A More Thorough Listing of Competitive House Races
Since I have free time, and I'm a political geek of high order, I've decided to go a little more in-depth with competitive House races nationwide. I'll probably do 40-50 Republican-held seats, plus the few Democrat-held seats that Republicans have a shot at. There are lists of seats vulnerable to party-switch at Real Clear Politics (listed in order of their likelihood to switch, and seperated based on which party holds them; also a numerical list here), the Green Papers has its own list of where it thinks the races are (each and every House, Senate, and Governor seat up for election; scroll down a bit), and Chuck Todd has a list of his 60 most vulnerable House seats. Michael Barone gave some predictions, categorizing each of RCP's 50 most vulnerable House seats as either Sure Demo, Lean Demo, Lean Repub, or Sure Repub, and only has the Democrats netting a sixteen seat gain (giving them a 219-216 advantage). I'm not fully endorsing any of these lists, but they aren't bad as far as starting points go. I'll go through races in alphanumeric order, except seperating them based on what party currently holds them (or, in the case of the four vacant seats, which party most recently held them).
I guess I'll go with good news first, and go with the potential pick-ups for the Republicans. There's a good write-up on the seven most-vulnerable Dem-held seats by Jim Geraghty on NRO. For whatever it's worth, consulting the above lists, the Green Papers lists them all as leaning towards the Dems, Real Clear Politics has Georgia-12 as a toss-up, and the others as lean Dem (except West Virginia-1, which isn't listed), and Chuck Todd lists Georgia-12 as the 29th most vulnerable, and Illinois-08 and Georgia-08 as 41st and 42nd, respectively, having dropped the others from his list with his last update. RCP lists them at 31, 40, and 39, in that order. While the numerical rankings would not have looked at all good in 2002 or especially 2004, they are not all that bad this year (although, obviously, I'd prefer they were ranked higher).
Georgia-08: Congressman Jim Marshall defends his seat against Mac Collins, the former holder of the seat. Collins stepped down in 2004 to try for Zell Miller's old Senate seat, but was defeated in the Republican primary. One more note: after writing this, while working on the Republican-held seats, RCP moved this seat from "leans Dem" to "toss up" so that's a good sign. RCP
Georgia-12: Congressman John Barrow defends his seat against former Congressman Max Burns, the man he defeated for the seat in 2004. RCP
Illinois-08: Congresswoman Melissa Bean against Dave McSweeney. The last two polls have had Bean up by three and five points. Democrat governor Blagojevich is unpopular, but is favored to win re-election, so it's unclear what effect that might have on the race. RCP
Indiana-7: Congresswoman Julia Carson defends her seat against Erik Dickerson. One recent poll showed Dickerson up three, but it apparently included bits of the more Republican Districts 4 and 5 in its poll. A Research 2000 poll that presumably did a better job of staying in the lines has Carson up 48-43, with the rest undecided. Interestingly, Dickerson has managed to do this well on his own, without help from the Republican party (whose prefered candidate he defeated in the primary). Carson made a big stink about the state voter ID law when she showed up at the polling place with her Congressional ID, which does not have an expiration date, and so does not meet the voter ID requirements (she was allowed to cast a provisional ballot, and later showed her Driver's License and had her vote counted; despite her claims, many believe she intentionally tried to find and exploit for publicity a problem with the ID law, but I'm not too worried about members of Congress losing their ability to vote). Carson has had several close elections, and managed to come through each one. She's had some health issues, which could influence voters. RCP
Iowa-3: Congressman Leonard Boswell against Jeff Lamberti. All the polls I've seen show Boswell ahead by 11 or 12, which does not bode well for Lamberti. There's an outside chance there, but I wouldn't count on it. RCP
Vermont (AL): Socialist Bernie Sander's seat that he gave up to run for Senate, this race features Democrat Peter Welch and Republican Martha Rainville. I know, it seems hard to believe, a Republican in Vermont, but they ahve a Republican governor who won election in 2002, was re-elected in 2004, and is cruising to re-election this year (they have two-year terms for governors in Vermont). Still, Welch's lead has grown with each nonpartisan that comes out (3, 6, 8, 10), and this race is looking much less promising. At least there will be no more counting as an "Independent" someone who is basically a hardline Democrat (in the House, that is; he'll be replacing the Senate's lone "Independent"). RCP
West Virginia-1: Congressman Alan Mollohan aginst Chris Wakim. The lone poll I've seen here was done at the end of August, and had Mollohan up 10, but it's so old that it's accuracy is more than a little questionable. I don't assert that Wakim is actually up 10, and, in fact, Mollohan might be up by more than 10; I'm just saying the poll isn't very valuable. West Virginia really likes their incumbents. However, Mollohan has been plagued by scandals. Amusingly, he was the ranking member (which is, essentially, the minority party equivalent of chair) of the House Ethics Committee (he was convinced to step down). He was sending federal dollars to non-profits that his campaign contributors worked for, had some shady land deals, and some other things that, frankly, are not as uncommon in Washington as they should be. I really wish somebody would poll this race (non-partisan, that is).
And now for the Republican-held seats that are looking ... less than safe. This isn't necessarily the 50 most vulnerable; mostly I went down the RCP list, added a few from memory, and was at 49, so I added OH-12 (which was in Chuck Todd's top 50) to make an even 50. While I've heard a few people speculate about Dem gains approaching or exceeding 50, I very much doubt it will happen, so this list should include every seat that the Republicans lose, plus a good number that they don't (a number that will vary wildly based on how many seats they lose). If there is indeed a wave, and it gets to 35+ seats, you might see one or two seats not on this list that are lost. I doubt that will happen, I'm just saying is all.
