Why the Democrats are wrong and other meanderings

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Location: Metro Phoenix, Arizona, United States

I'm too lazy to type anything about me. Read my blog and I'm sure you'll eventually learn a few things.

Thursday, December 27, 2007

2008 Hall of Fame Voting

Ballots from the BBWAA must be postmarked by December 31, and results will be announced January 8.

The players I'm marking on my imaginary ballot:
Bert Blyleven
Tommy John
Tim Raines

Others are close, but no cigar, doing to some factor or other. Morris has his 3.90 ERA; while adjusting it for ballpark helps, his ERA+ is still only 105, meaning five percent better than league average, which really isn't quite enough to make it into the hall. Rice benefitted from having his home games at Fenway. Dawson had a career OBP of .323 while the league average for that period was .332. Gossage was a reliever, and I believe I've talked about the inferiority of relievers relative to starters elsewhere (though he certainly merits more consideration than any other eligible reliever). Lee Smith used to be the career saves leader -- whoop-de-doo, he managed to be on the leading edge of accumulating a meaningless stat. McGwire I'm leaving off due to the steroids mess -- would he be Hall-worthy sans steroids? Dropping 1998-2000 from his stat totals (in 2000, he missed significant time due to injury, but his rate stats pointed towards another 60+ homer year had he been healthy; taking out these three seasons still leaves his 52-homer 1996 and his 58-homer 1997) would result in his career OPS dropping 53 points (36 from slugging, 17 from OBP). Dropping the other two previously mentioned seasons would drop it another 44 points (32 from slugging, 12 from OBP).

Keith Law's non-ESPN blog appears to be keeping track of the balloting results that have been reported so far here. Currently, there are 62 ballots reporting, and the 545 ballots cast last year were a record, so I figure it's safe to call that 11 percent of the total. He has Gossage at 90%, Blyleven at 71%, Dawson and Rice at 68%, and nobody else reaching 50%. I figure those numbers are more likely to go down than up (and I especially figure that Gossage will nto get 90% of the vote). I believe Gossage will get in this year, but I think he'll come in a tad under 80%. I also think that, despite being more deserving, Blyleven's total will be below Dawson and Rice. I don't have any solid evidence to support this, but I have a gut feeling that Blyleven's supporters are considerably more likely to publish their votes. I suppose it's tied to a belief that those who believe in sabermetrics are more likely to publish their votes (and sabermetricians are considerably more likely to support Blyleven and not support Dawson or Rice). I believe that Gossage, Rice, Dawson, and Blyleven will each improve on their vote totals from last year, when they received 71.2, 63.5, 56.7, and 47.7 percent of the vote, respectively. I think Mark McGwire will improve on his 23.5%, as I think that for several voters it was a one-time protest thing (heck, a couple of them even said so). I also believe that Lee Smith will see a decline; he's no longer the record holder for saves, which probably played a large role in his drop from 45% to 39.8% last year, even after the media hoopla surrounding the transition of the record from Smith to Hoffman served to talk up Smith's "worthiness" for the Hall. I'm less certain about that last one, due to the weakness of this year's candidate class, compared to last year's with Gwynn and Ripken, but I do think he'll come in closer to 36-37 percent of the vote.

It's interesting to look at all the players eligible who didn't make it on the ballot as well. I've been paying attention to baseball long enough that I actually recognize a good many of the names, and remember a few of them (eight of them were even all-stars at some point in their career). Notable among them are Andy Benes, Dennis Cook, Delino DeShields, Mike Morgan (who pretty much everyone had to hear about at some point, as he played on twelve different teams in his career, including my beloved Cubs and my hometown Diamondbacks), Greg Swindell, John Valentin (who converted an unassisted triple play), and Mark Wohlers (best known for appearing on eight Braves' playoff teams). I'm not saying those were the best of those left off the ballot, as I didn't bother to take an in-depth look, but I imagine there's a large degree of overlap.

I think this year's Veteran's Committee vote was entirely too lenient. Also, too many people thinking it would only be a successful rules change if people got voted in. I think the number of people let in shows how unsuccessful the rules change was. Many people have pointed to the union rep whose name I can't remember and ask why he didn't get in, and, I have to admit, they have a point. If those others got in, why not union rep man? I'm not saying that he does belong there; I'm merely saying that if the standards were such that all the others got in, then he probably should have as well.

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Monday, December 24, 2007

Lights, Please

"And there were in the same country shepherds abiding in the fields, keeping watch over their flocks by night. And lo, the angel of the Lord came upon them, and the glory of the lord shone round about them, and they were sore afraid. And the angel said unto them, Fear not, for behold, I bring unto you good tidings of great joy, which shall be to all people. For unto you this day is born in the City of Bethlehem, a Savior, which is Christ the Lord. And this shall be a sign unto you; you shall find the babe wrapped in swaddling clothes and lying in a manger. And suddenly there was with the angel, a multitude of the heavenly host, praising God, and saying, 'Glory to God in the highest, and on Earth peace, good will toward men.'"

That's what Christmas is all about, Charlie Brown.


Merry Christmas.