm MST)
Indiana (CST)
-- IN-2: Chris Chocola
-- IN-8: John Hostettler
-- IN-9: Mike Sodrel
Kentucky (CST)
-- KY-2: Ron Lewis (this race was off the radar, but a recent Democrat poll put his challenger ahead, so I’d be remiss not to include it)
Georgia
-- GA-08: Jim Marshall (D)
-- GA-12: John Barrow (D)
South Carolina
Vermont
-- VT-AL: open (D)
Virginia
-- VA-02: Thelma Drake
-- Senate: George Allen
Florida (EST)
-- FL-13: open
-- FL-16: open (Foley)
-- FL-22: Clay Shaw
New Hampshire (rural)

7:30 EST (5:30 MST)
Ohio
-- OH-01: Steve Chabot
-- OH-02: Jean Schmidt
-- OH-15: Deborah Pryce
-- OH-18: open
-- Senate: Mike DeWine
West Virginia
North Carolina (local option to stay open an extra hour)
-- NC-11: Charles Taylor

8pm EST/ 7pm CST/ 6pm MST
Florida (CST)
Governor: open
New Hampshire (cities)
-- NH-2: Charles Bass
Alabama
Connecticut
-- CT-2: Rob Simmons
-- CT-4: Chris Shays
-- CT-5: Nancy Johnson
Delaware
District of Columbia
Illinois
-- IL-6: open
-- IL-8: Melissa Bean (D)
-- Governor: Blagojevich (D)
Kansas
Maine
Maryland
-- Governor: Ehrlich
-- Senate: open (D)
Massachusetts
Mississippi
Missouri
-- Senate: Jim Talent
New Jersey
-- Senate: Menendez (D)
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
-- PN-06: Jim Gerlach
-- PN-07: Curt Weldon
-- PN-08: Mike Fitzpatrick
-- PN-10: Don Sherwood
-- Senate: Rick Santorum
Tennessee
Senate: open
Michigan (EST)
-- Governor: Granholm (D)
-- Senate: Debbie Stabenow (D)
South Dakota (CST)
Texas (CST)
-- TX-22: open (DeLay)

8:30 EST / 7:30 CST (6:30 MST)
North Carolina (see previous note)
Arkansas

9pm EST / 8pm CST / 7pm MST
Michigan (CST)
South Dakota (MST)
Texas (MST)
-- Governor: Perry (not worried about him losing, but D could finish below 2nd)
Arizona
-- AZ-1: Rick Renzi
-- AZ-5: J.D. Hayworth
-- AZ-8: open
-- Senate: Jon Kyl
Colorado
-- CO-4: Marilyn Musgrave
-- CO-7: open
Louisiana
Minnesota
-- MN-1: Gil Gutknecht
-- MN-6: open
-- Governor: Pawlenty
-- Senate: open (D)
Nebraska
New Mexico
-- NM-1: Heather Wilson
New York
-- NY-20: John Sweeney
-- NY-24: open
-- NY-26: Tom Reynolds
-- NY-29: Randy Kuhl
Rhode Island
-- Senate: Lincoln Chafee (RINO)
Wisconsin
-- WI-08: open
-- Governor: Doyle (D)
Wyoming

9pm CST / 8pm MST / 7pm PST
Iowa
-- IA-1: open
-- IA-3: Leonard Boswell (D)
-- Governor: open (D)
Montana
-- Senate: Conrad Burns
Nevada
-- NV-2: open
-- NV-3: Jon Porter
-- Governor: open
Utah
Idaho (MST)
North Dakota (CST)
Oregon (MST)

9pm MST / 8pm PST / 6pm HIST
Idaho (PST)
North Dakota (MST)
Oregon (PST)
-- Governor: Kulongoski (D)
California
-- CA-11: Richard Pombo
Hawaii
Washington
-- WA-8: Dave Reichert

8pm AKST (10pm MST)
Alaska (AKST)

9pm ALST (11pm MST)
Alaska (ALST)
-- Governor: open

A More Thorough Listing of Competitive House Races

Since I have free time, and I'm a political geek of high order, I've decided to go a little more in-depth with competitive House races nationwide. I'll probably do 40-50 Republican-held seats, plus the few Democrat-held seats that Republicans have a shot at. There are lists of seats vulnerable to party-switch at Real Clear Politics (listed in order of their likelihood to switch, and seperated based on which party holds them; also a numerical list here), the Green Papers has its own list of where it thinks the races are (each and every House, Senate, and Governor seat up for election; scroll down a bit), and Chuck Todd has a list of his 60 most vulnerable House seats. Michael Barone gave some predictions, categorizing each of RCP's 50 most vulnerable House seats as either Sure Demo, Lean Demo, Lean Repub, or Sure Repub, and only has the Democrats netting a sixteen seat gain (giving them a 219-216 advantage). I'm not fully endorsing any of these lists, but they aren't bad as far as starting points go. I'll go through races in alphanumeric order, except seperating them based on what party currently holds them (or, in the case of the four vacant seats, which party most recently held them).