Arizona-1: Congressman Rick Renzi faces Ellen Simon. Very little polling has been done in this race (a whopping three polls), and the polling is not very definitive. Both polls since mid-October have Renzi up, but neither have Renzi above 50%, which you really need before you can start considering a race remotely safe. Just a note for those who might click on the RCP link: the most recent poll (as of this typing) shows Renzi ahead 41-38, with 6 undecided. Yeah, I know, it doesn't quite add up. I looked at the poll internals, and they were going by those who were "strong" supporters of each candidate. The likely voter breakdown, without leaners, was 47-42 in favor of Renzi. I'd say that Renzi wins this unless it's a really bad night for the GOP, but it's closer than I like. RCP
Arizona-5: Congressman J.D. Hayworth is getting my vote for a seventh term (first time voting for him, though, as this is the first time I'm registered in his district) against Harry Mitchell. Hayworth has been in several close elections before, and emerged victorious each time. Mitchell is a former mayor of Tempe and is popular for some reason (college town, too many hippies). Mitchell, as I previously noted, was also caught stealing his opponent's yard signs in a previous campaign. I always thought Hayworth would pull this race off, but the only poll in the last couple of weeks has put Mitchell up by 2 (the first non-partisan poll to put him ahead). The Arizona Republic has turned against Hayworth, which hasn't helped him, and has been portraying Mitchell as a centrist (he isn't). RCP
Arizona-8: Open seat (Jim Kolbe is retiring). Republican Randy Graf faces Democrat Gabby Giffords. Graf defeated the candidate backed by more establishment Republicans in the primary. Non-partisan polls have given Giffords an 8-12 point lead in this race, and, although I don't find any of the polling firms here particularly reliable, Graf certainly has an uphill climb if he wants to win. It won't be the blowout some were expecting after Graf won the primary, and I think he'll reach 45%, but 50% would seem to be beyond his reach (he could technically win with less than 50%, but it's not something to count on). RCP
California-4: Congressman John Doolittle defends his seat against Charles Brown. Aside from one poll which showed a tie, every other poll in the last month has Doolittle up by at least 7 points. Looks good for Doolittle. Plus, c'mon, Charlie Brown isn't going to win an election. RCP
California-11: Congressman Richard Pombo against Jerry McNerney. I see only one non-partisan poll in this race, and it has McNerney up 2, but it's from the same poll that had the previous race tied, so I'm skeptical. RCP
Colorado-4: Incumbent Marilyn Musgrave tries to hold off a challenge from Angie Paccione. While polls in early and mid-October had Musgrave up 10, the last two polls have Musgrave up 1 and Paccione up 3. RCP
Colorado-7: Open seat (Bob Beauprez is running for governor). Republican Rick O'Donnell and Democrat Ed Perlmutter face-off. This is one of the Republicans' most vulnerable seats. Perlmutter opened a double-digit lead in September, and although there were indications of tightening in October, it's back to double-digits. Republicans should count this race as gone. RCP
Connecticut-2: Congressman Rob Simmons and challenger Rob Courtney. This is widely considered the safest (or, perhaps more accurately, least-vulnerable) of the three Connecticut seats. The latest poll does have Courtney up 1, but that's well within the margin of error. RCP
Connecticut-4: Congressman Chris Shays and Democrat Diane Farrell. Chris Shays isn't exactly known for endearing himself to conservatives, but after the Foley scandal broke, Shays responded to Ted Kennedy's moral lecturing with a reference to Chappaquiddick, which instantly increased his standing among conservatives. This race is generally considered slightly more vulnerable than CT-5, though the two are rather close in that regard. Shays has long been a favored Republican of the New York Times, but they've turned on him and endorsed his opponent; kinda shows what cozying up to the Times is worth for Republicans. Polls have been all over in this race, and I'm certainly not buying either extreme (Shays up 9 or down 7). RCP
Connecticut-5: Congressman Nancy Johnson and Chris Murphy. I'm thinking this one is actually slightly more vulnerable than the previous one. Johnson hasn't done well in the recent polls, down 3, 4, and 8. While none were done by one of my prefered polling firms, I can't readily dismiss them when they're all in that direction. RCP
Florida-13: Open seat (Katherine Harris is running for Senate). Republican Vern Buchanan and Democrat Christine Jennings compete for this seat. The only non-partisan polls have been a pair of RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics polls, which I don't particularly trust (probably better than Zogby, though), which have Jennings up by 2 and 3 points. RCP
Florida-16: Open seat (Mark Foley resigned in disgrace). Republican Joe Negron (under Foley's name) faces Democrat Tim Mahoney. Many considered this seat a lost cause for Republicans when the Foley scandal broke. I disagreed, and others are coming around to my view (I'm not saying it's a slam dunk for the Republicans, either). It was downgraded from top-3 status by both RCP and Chuck Todd to 10th and 12th, respectively. Since Foley's resignation came so close to the lection, Republicans couldn't replace him on the ballot, but, under Florida law, could designate all his votes to go to someone else. Thus, Florida Republicans started the amusing "Punch Foley for Negron" campaign, including this memorable website. The Republicans also won a court battle, allowing them to post signs in polling places stating that a vote for Foley goes to Negron. I had heard something about Republicans making inroads here with the aforementioned campaign, but don't see any recent polls on RCP; it may be something I heard about Republican internal polling. RCP
