Slighty Past Mid-Season Baseball Notes
Yeah, it's been awhile. I'll try to catch up on a few things in the coming days. First, baseball.
The Yankees and Cubs have done a good job of getting back into contention after a lot of people started declaring them out, especially the Yankees. It never made much sense to rule them out, but logical reasoning is not something that goes with Yankee-hatred. Primarily, people get obsessed with won-loss record and don't bother looking at anything else. True, the Yankees did not have a very good record, and true, the Yankees themselves were not happy with where they were, but it's best to look behind the record to see what's really going on. Most notably, as something I intend to invoke with other teams later in this post, run differential is a better indicator of future performance than won-loss record. Luck (chance, whatever you wish to call it) is a factor for success, or lack thereof, in baseball in everything from getting a hit to winning a game. Run differential does a much better job of eliminating luck than the won-loss record does. The Yankees had badly underperformed their run differential all season long, as they had one of the best run differentials, but a losing record until recently. In terms of total runs, they currently have the largest differential, though Boston's is better as theirs has come in a lower run-scoring environment (which is to say, their pitching has been more competent). This leads nicely into my next point, the rash of injuries to Yankees pitchers. They've had other injury problems as well, but position player injuries have been more the typical rate, while those to starting pitchers occurred at an obscene rate. When you consider adding back in pitchers returning from injury, plus Clemens, you have to expect better pitching to go with the stellar offense. Even without making any adjustments based on adding the pitchers back to the Yankees' roster, run differential would suggest the Yankees catching the Indians in the wild card race at this point. There's also the strength of schedule issue. The Yankees-Red Sox season series was almost over by early June. While that obviously does not help the Yankees in their efforts to win the division from this point forward, it does indicate that most of their games against one of their strongest opponents came during their early season depletion. Now, I'm not saying all of this to say that the Yankees will make the playoffs (though I do think they will), I'm saying that it was ridiculous to count the Yankees out of the playoff picture. For those following along at home, the Yankees are now only 4.5 games back in the wild card and 6.5 games back in the division, neither of which could be called insurmountable by any reasonable person. As to the Cubs, most people had stopped discounting them before the all-star break, but, once again, run differential (plus, you really had to figure Zambrano, in the least, was going to turn things around).
The two most over-hyped teams at this point in the season: Diamondbacks and Mariners. Look at the run differentials. Neither team will be making the playoffs, especially not the Diamondbacks. Even after winning their last five, and sitting seven games over .500, the Diamonbacks have been outscored by 22 runs this season. I especially find it hillarious when the same person calls the Diamondbacks a great team and the Giants a horrible one. The Giants have the better run differential. The difference is that the Diamondbacks have played six games ahead of what their run differential would suggest, while the Giants have played six games behind. Now, the difference in run differential between the two teams is small enough that you can make a compelling case for the Diamondbacks being the better team, but to say that they're "great" while the Giants are "horrible" is absurd.
Speaking of over-hyped teams, remember who I called the most over-hyped team at the beginning of the season? The White Sox, who are fighting with the Royals to avoid the cellar in the AL Central (and, I might add, the Royals have the better run differential) after being highly touted as a contender for the division title (most didn't expect them to win it, mind you, but they were expected to contend).
Craig Biggio is closing in on the all-time hit-by-pitch mark. This is something I've followed well before the national media started to do so (I believe I mentioned it in my 2006 season preview, but it's something I've had my eye on since well before then). I had originally thought he'd have the record by now, but the last few seasons have seen a decline in the number of pitches he's taken to the body. It's been pronounced enough that I think it's more than random chance, though I can't really comment as to whether the pitchers are working harder to avoid him, or he's not trying to get hit as much. I had once thought that Jason Kendall would overtake him, but Kendall has also slowed down on this front and given his general ineptness around the plate, may not get a chance to stick around long enough to reach the mark. At any rate, when (if) Biggio does set the record, I hope he rounds first and tries for second (yes, that's a reference to his 3,000th hit). As long as we're on Biggio, in his press conference announcing his retirement, I couldn't help but notice his statement to the effect that he didn't want to be a washed-up player, and wondered if he'd seen his play recently. Of course, he had a great game that night, and a nice run right around the time of his 3,000th hit (including a five-hit game that night).