I guess I'll go with good news first, and go with the potential pick-ups for the Republicans. There's a good write-up on the seven most-vulnerable Dem-held seats by Jim Geraghty on NRO. For whatever it's worth, consulting the above lists, the Green Papers lists them all as leaning towards the Dems, Real Clear Politics has Georgia-12 as a toss-up, and the others as lean Dem (except West Virginia-1, which isn't listed), and Chuck Todd lists Georgia-12 as the 29th most vulnerable, and Illinois-08 and Georgia-08 as 41st and 42nd, respectively, having dropped the others from his list with his last update. RCP lists them at 31, 40, and 39, in that order. While the numerical rankings would not have looked at all good in 2002 or especially 2004, they are not all that bad this year (although, obviously, I'd prefer they were ranked higher).

Georgia-08: Congressman Jim Marshall defends his seat against Mac Collins, the former holder of the seat. Collins stepped down in 2004 to try for Zell Miller's old Senate seat, but was defeated in the Republican primary. One more note: after writing this, while working on the Republican-held seats, RCP moved this seat from "leans Dem" to "toss up" so that's a good sign. RCP

Georgia-12: Congressman John Barrow defends his seat against former Congressman Max Burns, the man he defeated for the seat in 2004. RCP

Illinois-08: Congresswoman Melissa Bean against Dave McSweeney. The last two polls have had Bean up by three and five points. Democrat governor Blagojevich is unpopular, but is favored to win re-election, so it's unclear what effect that might have on the race. RCP

Indiana-7: Congresswoman Julia Carson defends her seat against Erik Dickerson. One recent poll showed Dickerson up three, but it apparently included bits of the more Republican Districts 4 and 5 in its poll. A Research 2000 poll that presumably did a better job of staying in the lines has Carson up 48-43, with the rest undecided. Interestingly, Dickerson has managed to do this well on his own, without help from the Republican party (whose prefered candidate he defeated in the primary). Carson made a big stink about the state voter ID law when she showed up at the polling place with her Congressional ID, which does not have an expiration date, and so does not meet the voter ID requirements (she was allowed to cast a provisional ballot, and later showed her Driver's License and had her vote counted; despite her claims, many believe she intentionally tried to find and exploit for publicity a problem with the ID law, but I'm not too worried about members of Congress losing their ability to vote). Carson has had several close elections, and managed to come through each one. She's had some health issues, which could influence voters. RCP

Iowa-3: Congressman Leonard Boswell against Jeff Lamberti. All the polls I've seen show Boswell ahead by 11 or 12, which does not bode well for Lamberti. There's an outside chance there, but I wouldn't count on it. RCP

Vermont (AL): Socialist Bernie Sander's seat that he gave up to run for Senate, this race features Democrat Peter Welch and Republican Martha Rainville. I know, it seems hard to believe, a Republican in Vermont, but they ahve a Republican governor who won election in 2002, was re-elected in 2004, and is cruising to re-election this year (they have two-year terms for governors in Vermont). Still, Welch's lead has grown with each nonpartisan that comes out (3, 6, 8, 10), and this race is looking much less promising. At least there will be no more counting as an "Independent" someone who is basically a hardline Democrat (in the House, that is; he'll be replacing the Senate's lone "Independent"). RCP

West Virginia-1: Congressman Alan Mollohan aginst Chris Wakim. The lone poll I've seen here was done at the end of August, and had Mollohan up 10, but it's so old that it's accuracy is more than a little questionable. I don't assert that Wakim is actually up 10, and, in fact, Mollohan might be up by more than 10; I'm just saying the poll isn't very valuable. West Virginia really likes their incumbents. However, Mollohan has been plagued by scandals. Amusingly, he was the ranking member (which is, essentially, the minority party equivalent of chair) of the House Ethics Committee (he was convinced to step down). He was sending federal dollars to non-profits that his campaign contributors worked for, had some shady land deals, and some other things that, frankly, are not as uncommon in Washington as they should be. I really wish somebody would poll this race (non-partisan, that is).

And now for the Republican-held seats that are looking ... less than safe. This isn't necessarily the 50 most vulnerable; mostly I went down the RCP list, added a few from memory, and was at 49, so I added OH-12 (which was in Chuck Todd's top 50) to make an even 50. While I've heard a few people speculate about Dem gains approaching or exceeding 50, I very much doubt it will happen, so this list should include every seat that the Republicans lose, plus a good number that they don't (a number that will vary wildly based on how many seats they lose). If there is indeed a wave, and it gets to 35+ seats, you might see one or two seats not on this list that are lost. I doubt that will happen, I'm just saying is all.