Florida-22: Congressman Clay Shaw against Ron Klein. Shaw was ahead through mid-October, but the last few polls have trended towards Klein. RCP
Idaho-1: Open seat (Butch Otter is runnign for governor). Republican Bill Sali and Democrat Larry Grant square off in this race. Two polls have Sali up, and one has Grant up. However, the one that has Grant up has an absurd 25% undecided, so I wouldn't place too much stock in it. Both RCP and Chuck Todd list this as the 50th most vulnerable seat in the House, and I'm inclined to agree that it is not too likely to switch parties. RCP
Illinois-6: Open seat (Henry Hyde is retiring). Republican Peter Roskam goes up against Democrat Tammy Duckworth. Aside from a Zogby poll showing Duckworth up 14, all the polls in October varied form Duckworth up 1 to Roskam up 4, so I'm inclined to dismiss the Zogby poll (even moreso than usual). Looks to be very close, and I'd give Roskam the slight edge. RCP
Indiana-2: Congressman Chris Chocola (has to be one fo my favorite names in Congress) goes for re-election against Joe Donnelly. The last two non-Zogby polls had Donnelly up 3. Chocola has narrowed the gap, but needs good turnout to put him over the top on election night. RCP
Indiana-8: Congressman John Hostettler against Brad Ellsworth. Hostettler has faced tough campaigns before, and even been counted as lost before, but still emerged victorious. Hostettler has never been a traditional campaigner, and refuses all PAC money. The last two polls show him down by 7 and 10 points, so, while I'm not ready to pronounce his campaign dead just yet, things do not look good. Ellsworth is a fairly conservative county sheriff in the district, which could help put him over the top. As a random aside, all of my grandparents live in this congressional district. RCP
Indiana-9: Congressman Mike Sodrel faces Baron Hill, the Congressman he ousted in 2004 after losing his challenge to him in 2002. In the 2002 campaign, Hill won by 9500 votes, and Sodrel won by 1500 in 2004. There's no reason to think this year will be any different in terms of the closeness of this election. Although this is considered the least vulnerable of these three Indiana seats, it's still ranked 19th on RCP and 16th by Chuck Todd, so, in a situation that involved Republicans retaining the House, it would still not be implausible for Republicans to lose all three seats. The latest poll puts Sodrel ahead by 2, but this is his first lead in the race. I have a gut feeling that Sodrel will pull this one out, but it will be a nail-biter. RCP
Iowa-1: Open seat (Jim Nussle is runnign for governor). Republican Mike Whalen competes against Democrat Bruce Braley. I'm inclined to dismiss the latest poll, showing Braley up 21. Still, most polls have given Braley a double-digit lead, and this is one of the more left-leaning portions of the state. Looks likely to flip parties. RCP
Kentucky-2: Congressman Ron Lewis defends his seat against Mike Weaver. This was not really expected to be a vulnerable seat, but a Democrat poll put Weaver up 46-43, so I figured I should include it. Partisan polls skew towards their client, though, and I find it unlikely that Weaver will win on election day. That said, this is one of the earlier polls to close, and if he does pull off the win, it looks to be a very bad day for the Republicans. RCP not available (as near as I can tell)
Kentucky-3: Congressman Anne Northup is running against John Yarmuth. Polling is inconsistent in this race, varying from Northup being up 6 to Yarmuth being up 8. Northup is a veteran of close races (with the exception of 2004), and has been a top target of Democrats since 1998. RCP
Kentucky-4: Congressman Geoff Davis faces Ken Lucas. Lucas is fairly conservative, and formerly held this seat from 1998-2004, when he refused to seek re-election because he had made a term-limits pledge in 1998 (which does not apply to non-contiguous terms). Not sure off the top of my head, but I'm thinking Lucas did not support Pelosi as minority leader, which raises the question of whether he'd support her should the Democrats win a narrow majority, including him, in the election for Speaker. Neither candidate has managed a lead outside the margin of error in polling. RCP
Minnesota-1: Congressman Gil Gutknecht, Jr., is up against Tim Walz. This race seems characterized by a lack of polls, as RCP only has two, both with Gutknecht up by a very narrow margin (inside the margin of error). RCP
Minnesota-6: Open seat (Mark Kennedy is running for Senate). Republican Michele Backmann faces Democratic-Farmer Labor nominee Patty Wetterling. A couple of polls had Watterling up in early October (including the always unreliable Star Tribune), but everything else has shown a Backmann lead, including a 7 point advantage in the most recent poll. This seat looks like it will be retained by the Republicans, although I wouldn't count it safe. RCP
Nevada-2: Congressman Jim Gibbons faces Jill Derby. Not high on the list of vulnerable seats, of the five non-partisan polls released in this race, Gibbons has had a lead of 8 in four, and 3 in the other (though one of the 8's was back in May, and, as such, is irrelevent). RCP
Nevada-3: Congressman John Porter and Tessa Hafen face off here. Like the neighboring NV-2, this race is not high on the list of vulnerables, and every poll has given Porter a lead of 7-10. RCP
New Hampshire-2: Congressman Charlie Bass faces Paul Hodes in a repeat of the 2004 election. Bass seems to have thought he could cruise to re-election and took it a little too easy on the campaign trail this year, and has gotten himself into trouble. The UNH tracking poll gives a large lead to Hodes, but I don't really buy that he has a lead of that size. The Research 2000 poll gave Bass a lead of 1, but that, of course, is well within the margin of error, and even without buying the UNH poll at face value, you have to figure that Bass's 1 point lead is more likely an error in his favor than his opponent's. I'm certainly not counting Bass out, but he is not where he wants to be, and he could very well face a disasterous finish against the opponent he beat by 20 points in 2004. RCP