More thoughts to come later.
The Yankees and Cubs have done a good job of getting back into contention after a lot of people started declaring them out, especially the Yankees. It never made much sense to rule them out, but logical reasoning is not something that goes with Yankee-hatred. Primarily, people get obsessed with won-loss record and don't bother looking at anything else. True, the Yankees did not have a very good record, and true, the Yankees themselves were not happy with where they were, but it's best to look behind the record to see what's really going on. Most notably, as something I intend to invoke with other teams later in this post, run differential is a better indicator of future performance than won-loss record. Luck (chance, whatever you wish to call it) is a factor for success, or lack thereof, in baseball in everything from getting a hit to winning a game. Run differential does a much better job of eliminating luck than the won-loss record does. The Yankees had badly underperformed their run differential all season long, as they had one of the best run differentials, but a losing record until recently. In terms of total runs, they currently have the largest differential, though Boston's is better as theirs has come in a lower run-scoring environment (which is to say, their pitching has been more competent). This leads nicely into my next point, the rash of injuries to Yankees pitchers. They've had other injury problems as well, but position player injuries have been more the typical rate, while those to starting pitchers occurred at an obscene rate. When you consider adding back in pitchers returning from injury, plus Clemens, you have to expect better pitching to go with the stellar offense. Even without making any adjustments based on adding the pitchers back to the Yankees' roster, run differential would suggest the Yankees catching the Indians in the wild card race at this point. There's also the strength of schedule issue. The Yankees-Red Sox season series was almost over by early June. While that obviously does not help the Yankees in their efforts to win the division from this point forward, it does indicate that most of their games against one of their strongest opponents came during their early season depletion. Now, I'm not saying all of this to say that the Yankees will make the playoffs (though I do think they will), I'm saying that it was ridiculous to count the Yankees out of the playoff picture. For those following along at home, the Yankees are now only 4.5 games back in the wild card and 6.5 games back in the division, neither of which could be called insurmountable by any reasonable person. As to the Cubs, most people had stopped discounting them before the all-star break, but, once again, run differential (plus, you really had to figure Zambrano, in the least, was going to turn things around).
The two most over-hyped teams at this point in the season: Diamondbacks and Mariners. Look at the run differentials. Neither team will be making the playoffs, especially not the Diamondbacks. Even after winning their last five, and sitting seven games over .500, the Diamonbacks have been outscored by 22 runs this season. I especially find it hillarious when the same person calls the Diamondbacks a great team and the Giants a horrible one. The Giants have the better run differential. The difference is that the Diamondbacks have played six games ahead of what their run differential would suggest, while the Giants have played six games behind. Now, the difference in run differential between the two teams is small enough that you can make a compelling case for the Diamondbacks being the better team, but to say that they're "great" while the Giants are "horrible" is absurd.
Speaking of over-hyped teams, remember who I called the most over-hyped team at the beginning of the season? The White Sox, who are fighting with the Royals to avoid the cellar in the AL Central (and, I might add, the Royals have the better run differential) after being highly touted as a contender for the division title (most didn't expect them to win it, mind you, but they were expected to contend).
Craig Biggio is closing in on the all-time hit-by-pitch mark. This is something I've followed well before the national media started to do so (I believe I mentioned it in my 2006 season preview, but it's something I've had my eye on since well before then). I had originally thought he'd have the record by now, but the last few seasons have seen a decline in the number of pitches he's taken to the body. It's been pronounced enough that I think it's more than random chance, though I can't really comment as to whether the pitchers are working harder to avoid him, or he's not trying to get hit as much. I had once thought that Jason Kendall would overtake him, but Kendall has also slowed down on this front and given his general ineptness around the plate, may not get a chance to stick around long enough to reach the mark. At any rate, when (if) Biggio does set the record, I hope he rounds first and tries for second (yes, that's a reference to his 3,000th hit). As long as we're on Biggio, in his press conference announcing his retirement, I couldn't help but notice his statement to the effect that he didn't want to be a washed-up player, and wondered if he'd seen his play recently. Of course, he had a great game that night, and a nice run right around the time of his 3,000th hit (including a five-hit game that night).
More thoughts to come later.
Labels: baseball
posted by DC | 12:51 PM
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