Arizona-1: Congressman Rick Renzi faces Ellen Simon. Very little polling has been done in this race (a whopping three polls), and the polling is not very definitive. Both polls since mid-October have Renzi up, but neither have Renzi above 50%, which you really need before you can start considering a race remotely safe. Just a note for those who might click on the RCP link: the most recent poll (as of this typing) shows Renzi ahead 41-38, with 6 undecided. Yeah, I know, it doesn't quite add up. I looked at the poll internals, and they were going by those who were "strong" supporters of each candidate. The likely voter breakdown, without leaners, was 47-42 in favor of Renzi. I'd say that Renzi wins this unless it's a really bad night for the GOP, but it's closer than I like. RCP

Arizona-5: Congressman J.D. Hayworth is getting my vote for a seventh term (first time voting for him, though, as this is the first time I'm registered in his district) against Harry Mitchell. Hayworth has been in several close elections before, and emerged victorious each time. Mitchell is a former mayor of Tempe and is popular for some reason (college town, too many hippies). Mitchell, as I previously noted, was also caught stealing his opponent's yard signs in a previous campaign. I always thought Hayworth would pull this race off, but the only poll in the last couple of weeks has put Mitchell up by 2 (the first non-partisan poll to put him ahead). The Arizona Republic has turned against Hayworth, which hasn't helped him, and has been portraying Mitchell as a centrist (he isn't). RCP

Arizona-8: Open seat (Jim Kolbe is retiring). Republican Randy Graf faces Democrat Gabby Giffords. Graf defeated the candidate backed by more establishment Republicans in the primary. Non-partisan polls have given Giffords an 8-12 point lead in this race, and, although I don't find any of the polling firms here particularly reliable, Graf certainly has an uphill climb if he wants to win. It won't be the blowout some were expecting after Graf won the primary, and I think he'll reach 45%, but 50% would seem to be beyond his reach (he could technically win with less than 50%, but it's not something to count on). RCP

California-4: Congressman John Doolittle defends his seat against Charles Brown. Aside from one poll which showed a tie, every other poll in the last month has Doolittle up by at least 7 points. Looks good for Doolittle. Plus, c'mon, Charlie Brown isn't going to win an election. RCP

California-11: Congressman Richard Pombo against Jerry McNerney. I see only one non-partisan poll in this race, and it has McNerney up 2, but it's from the same poll that had the previous race tied, so I'm skeptical. RCP

Colorado-4: Incumbent Marilyn Musgrave tries to hold off a challenge from Angie Paccione. While polls in early and mid-October had Musgrave up 10, the last two polls have Musgrave up 1 and Paccione up 3. RCP

Colorado-7: Open seat (Bob Beauprez is running for governor). Republican Rick O'Donnell and Democrat Ed Perlmutter face-off. This is one of the Republicans' most vulnerable seats. Perlmutter opened a double-digit lead in September, and although there were indications of tightening in October, it's back to double-digits. Republicans should count this race as gone. RCP

Connecticut-2: Congressman Rob Simmons and challenger Rob Courtney. This is widely considered the safest (or, perhaps more accurately, least-vulnerable) of the three Connecticut seats. The latest poll does have Courtney up 1, but that's well within the margin of error. RCP

Connecticut-4: Congressman Chris Shays and Democrat Diane Farrell. Chris Shays isn't exactly known for endearing himself to conservatives, but after the Foley scandal broke, Shays responded to Ted Kennedy's moral lecturing with a reference to Chappaquiddick, which instantly increased his standing among conservatives. This race is generally considered slightly more vulnerable than CT-5, though the two are rather close in that regard. Shays has long been a favored Republican of the New York Times, but they've turned on him and endorsed his opponent; kinda shows what cozying up to the Times is worth for Republicans. Polls have been all over in this race, and I'm certainly not buying either extreme (Shays up 9 or down 7). RCP

Connecticut-5: Congressman Nancy Johnson and Chris Murphy. I'm thinking this one is actually slightly more vulnerable than the previous one. Johnson hasn't done well in the recent polls, down 3, 4, and 8. While none were done by one of my prefered polling firms, I can't readily dismiss them when they're all in that direction. RCP

Florida-13: Open seat (Katherine Harris is running for Senate). Republican Vern Buchanan and Democrat Christine Jennings compete for this seat. The only non-partisan polls have been a pair of RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics polls, which I don't particularly trust (probably better than Zogby, though), which have Jennings up by 2 and 3 points. RCP

Florida-16: Open seat (Mark Foley resigned in disgrace). Republican Joe Negron (under Foley's name) faces Democrat Tim Mahoney. Many considered this seat a lost cause for Republicans when the Foley scandal broke. I disagreed, and others are coming around to my view (I'm not saying it's a slam dunk for the Republicans, either). It was downgraded from top-3 status by both RCP and Chuck Todd to 10th and 12th, respectively. Since Foley's resignation came so close to the lection, Republicans couldn't replace him on the ballot, but, under Florida law, could designate all his votes to go to someone else. Thus, Florida Republicans started the amusing "Punch Foley for Negron" campaign, including this memorable website. The Republicans also won a court battle, allowing them to post signs in polling places stating that a vote for Foley goes to Negron. I had heard something about Republicans making inroads here with the aforementioned campaign, but don't see any recent polls on RCP; it may be something I heard about Republican internal polling. RCP

Florida-22: Congressman Clay Shaw against Ron Klein. Shaw was ahead through mid-October, but the last few polls have trended towards Klein. RCP