New Jersey-7: Congressman Mike Ferguson and Linda Stender. Ferguson has led in all the polls, oddly with a smaller lead in the non-partisan than in the partisan Democrat polls. The non-partisan polls are all the RTS/CD ones that I don't trust particularly much. Anyways, Ferguson looks to keep this seat. RCP
New Mexico-1: Congressman Heather Wilson faces a stuff challenge from state Attorny General Patricia Madrid in this central New Mexico district (Albuquerque and surroundings). Wilson has faced several tough challenges before, but she tends to pull it off in the end. Madrid has been up in every poll since the beginning of October, except for one partisan Republican poll. RCP
New York-19: Congressman Sue Kelly against John Hall. This is another race that polls oddly. In partisan Democrat polls, Kelly is up, but in RTS/CD polls, Hall is up. As partisan polls tend to support their client, I'm inclined towards believing Kelly is up, and dismissing the RTS/CD polls (which, as mentioned, I do not find the most reliable). RCP
New York-20: Congressman John Sweeney versus Kirsten Gillibrand. When I say I don't particularly trust RTS/CD polls, it's races like this I have most in mind. They've done two polls here, showing Gillibrand with leads of 11 and 13, while no other poll has given Gillibrand a larger lead than 3, including the two partisan Dem polling companies working here. It's also a race that comes to mind when I talk about how screwy polling has been this year, as the RTS/CD poll giving Gillibrand a 13-point lead was conducted Oct 15-16, while a Siena College poll conducted Oct 16-17 gave Sweeney a 14-point lead. I was thinking that Sweeney was going to pull this out, but then a report was released a few days ago saying Sweeney's wife called 911 to report a domestic dispute. Both Sweeney and his wife are denying the accuracy of this report, so the race pretty much comes down to whether voters trust the Sweeneys and think it's dirty politics, or distrust the Sweeneys and think it's dirty secrets. Only one poll has come out since this news broke, a Siena College poll which has Gillibrand up 46-43; Sweeney's favorable rating fell from 49 to 35 between the two SC polls I've mentioned. Still, 46-43 does not at all give this race to Gillibrand. It's been charged that an advisor to Gillibrand, who also advises Hillary Clinton, was behind feeding the story to the press. RCP
New York-24: Open seat (Sherwood Boehlert is retiring). Republican Ray Meier and Democrat Mark Arcuri go at it. The only polls I see here are a Republican one that had Meier up 11 at the end of August, which is old and partisan, and an RTS/CD poll taken in the wake up the Foley scandal, which had Arcuri up 11, but is from a polling firm that doesn't receive my highest marks and had poor timing for an accurate picture of this race, in addition to being nearly a month old. I doubt that Arcuri has an 11 point lead, but I have a hard time rating this race, other than saying it will be tough for the GOP. RCP
New York-25: Congressman James Walsh against Dan Maffei. See the write-up for NY-19; pretty much the exact same thing here. RCP
New York-26: Congressman Tom Reynolds (chairman of the NRCC, the committee tasked with electing Republicans to the House) fights for re-election against Jack Davis, Jr. Reynolds's name popped up in the Foley scandal, which severely hurt him. However, he's recovered to take the lead in recent polls, though a 3-5 point lead isn't spectacularly safe. RCP
New York-29: Congressman Randy Kuhl, Jr., faces Eric Massa. The only polls in the last month are two RTS/CD polls which have Massa up by double digits, but the previus poll, conducted by a partisan Dem polling firm in September, had Kuhl up 5. I'd be more inclined to dismiss the older partisan poll, but RTS/CD polls in NY have skewed so heavily towards the Dems that I'm as doubtful of them. RTS/CD is the new pollster on the block, and New York looks to embarrass them out of existence, or prove them amazing geniuses (I'm leaning towards the former). RCP
North Carolina-11: Congressman Charles Taylor versus Heath Shuler. Polling has given the edge to Shuler, but there are two problems with this. First, the polls are all partisan Dem, Zogby, or RTS/CD, none of which I particularly trust to paint an accurate picture. Second, Taylor was down by 2 in polling going into the 2004 election, but he won 55-45. Not saying I think Taylor's in the lead, just saying I'm skeptical of the polls (the four over the last month have Shuler up 5, 8, 8, and 9). RCP
Ohio-01: Congressman Steve Chabot versus John Cranley, IV. The only nonpartisan poll here is an RTS/CD poll giving Cranley a 2 point lead. Still, this race finishes just outside the top 25 most vulerable seats for both RCP and Todd. RCP
Ohio-02: Congressman Jean Schmidt faces Victoria Wulsin. The latest Survey USA poll has Wulsin up 3, but the one two weeks ago had Schmidt up 8; the question is how much of that is due to real movement and how much to poll fluctuation. Democrats were disappointed by Schmidt's victory in last year's special election for this seat, and she aims to disappoint them again. RCP
Ohio-12: Congressman Pat Tiberi defends his seat against Bob Shamansky (who was elected to a single term in Congress in 1980). The single poll I've seen here gives Tiberi a 5 point lead, but it's an RTS/CD poll. At any rate, this is generally rated further down the list of vulnerable seats and figures to switch only if this is a wave election. RCP
Ohio-15: Congressman Deborah Pryce is challenged by Mary Jo Kilroy. Another race with a disappointing lack of polls, especially since RCP has it ranked 15th and Todd has it ranked 13th on their respective most vulnerable lists. An RTS/CD poll had Kilroy up 12 in early October (even if I trusted the company, I'd want something more recent), but a partisan Dem poll had Pryce up 1 in late September. As that's it for polling in this race, there's little to go on but gut feeling. RCP