Idaho-1: Open seat (Butch Otter is runnign for governor). Republican Bill Sali and Democrat Larry Grant square off in this race. Two polls have Sali up, and one has Grant up. However, the one that has Grant up has an absurd 25% undecided, so I wouldn't place too much stock in it. Both RCP and Chuck Todd list this as the 50th most vulnerable seat in the House, and I'm inclined to agree that it is not too likely to switch parties. RCP

Illinois-6: Open seat (Henry Hyde is retiring). Republican Peter Roskam goes up against Democrat Tammy Duckworth. Aside from a Zogby poll showing Duckworth up 14, all the polls in October varied form Duckworth up 1 to Roskam up 4, so I'm inclined to dismiss the Zogby poll (even moreso than usual). Looks to be very close, and I'd give Roskam the slight edge. RCP

Indiana-2: Congressman Chris Chocola (has to be one fo my favorite names in Congress) goes for re-election against Joe Donnelly. The last two non-Zogby polls had Donnelly up 3. Chocola has narrowed the gap, but needs good turnout to put him over the top on election night. RCP

Indiana-8: Congressman John Hostettler against Brad Ellsworth. Hostettler has faced tough campaigns before, and even been counted as lost before, but still emerged victorious. Hostettler has never been a traditional campaigner, and refuses all PAC money. The last two polls show him down by 7 and 10 points, so, while I'm not ready to pronounce his campaign dead just yet, things do not look good. Ellsworth is a fairly conservative county sheriff in the district, which could help put him over the top. As a random aside, all of my grandparents live in this congressional district. RCP

Indiana-9: Congressman Mike Sodrel faces Baron Hill, the Congressman he ousted in 2004 after losing his challenge to him in 2002. In the 2002 campaign, Hill won by 9500 votes, and Sodrel won by 1500 in 2004. There's no reason to think this year will be any different in terms of the closeness of this election. Although this is considered the least vulnerable of these three Indiana seats, it's still ranked 19th on RCP and 16th by Chuck Todd, so, in a situation that involved Republicans retaining the House, it would still not be implausible for Republicans to lose all three seats. The latest poll puts Sodrel ahead by 2, but this is his first lead in the race. I have a gut feeling that Sodrel will pull this one out, but it will be a nail-biter. RCP

Iowa-1: Open seat (Jim Nussle is runnign for governor). Republican Mike Whalen competes against Democrat Bruce Braley. I'm inclined to dismiss the latest poll, showing Braley up 21. Still, most polls have given Braley a double-digit lead, and this is one of the more left-leaning portions of the state. Looks likely to flip parties. RCP

Kentucky-2: Congressman Ron Lewis defends his seat against Mike Weaver. This was not really expected to be a vulnerable seat, but a Democrat poll put Weaver up 46-43, so I figured I should include it. Partisan polls skew towards their client, though, and I find it unlikely that Weaver will win on election day. That said, this is one of the earlier polls to close, and if he does pull off the win, it looks to be a very bad day for the Republicans. RCP not available (as near as I can tell)

Kentucky-3: Congressman Anne Northup is running against John Yarmuth. Polling is inconsistent in this race, varying from Northup being up 6 to Yarmuth being up 8. Northup is a veteran of close races (with the exception of 2004), and has been a top target of Democrats since 1998. RCP

Kentucky-4: Congressman Geoff Davis faces Ken Lucas. Lucas is fairly conservative, and formerly held this seat from 1998-2004, when he refused to seek re-election because he had made a term-limits pledge in 1998 (which does not apply to non-contiguous terms). Not sure off the top of my head, but I'm thinking Lucas did not support Pelosi as minority leader, which raises the question of whether he'd support her should the Democrats win a narrow majority, including him, in the election for Speaker. Neither candidate has managed a lead outside the margin of error in polling. RCP

Minnesota-1: Congressman Gil Gutknecht, Jr., is up against Tim Walz. This race seems characterized by a lack of polls, as RCP only has two, both with Gutknecht up by a very narrow margin (inside the margin of error). RCP

Minnesota-6: Open seat (Mark Kennedy is running for Senate). Republican Michele Backmann faces Democratic-Farmer Labor nominee Patty Wetterling. A couple of polls had Watterling up in early October (including the always unreliable Star Tribune), but everything else has shown a Backmann lead, including a 7 point advantage in the most recent poll. This seat looks like it will be retained by the Republicans, although I wouldn't count it safe. RCP

Nevada-2: Congressman Jim Gibbons faces Jill Derby. Not high on the list of vulnerable seats, of the five non-partisan polls released in this race, Gibbons has had a lead of 8 in four, and 3 in the other (though one of the 8's was back in May, and, as such, is irrelevent). RCP

Nevada-3: Congressman John Porter and Tessa Hafen face off here. Like the neighboring NV-2, this race is not high on the list of vulnerables, and every poll has given Porter a lead of 7-10. RCP

New Hampshire-2: Congressman Charlie Bass faces Paul Hodes in a repeat of the 2004 election. Bass seems to have thought he could cruise to re-election and took it a little too easy on the campaign trail this year, and has gotten himself into trouble. The UNH tracking poll gives a large lead to Hodes, but I don't really buy that he has a lead of that size. The Research 2000 poll gave Bass a lead of 1, but that, of course, is well within the margin of error, and even without buying the UNH poll at face value, you have to figure that Bass's 1 point lead is more likely an error in his favor than his opponent's. I'm certainly not counting Bass out, but he is not where he wants to be, and he could very well face a disasterous finish against the opponent he beat by 20 points in 2004. RCP

New Jersey-7: Congressman Mike Ferguson and Linda Stender. Ferguson has led in all the polls, oddly with a smaller lead in the non-partisan than in the partisan Democrat polls. The non-partisan polls are all the RTS/CD ones that I don't trust particularly much. Anyways, Ferguson looks to keep this seat. RCP

New Mexico-1: Congressman Heather Wilson faces a stuff challenge from state Attorny General Patricia Madrid in this central New Mexico district (Albuquerque and surroundings). Wilson has faced several tough challenges before, but she tends to pull it off in the end. Madrid has been up in every poll since the beginning of October, except for one partisan Republican poll. RCP

New York-19: Congressman Sue Kelly against John Hall. This is another race that polls oddly. In partisan Democrat polls, Kelly is up, but in RTS/CD polls, Hall is up. As partisan polls tend to support their client, I'm inclined towards believing Kelly is up, and dismissing the RTS/CD polls (which, as mentioned, I do not find the most reliable). RCP

New York-20: Congressman John Sweeney versus Kirsten Gillibrand. When I say I don't particularly trust RTS/CD polls, it's races like this I have most in mind. They've done two polls here, showing Gillibrand with leads of 11 and 13, while no other poll has given Gillibrand a larger lead than 3, including the two partisan Dem polling companies working here. It's also a race that comes to mind when I talk about how screwy polling has been this year, as the RTS/CD poll giving Gillibrand a 13-point lead was conducted Oct 15-16, while a Siena College poll conducted Oct 16-17 gave Sweeney a 14-point lead. I was thinking that Sweeney was going to pull this out, but then a report was released a few days ago saying Sweeney's wife called 911 to report a domestic dispute. Both Sweeney and his wife are denying the accuracy of this report, so the race pretty much comes down to whether voters trust the Sweeneys and think it's dirty politics, or distrust the Sweeneys and think it's dirty secrets. Only one poll has come out since this news broke, a Siena College poll which has Gillibrand up 46-43; Sweeney's favorable rating fell from 49 to 35 between the two SC polls I've mentioned. Still, 46-43 does not at all give this race to Gillibrand. It's been charged that an advisor to Gillibrand, who also advises Hillary Clinton, was behind feeding the story to the press. RCP

New York-24: Open seat (Sherwood Boehlert is retiring). Republican Ray Meier and Democrat Mark Arcuri go at it. The only polls I see here are a Republican one that had Meier up 11 at the end of August, which is old and partisan, and an RTS/CD poll taken in the wake up the Foley scandal, which had Arcuri up 11, but is from a polling firm that doesn't receive my highest marks and had poor timing for an accurate picture of this race, in addition to being nearly a month old. I doubt that Arcuri has an 11 point lead, but I have a hard time rating this race, other than saying it will be tough for the GOP. RCP

New York-25: Congressman James Walsh against Dan Maffei. See the write-up for NY-19; pretty much the exact same thing here. RCP

New York-26: Congressman Tom Reynolds (chairman of the NRCC, the committee tasked with electing Republicans to the House) fights for re-election against Jack Davis, Jr. Reynolds's name popped up in the Foley scandal, which severely hurt him. However, he's recovered to take the lead in recent polls, though a 3-5 point lead isn't spectacularly safe. RCP

New York-29: Congressman Randy Kuhl, Jr., faces Eric Massa. The only polls in the last month are two RTS/CD polls which have Massa up by double digits, but the previus poll, conducted by a partisan Dem polling firm in September, had Kuhl up 5. I'd be more inclined to dismiss the older partisan poll, but RTS/CD polls in NY have skewed so heavily towards the Dems that I'm as doubtful of them. RTS/CD is the new pollster on the block, and New York looks to embarrass them out of existence, or prove them amazing geniuses (I'm leaning towards the former). RCP

North Carolina-11: Congressman Charles Taylor versus Heath Shuler. Polling has given the edge to Shuler, but there are two problems with this. First, the polls are all partisan Dem, Zogby, or RTS/CD, none of which I particularly trust to paint an accurate picture. Second, Taylor was down by 2 in polling going into the 2004 election, but he won 55-45. Not saying I think Taylor's in the lead, just saying I'm skeptical of the polls (the four over the last month have Shuler up 5, 8, 8, and 9). RCP

Ohio-01: Congressman Steve Chabot versus John Cranley, IV. The only nonpartisan poll here is an RTS/CD poll giving Cranley a 2 point lead. Still, this race finishes just outside the top 25 most vulerable seats for both RCP and Todd. RCP

Ohio-02: Congressman Jean Schmidt faces Victoria Wulsin. The latest Survey USA poll has Wulsin up 3, but the one two weeks ago had Schmidt up 8; the question is how much of that is due to real movement and how much to poll fluctuation. Democrats were disappointed by Schmidt's victory in last year's special election for this seat, and she aims to disappoint them again. RCP