Ohio-18: Open seat (Bob Ney resigned in less disgrace than Mark Foley). Republican Joy Padgett is up against Zach Space. Another seatwithout quality polling, though it does have quantity. Padgett was staying within ten points before Bob Ney entere a guilty plea to corruption charges on October 13, and the only poll since then is a Zogby one showing her down 20. Not sure about the magnitude of that poll, but this race is all but lost. RCP
Pennsylvania-04: Congressman Melissa Hart defends her seat against Jason Altmire. Every poll in the last two months has Hart up 4. This seat isn't very vulnerable except in case of a wave. RCP
Pennsylvania-06: Congressman Jim Gerlach faces Lois Murphy, in a rematch of 2004 when Gerlach won by 6,500 votes. Insert my usual complaint about quality polls. In the last month, RTS/CD, Zogby, and partisan Dem polls all gave Murphy leads of 3-6. This is the kind of race the Dems absolutely need to win if they want a wave (note that I do not say winning it is indicative of a wave, merely that not winning is indicative of no wave). RCP
Pennsylvania-07: Congressman Curt Weldon is challenged by Admiral Joe Sestak, Jr., Ret. Weldon is under FBI investigation for allegedly using his position to steer business towards his daughter's lobbying firm. He denies the charges, but images of the FBI removing files from his daughter's home and office, along with those of others related to the charges, do not exactly help his campaign. Weldon may not be dead in the water, but he's in serious trouble. RCP
Pennsylvania-08: Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick runs for re-election against Patrick Murphy. Partisan dem polls and an RTS/CD poll have Murphy up, but everything else shows Fitzpatrick. As such, I lean towards Fitzpatrick. Rather big disagreement on where to rank this race from RCP and Todd, who have it at 38th and 21st, respectively, on their lists of must vulnerable seats. RCP
Pennsylvania-10: Congressman Don Sherwood versus Chris Carney. Sherwood would be cruising to re-election if not for his personal life. A woman filed assault charges against him and sued him for $5.5 million after a five-year affair. He acknowledged the affair, denied the assault charges, and settled the lawsuit out of court. I tend to be skeptical of all seven-figure lawsuits, but this is still bad news for Sherwood. He ran with no Dem opposition in 2004, but is now likely to lose his seat -- not the most common turn of events, but scandal will do that to a man. RCP
Texas-22: Open seat (Tom Delay resigned from Congress). Republican Shelley Sekula-Gibbs is a write-in candidate against Democrat former congressman Nick Lampson. DeLay resigned and withdrew from his re-election effort after winning the primary, which did not allow the Republicans to place someone else on the ballot. While this certainly adds a large handicap to the race for the Republicans, they do have a few things working in their favor. First, this is a very Republican district. Second, there is a special election concurrent with the general election to fill Tom DeLay's remaining term, and her name is on the ballot for that. The campaign has made a big deal about needing to vote twice, and needing to write her name in (actually, it seems that it's an electronic ballot system where the use a ball to scroll through letters and insert them one by one). The elections board will accept misspellings, but has not said which ones it will accept yet, as it figures this could influence the race. Interestingly, the electronic system groups the votes by spelling, and once they say a certain spelling will be accepted, all such spellings will immediately be accepted and counted. The lawyers are getting ready for this one. This race had been ranked most vulnerable by many, but now RCP ranks it 7th and Chuck Todd ranks it 10th. RCP
Virginia-02: Congressman Thelma Drake faces Phil Kellam. Drake is up 2 in a Mason-Dixon poll, and she has had mixed results from the usual suspects. She probably pulls this one off at the end. RCP
Washington-8: Congressman Dave Reichert and Microsoft executive Darcy Burner face off. Survey USA gives Reichert a consistent, if small, lead (he also managed to reach 50% in each). The RTS/CD polls have gone between the candidates within the margin of error. This race leans towards Reichert, though a Dem wave could demoralize his supporters and cost him the seat. RCP
Wisconsin-8: Open seat (Mark Green is running for governor). Republican John Gard and Democrat Steve Kagen battle for this seat. I can't say that I place a lot of faith in the polls for this district. This district does tend somewhat Republican (supporting Bush over Kerry 55-45), and that might be enoguh to carry the day for Gard. RCP
Finally got through all those; this post is probably the most time-consuming in the history of my blog. Too bad that, on the whole, it's probably the least interesting of my election posts.
I guess I'll go with good news first, and go with the potential pick-ups for the Republicans. There's a good write-up on the seven most-vulnerable Dem-held seats by Jim Geraghty on NRO. For whatever it's worth, consulting the above lists, the Green Papers lists them all as leaning towards the Dems, Real Clear Politics has Georgia-12 as a toss-up, and the others as lean Dem (except West Virginia-1, which isn't listed), and Chuck Todd lists Georgia-12 as the 29th most vulnerable, and Illinois-08 and Georgia-08 as 41st and 42nd, respectively, having dropped the others from his list with his last update. RCP lists them at 31, 40, and 39, in that order. While the numerical rankings would not have looked at all good in 2002 or especially 2004, they are not all that bad this year (although, obviously, I'd prefer they were ranked higher).