Ohio-12: Congressman Pat Tiberi defends his seat against Bob Shamansky (who was elected to a single term in Congress in 1980). The single poll I've seen here gives Tiberi a 5 point lead, but it's an RTS/CD poll. At any rate, this is generally rated further down the list of vulnerable seats and figures to switch only if this is a wave election. RCP

Ohio-15: Congressman Deborah Pryce is challenged by Mary Jo Kilroy. Another race with a disappointing lack of polls, especially since RCP has it ranked 15th and Todd has it ranked 13th on their respective most vulnerable lists. An RTS/CD poll had Kilroy up 12 in early October (even if I trusted the company, I'd want something more recent), but a partisan Dem poll had Pryce up 1 in late September. As that's it for polling in this race, there's little to go on but gut feeling. RCP

Ohio-18: Open seat (Bob Ney resigned in less disgrace than Mark Foley). Republican Joy Padgett is up against Zach Space. Another seatwithout quality polling, though it does have quantity. Padgett was staying within ten points before Bob Ney entere a guilty plea to corruption charges on October 13, and the only poll since then is a Zogby one showing her down 20. Not sure about the magnitude of that poll, but this race is all but lost. RCP

Pennsylvania-04: Congressman Melissa Hart defends her seat against Jason Altmire. Every poll in the last two months has Hart up 4. This seat isn't very vulnerable except in case of a wave. RCP

Pennsylvania-06: Congressman Jim Gerlach faces Lois Murphy, in a rematch of 2004 when Gerlach won by 6,500 votes. Insert my usual complaint about quality polls. In the last month, RTS/CD, Zogby, and partisan Dem polls all gave Murphy leads of 3-6. This is the kind of race the Dems absolutely need to win if they want a wave (note that I do not say winning it is indicative of a wave, merely that not winning is indicative of no wave). RCP

Pennsylvania-07: Congressman Curt Weldon is challenged by Admiral Joe Sestak, Jr., Ret. Weldon is under FBI investigation for allegedly using his position to steer business towards his daughter's lobbying firm. He denies the charges, but images of the FBI removing files from his daughter's home and office, along with those of others related to the charges, do not exactly help his campaign. Weldon may not be dead in the water, but he's in serious trouble. RCP

Pennsylvania-08: Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick runs for re-election against Patrick Murphy. Partisan dem polls and an RTS/CD poll have Murphy up, but everything else shows Fitzpatrick. As such, I lean towards Fitzpatrick. Rather big disagreement on where to rank this race from RCP and Todd, who have it at 38th and 21st, respectively, on their lists of must vulnerable seats. RCP

Pennsylvania-10: Congressman Don Sherwood versus Chris Carney. Sherwood would be cruising to re-election if not for his personal life. A woman filed assault charges against him and sued him for $5.5 million after a five-year affair. He acknowledged the affair, denied the assault charges, and settled the lawsuit out of court. I tend to be skeptical of all seven-figure lawsuits, but this is still bad news for Sherwood. He ran with no Dem opposition in 2004, but is now likely to lose his seat -- not the most common turn of events, but scandal will do that to a man. RCP

Texas-22: Open seat (Tom Delay resigned from Congress). Republican Shelley Sekula-Gibbs is a write-in candidate against Democrat former congressman Nick Lampson. DeLay resigned and withdrew from his re-election effort after winning the primary, which did not allow the Republicans to place someone else on the ballot. While this certainly adds a large handicap to the race for the Republicans, they do have a few things working in their favor. First, this is a very Republican district. Second, there is a special election concurrent with the general election to fill Tom DeLay's remaining term, and her name is on the ballot for that. The campaign has made a big deal about needing to vote twice, and needing to write her name in (actually, it seems that it's an electronic ballot system where the use a ball to scroll through letters and insert them one by one). The elections board will accept misspellings, but has not said which ones it will accept yet, as it figures this could influence the race. Interestingly, the electronic system groups the votes by spelling, and once they say a certain spelling will be accepted, all such spellings will immediately be accepted and counted. The lawyers are getting ready for this one. This race had been ranked most vulnerable by many, but now RCP ranks it 7th and Chuck Todd ranks it 10th. RCP

Virginia-02: Congressman Thelma Drake faces Phil Kellam. Drake is up 2 in a Mason-Dixon poll, and she has had mixed results from the usual suspects. She probably pulls this one off at the end. RCP

Washington-8: Congressman Dave Reichert and Microsoft executive Darcy Burner face off. Survey USA gives Reichert a consistent, if small, lead (he also managed to reach 50% in each). The RTS/CD polls have gone between the candidates within the margin of error. This race leans towards Reichert, though a Dem wave could demoralize his supporters and cost him the seat. RCP

Wisconsin-8: Open seat (Mark Green is running for governor). Republican John Gard and Democrat Steve Kagen battle for this seat. I can't say that I place a lot of faith in the polls for this district. This district does tend somewhat Republican (supporting Bush over Kerry 55-45), and that might be enoguh to carry the day for Gard. RCP

Finally got through all those; this post is probably the most time-consuming in the history of my blog. Too bad that, on the whole, it's probably the least interesting of my election posts.

2006 Gubernatorial Election Rundown

Thirty-six governorships are up for election this year. The "midterm" elections (that is, the congressional elections between presidential elections) are popular for state elections on the theory that, without a presidential race to pay attention to, voters will pay more attention to the state races. A few oddball states hold their state elections in odd-numbered years, which would seem the way to go to get even more attention on the state races, if you really want that sort of thing (off the top of my head, Virginia and New Jersey hold theirs the year after a presidential election, and Louisiana and Mississippi hold theirs the year before a presidential election). The Republicans currently hold a 28-22 advantage, and hold 22 of the 26 up for election this year. Their chances of holding that majority look slimmer than their chances of holding the House, as several open seats are as good as lost (there are ten open seats this year, of which nine are currently held by Republicans, making it all the more difficult to maintain their lead).

First, the incumbents who seem likely to hold their position:

Republicans: (11)
Alabama -- Bob Riley
California -- Arnold Schwarzenegger
Connecticut -- Jodi Rell
Georgia -- Sonny Perdue
Hawaii -- Linda Lingle
Nebraska -- Dave Heineman
Rhode Island -- Donald Carcieri
South Carolina -- Mark Sanford
South Dakota -- Mike Rounds
Texas -- Rick Perry
Vermont -- Jim Douglas

Democrats: (9)
Arizona -- Janet Napolitano
Kansas -- Kathleen Sebelius
Maine -- John Baldacci
New Hampshire -- John Lynch
New Mexico -- Bill Richardson
Oklahoma -- Brad Henry
Pennsylvania -- Ed Rendell
Tennessee -- Phil Bredesen
Wyoming -- Dave Freudenthal

Incumbents facing stiffer opposition (though stiffer may not mean stiff):

Republicans:
Maryland -- Bob Ehrlich. First elected in 2002, with Michael Steele (who is now running for U.S. Senate) as his running mate, Ehrlich is in a tough fight with former Baltimore mayor Martin O'Malley. The last two nonpartisan polls here gave O'Malley a one-point edge. According to exit polls, Ehrlich did well (for a Republican) among blacks in 2002 with Steele on the ticket, it will be interesting to see how well he does this time around. The conventional wisdom says that Steele energizes a somewhat larger than average black turnout behind him, and the question for that would be whether they split their vote, or also vote for the Republican Ehrlich. This is one of the biggest races to watch come election night. I'm thinking Ehrlich pulls it off at the moment, but I might revise that.

Minnesota -- Tim Pawlenty. He managed to win with only 44% of the vote in 2002, thanks to an Independence Party candidate who garnered 16%. While there are an Independence Party candidate and a Green Party candidate on the ballot this year, along with a few other minor candidates, they figure to pull closer to 10% combined this year, so Pawlenty will need to up his share of the vote if he wants another term. If he manages to win re-election, he's been mentioned as a possible darkhorse candidate for the 2008 GOP presidential nomination, or possibly the nominee for vice president (though there's a whole thing that I'll go into about governors being potential VP nominees -- or, actually, I've probably gone through it before on here, just not anytime remotely recently). Three of the most recent polls give Mike Hatch, the Democratic Farmer Labor nominee (that's the name of the Democrats in Minnesota), a one point lead. This is another race I intend to watch very closely on election night. It could have had an interesting senate race, as well, but Mark Kennedy's (the Republican) campaign never got off to the start it needed. Still, a couple of U.S. House races in the state are somewhat competitive and these races could affect each other. I'm leaning towards Pawlenty pulling this one off, but, once again, reserve the right to change my mind.

Democrats:
Oregon -- Ted Kulongoski. Despite the unpopularity of Kulongoski, Republican challenger Ron Saxton is still down by seven in the latest polls. Perhaps in a less blue state, or a better national climate for Republicans. It looks like Kulongoski will keep his job.

Wisconsin -- James Doyle. A very purple state looks to have a very close governor's race. Doyle leads Republican Mark Green in most recent polls, but the lead tends to be in the 2 to 6 point range (for those of you who use Real Clear Politics, they really shouldn't have either the Zogby or the University of Wisconsin polls in their average; as for the WPR one, it stands as an outlier and I'd be interested in seeing its internals to find out why). This is probably the Republicans' best chance to knock off an incumbent Democrat governor. At the moment, I'm thinking Doyle's survival is the most likely outcome, but I will review that further before the election.

Illinois -- Rod Blagojevich. The incumbent went from potential presidential contender to the most unpopular governor the Democrats have (well, potentially Blanco). Judy Baar Topinkais his challenger, but it looks like Illinois is too blue for the Republicans this year. After looking vulnerable in the spring, Blagojevich is looking much safer, with only one poll placing his lead at less than 7 since mid-September (although that poll, giving him a lead of 4, was one of the most recent). Well, I suppose an unpopular Democrat staying in office isn't an entirely bad thing for Republicans.