Georgia-08: Congressman Jim Marshall defends his seat against Mac Collins, the former holder of the seat. Collins stepped down in 2004 to try for Zell Miller's old Senate seat, but was defeated in the Republican primary. One more note: after writing this, while working on the Republican-held seats, RCP moved this seat from "leans Dem" to "toss up" so that's a good sign. RCP
Georgia-12: Congressman John Barrow defends his seat against former Congressman Max Burns, the man he defeated for the seat in 2004. RCP
Illinois-08: Congresswoman Melissa Bean against Dave McSweeney. The last two polls have had Bean up by three and five points. Democrat governor Blagojevich is unpopular, but is favored to win re-election, so it's unclear what effect that might have on the race. RCP
Indiana-7: Congresswoman Julia Carson defends her seat against Erik Dickerson. One recent poll showed Dickerson up three, but it apparently included bits of the more Republican Districts 4 and 5 in its poll. A Research 2000 poll that presumably did a better job of staying in the lines has Carson up 48-43, with the rest undecided. Interestingly, Dickerson has managed to do this well on his own, without help from the Republican party (whose prefered candidate he defeated in the primary). Carson made a big stink about the state voter ID law when she showed up at the polling place with her Congressional ID, which does not have an expiration date, and so does not meet the voter ID requirements (she was allowed to cast a provisional ballot, and later showed her Driver's License and had her vote counted; despite her claims, many believe she intentionally tried to find and exploit for publicity a problem with the ID law, but I'm not too worried about members of Congress losing their ability to vote). Carson has had several close elections, and managed to come through each one. She's had some health issues, which could influence voters. RCP
Iowa-3: Congressman Leonard Boswell against Jeff Lamberti. All the polls I've seen show Boswell ahead by 11 or 12, which does not bode well for Lamberti. There's an outside chance there, but I wouldn't count on it. RCP
Vermont (AL): Socialist Bernie Sander's seat that he gave up to run for Senate, this race features Democrat Peter Welch and Republican Martha Rainville. I know, it seems hard to believe, a Republican in Vermont, but they ahve a Republican governor who won election in 2002, was re-elected in 2004, and is cruising to re-election this year (they have two-year terms for governors in Vermont). Still, Welch's lead has grown with each nonpartisan that comes out (3, 6, 8, 10), and this race is looking much less promising. At least there will be no more counting as an "Independent" someone who is basically a hardline Democrat (in the House, that is; he'll be replacing the Senate's lone "Independent"). RCP
West Virginia-1: Congressman Alan Mollohan aginst Chris Wakim. The lone poll I've seen here was done at the end of August, and had Mollohan up 10, but it's so old that it's accuracy is more than a little questionable. I don't assert that Wakim is actually up 10, and, in fact, Mollohan might be up by more than 10; I'm just saying the poll isn't very valuable. West Virginia really likes their incumbents. However, Mollohan has been plagued by scandals. Amusingly, he was the ranking member (which is, essentially, the minority party equivalent of chair) of the House Ethics Committee (he was convinced to step down). He was sending federal dollars to non-profits that his campaign contributors worked for, had some shady land deals, and some other things that, frankly, are not as uncommon in Washington as they should be. I really wish somebody would poll this race (non-partisan, that is).
And now for the Republican-held seats that are looking ... less than safe. This isn't necessarily the 50 most vulnerable; mostly I went down the RCP list, added a few from memory, and was at 49, so I added OH-12 (which was in Chuck Todd's top 50) to make an even 50. While I've heard a few people speculate about Dem gains approaching or exceeding 50, I very much doubt it will happen, so this list should include every seat that the Republicans lose, plus a good number that they don't (a number that will vary wildly based on how many seats they lose). If there is indeed a wave, and it gets to 35+ seats, you might see one or two seats not on this list that are lost. I doubt that will happen, I'm just saying is all.
Arizona-1: Congressman Rick Renzi faces Ellen Simon. Very little polling has been done in this race (a whopping three polls), and the polling is not very definitive. Both polls since mid-October have Renzi up, but neither have Renzi above 50%, which you really need before you can start considering a race remotely safe. Just a note for those who might click on the RCP link: the most recent poll (as of this typing) shows Renzi ahead 41-38, with 6 undecided. Yeah, I know, it doesn't quite add up. I looked at the poll internals, and they were going by those who were "strong" supporters of each candidate. The likely voter breakdown, without leaners, was 47-42 in favor of Renzi. I'd say that Renzi wins this unless it's a really bad night for the GOP, but it's closer than I like. RCP
Arizona-5: Congressman J.D. Hayworth is getting my vote for a seventh term (first time voting for him, though, as this is the first time I'm registered in his district) against Harry Mitchell. Hayworth has been in several close elections before, and emerged victorious each time. Mitchell is a former mayor of Tempe and is popular for some reason (college town, too many hippies). Mitchell, as I previously noted, was also caught stealing his opponent's yard signs in a previous campaign. I always thought Hayworth would pull this race off, but the only poll in the last couple of weeks has put Mitchell up by 2 (the first non-partisan poll to put him ahead). The Arizona Republic has turned against Hayworth, which hasn't helped him, and has been portraying Mitchell as a centrist (he isn't). RCP