Michigan -- Jennifer Granholm. Finally, a democrat whose unpopularity isn't totally their own fault. Michigan's bad economy is hurting Granholm, so it's really not her, only the policies that she supports (though, once again in fairness, Michigan wasn't looking too good when she took over). Republican Dick DeVos had the lead or was competitive in polling from mid-March through the end of August, but Granholm started to pull away in September, and October polls have generally given her a lead in the 5-10 point range. This is another state with a competitive Senate race (at least somewhat), and the fortunes of the candidates are somewhat joined. DeVos seems more likely to win than Bouchard. I'm thinking Democrat retention here, but I'll see if I can be convinced otherwise in the next few days.

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Well, I don't have time to do the other races justice right now, but I wanted to post the incumbent races rather than just save this post for another day. The open races, in short:

Republican-held seats that look lost:
New York
Massachusetts
Ohio
Colorado
Arkansas

Republican-held seats that look better (though not in the clear):
Florida
Nevada
Alaska
Idaho (looks to be in the most trouble right now, very tight)

Democrat-held seat that's close:
Iowa

I'll either update these races on this post, or do a new one for open seats.

I was going to post my poll closing time/race watch list, but I typed it up at work and the floppy drive there seems to be busted. Hopefully, I remember to take my flash drive to retrieve it today.

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Update: rundown of the open seats:

Florida: Republican Charlie Crist leads Democrat Jim Davis. The last poll showing a Davis lead was in May. Still, most polls in the past month have put Crist's lead at less than ten points, which is enough for me to declare the race competitive. I'm going with Crist winning this won, but how well he does could have a large impact on a couple of House races, so it's something I'll be watching.

Nevada: Republican Jim Gibbons leads Democrat Dina Titus. Only one poll has shown Titus with a lead, and it was one of those screwy Zogby polls, so I don't place much stock in it. The three most recent non-Zogby polls have given Gibbons leads of two, four, and six. The dems were making a huge play here in Nevada, going after the Republican-held governorship, senate seat, and two house seats (the third house seat is held by a democrat), and it looks like they'll fall short on all four.

Alaska: Republican Sarah Palin is up against Democrat former governor (and 2004 Senate election loser) Tony Knowles. Republican Governor Frank Murkowski is extermely unpopular right now, and came in third place among the three major candidates in the Republican primary, garnering less than 20% of the vote (Palin received just over 50%). Murkowski has done many things to alienate voters, including appointing his daughter to the U.S. Senate seat he vacated to take the governor's position, though she managed to overcome charges of nepotism to beat Knowles in 2004. His unpopularity shouldn't really affect Palin. Knowles, while he won two gubernatorial elections, never received 50% of the vote, so he's not as strong a candidate as might be expected. The last poll to have Knowles up was in June, though one poll in early October had a tie, and one in late October gave Palin only a one point lead. Still, while it looks to be close, Palin should win this one.

Idaho: Republican Butch Otter faces Democrat Jerry Brady. Polling data on this race is sparse, with only three polls released in the last month. Mason-Dixon (the one non-partisan polling company I recognize in this race) gives Otter a one point lead. A democrat polling firm gave Brady a two point lead, but party polls tend to boost their own candidates by a few points. A poll released by Greg Smith and Associates, which seems to be an Idahoan polling firm, gives Brady a five point lead but shows a remarkable 20% undecided (it also gives the dem candidate in Idaho Congressional District 1 a four point elad, with 25% undecided); anybody familiar with political polling will tell you that this close to an election, havnig that many undecideds is fishy. The Mason-Dixon poll had 12% undecided, which is still pretty high. I'll look more into this race, but it certainly looks like it could go either way.

Iowa: Republican Congressman Jim Nussle and Democrat Secretary of State Chet Culver are tussling in the lone open seat currently held by a democrat. Culver has lead in most recent polling, but hasn't put this away just yet. A couple of competitve house races in the state (including Nussle's old seat) keep this interesting as well. I'd say it's leaning democrat, but this is another race that I'll look into more over the next couple of days.

New York: Lost cause for Republicans. Democrat Attorney General Eliot Spitzer has had a lead of at least 45 points in each of the last three polls over Republican John Faso. It never looked good for the Republicans, and it's completely gone now.

Massachusetts: Incumbent Mitt Romney would have made it a contest, at least, but Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey has been polling down more than twenty points to Democrat Deval Patrick. Democrat takeover.

Ohio: As much as I like Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, Democrat Congressman Ted Strickland has held a pretty consistent twenty point lead. Ohio is a tough climate for Republicans, but Blackwell is not well connected with the state Republican establishment, so it had seemed like he would have a chance. The senate race here also looks a lot worse than many thought it would, and the two combined could cause trouble for House races here.

Colorado: Democrat Bill Ritter, Jr., holds a lead ranging from 12 to 22 points in the latest polls over Congressman Bob Beauprez. Zogby had Beauprez up by one, but, well, it's Zogby.

Arkansas: Republican former congressman Asa Hutchinson trails Democrat state Attorney General Mike Beebe by 12 to 20 points in three of the last four polls, but the fourth has Hutchinson up 3. Odd, but it looks like the Arkansas governor's mansion will hold another Democrat.