Arizona-8: Open seat (Jim Kolbe is retiring). Republican Randy Graf faces Democrat Gabby Giffords. Graf defeated the candidate backed by more establishment Republicans in the primary. Non-partisan polls have given Giffords an 8-12 point lead in this race, and, although I don't find any of the polling firms here particularly reliable, Graf certainly has an uphill climb if he wants to win. It won't be the blowout some were expecting after Graf won the primary, and I think he'll reach 45%, but 50% would seem to be beyond his reach (he could technically win with less than 50%, but it's not something to count on). RCP
California-4: Congressman John Doolittle defends his seat against Charles Brown. Aside from one poll which showed a tie, every other poll in the last month has Doolittle up by at least 7 points. Looks good for Doolittle. Plus, c'mon, Charlie Brown isn't going to win an election. RCP
California-11: Congressman Richard Pombo against Jerry McNerney. I see only one non-partisan poll in this race, and it has McNerney up 2, but it's from the same poll that had the previous race tied, so I'm skeptical. RCP
Colorado-4: Incumbent Marilyn Musgrave tries to hold off a challenge from Angie Paccione. While polls in early and mid-October had Musgrave up 10, the last two polls have Musgrave up 1 and Paccione up 3. RCP
Colorado-7: Open seat (Bob Beauprez is running for governor). Republican Rick O'Donnell and Democrat Ed Perlmutter face-off. This is one of the Republicans' most vulnerable seats. Perlmutter opened a double-digit lead in September, and although there were indications of tightening in October, it's back to double-digits. Republicans should count this race as gone. RCP
Connecticut-2: Congressman Rob Simmons and challenger Rob Courtney. This is widely considered the safest (or, perhaps more accurately, least-vulnerable) of the three Connecticut seats. The latest poll does have Courtney up 1, but that's well within the margin of error. RCP
Connecticut-4: Congressman Chris Shays and Democrat Diane Farrell. Chris Shays isn't exactly known for endearing himself to conservatives, but after the Foley scandal broke, Shays responded to Ted Kennedy's moral lecturing with a reference to Chappaquiddick, which instantly increased his standing among conservatives. This race is generally considered slightly more vulnerable than CT-5, though the two are rather close in that regard. Shays has long been a favored Republican of the New York Times, but they've turned on him and endorsed his opponent; kinda shows what cozying up to the Times is worth for Republicans. Polls have been all over in this race, and I'm certainly not buying either extreme (Shays up 9 or down 7). RCP
Connecticut-5: Congressman Nancy Johnson and Chris Murphy. I'm thinking this one is actually slightly more vulnerable than the previous one. Johnson hasn't done well in the recent polls, down 3, 4, and 8. While none were done by one of my prefered polling firms, I can't readily dismiss them when they're all in that direction. RCP
Florida-13: Open seat (Katherine Harris is running for Senate). Republican Vern Buchanan and Democrat Christine Jennings compete for this seat. The only non-partisan polls have been a pair of RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics polls, which I don't particularly trust (probably better than Zogby, though), which have Jennings up by 2 and 3 points. RCP
Florida-16: Open seat (Mark Foley resigned in disgrace). Republican Joe Negron (under Foley's name) faces Democrat Tim Mahoney. Many considered this seat a lost cause for Republicans when the Foley scandal broke. I disagreed, and others are coming around to my view (I'm not saying it's a slam dunk for the Republicans, either). It was downgraded from top-3 status by both RCP and Chuck Todd to 10th and 12th, respectively. Since Foley's resignation came so close to the lection, Republicans couldn't replace him on the ballot, but, under Florida law, could designate all his votes to go to someone else. Thus, Florida Republicans started the amusing "Punch Foley for Negron" campaign, including this memorable website. The Republicans also won a court battle, allowing them to post signs in polling places stating that a vote for Foley goes to Negron. I had heard something about Republicans making inroads here with the aforementioned campaign, but don't see any recent polls on RCP; it may be something I heard about Republican internal polling. RCP
Florida-22: Congressman Clay Shaw against Ron Klein. Shaw was ahead through mid-October, but the last few polls have trended towards Klein. RCP
Idaho-1: Open seat (Butch Otter is runnign for governor). Republican Bill Sali and Democrat Larry Grant square off in this race. Two polls have Sali up, and one has Grant up. However, the one that has Grant up has an absurd 25% undecided, so I wouldn't place too much stock in it. Both RCP and Chuck Todd list this as the 50th most vulnerable seat in the House, and I'm inclined to agree that it is not too likely to switch parties. RCP
Illinois-6: Open seat (Henry Hyde is retiring). Republican Peter Roskam goes up against Democrat Tammy Duckworth. Aside from a Zogby poll showing Duckworth up 14, all the polls in October varied form Duckworth up 1 to Roskam up 4, so I'm inclined to dismiss the Zogby poll (even moreso than usual). Looks to be very close, and I'd give Roskam the slight edge. RCP
Indiana-2: Congressman Chris Chocola (has to be one fo my favorite names in Congress) goes for re-election against Joe Donnelly. The last two non-Zogby polls had Donnelly up 3. Chocola has narrowed the gap, but needs good turnout to put him over the top on election night. RCP
Indiana-8: Congressman John Hostettler against Brad Ellsworth. Hostettler has faced tough campaigns before, and even been counted as lost before, but still emerged victorious. Hostettler has never been a traditional campaigner, and refuses all PAC money. The last two polls show him down by 7 and 10 points, so, while I'm not ready to pronounce his campaign dead just yet, things do not look good. Ellsworth is a fairly conservative county sheriff in the district, which could help put him over the top. As a random aside, all of my grandparents live in this congressional district. RCP
Indiana-9: Congressman Mike Sodrel faces Baron Hill, the Congressman he ousted in 2004 after losing his challenge to him in 2002. In the 2002 campaign, Hill won by 9500 votes, and Sodrel won by 1500 in 2004. There's no reason to think this year will be any different in terms of the closeness of this election. Although this is considered the least vulnerable of these three Indiana seats, it's still ranked 19th on RCP and 16th by Chuck Todd, so, in a situation that involved Republicans retaining the House, it would still not be implausible for Republicans to lose all three seats. The latest poll puts Sodrel ahead by 2, but this is his first lead in the race. I have a gut feeling that Sodrel will pull this one out, but it will be a nail-biter. RCP
Iowa-1: Open seat (Jim Nussle is runnign for governor). Republican Mike Whalen competes against Democrat Bruce Braley. I'm inclined to dismiss the latest poll, showing Braley up 21. Still, most polls have given Braley a double-digit lead, and this is one of the more left-leaning portions of the state. Looks likely to flip parties. RCP
Kentucky-2: Congressman Ron Lewis defends his seat against Mike Weaver. This was not really expected to be a vulnerable seat, but a Democrat poll put Weaver up 46-43, so I figured I should include it. Partisan polls skew towards their client, though, and I find it unlikely that Weaver will win on election day. That said, this is one of the earlier polls to close, and if he does pull off the win, it looks to be a very bad day for the Republicans. RCP not available (as near as I can tell)
Kentucky-3: Congressman Anne Northup is running against John Yarmuth. Polling is inconsistent in this race, varying from Northup being up 6 to Yarmuth being up 8. Northup is a veteran of close races (with the exception of 2004), and has been a top target of Democrats since 1998. RCP
Kentucky-4: Congressman Geoff Davis faces Ken Lucas. Lucas is fairly conservative, and formerly held this seat from 1998-2004, when he refused to seek re-election because he had made a term-limits pledge in 1998 (which does not apply to non-contiguous terms). Not sure off the top of my head, but I'm thinking Lucas did not support Pelosi as minority leader, which raises the question of whether he'd support her should the Democrats win a narrow majority, including him, in the election for Speaker. Neither candidate has managed a lead outside the margin of error in polling. RCP
Minnesota-1: Congressman Gil Gutknecht, Jr., is up against Tim Walz. This race seems characterized by a lack of polls, as RCP only has two, both with Gutknecht up by a very narrow margin (inside the margin of error). RCP
Minnesota-6: Open seat (Mark Kennedy is running for Senate). Republican Michele Backmann faces Democratic-Farmer Labor nominee Patty Wetterling. A couple of polls had Watterling up in early October (including the always unreliable Star Tribune), but everything else has shown a Backmann lead, including a 7 point advantage in the most recent poll. This seat looks like it will be retained by the Republicans, although I wouldn't count it safe. RCP
Nevada-2: Congressman Jim Gibbons faces Jill Derby. Not high on the list of vulnerable seats, of the five non-partisan polls released in this race, Gibbons has had a lead of 8 in four, and 3 in the other (though one of the 8's was back in May, and, as such, is irrelevent). RCP
Nevada-3: Congressman John Porter and Tessa Hafen face off here. Like the neighboring NV-2, this race is not high on the list of vulnerables, and every poll has given Porter a lead of 7-10. RCP
New Hampshire-2: Congressman Charlie Bass faces Paul Hodes in a repeat of the 2004 election. Bass seems to have thought he could cruise to re-election and took it a little too easy on the campaign trail this year, and has gotten himself into trouble. The UNH tracking poll gives a large lead to Hodes, but I don't really buy that he has a lead of that size. The Research 2000 poll gave Bass a lead of 1, but that, of course, is well within the margin of error, and even without buying the UNH poll at face value, you have to figure that Bass's 1 point lead is more likely an error in his favor than his opponent's. I'm certainly not counting Bass out, but he is not where he wants to be, and he could very well face a disasterous finish against the opponent he beat by 20 points in 2004. RCP
New Jersey-7: Congressman Mike Ferguson and Linda Stender. Ferguson has led in all the polls, oddly with a smaller lead in the non-partisan than in the partisan Democrat polls. The non-partisan polls are all the RTS/CD ones that I don't trust particularly much. Anyways, Ferguson looks to keep this seat. RCP
New Mexico-1: Congressman Heather Wilson faces a stuff challenge from state Attorny General Patricia Madrid in this central New Mexico district (Albuquerque and surroundings). Wilson has faced several tough challenges before, but she tends to pull it off in the end. Madrid has been up in every poll since the beginning of October, except for one partisan Republican poll. RCP
New York-19: Congressman Sue Kelly against John Hall. This is another race that polls oddly. In partisan Democrat polls, Kelly is up, but in RTS/CD polls, Hall is up. As partisan polls tend to support their client, I'm inclined towards believing Kelly is up, and dismissing the RTS/CD polls (which, as mentioned, I do not find the most reliable). RCP
New York-20: Congressman John Sweeney versus Kirsten Gillibrand. When I say I don't particularly trust RTS/CD polls, it's races like this I have most in mind. They've done two polls here, showing Gillibrand with leads of 11 and 13, while no other poll has given Gillibrand a larger lead than 3, including the two partisan Dem polling companies working here. It's also a race that comes to mind when I talk about how screwy polling has been this year, as the RTS/CD poll giving Gillibrand a 13-point lead was conducted Oct 15-16, while a Siena College poll conducted Oct 16-17 gave Sweeney a 14-point lead. I was thinking that Sweeney was going to pull this out, but then a report was released a few days ago saying Sweeney's wife called 911 to report a domestic dispute. Both Sweeney and his wife are denying the accuracy of this report, so the race pretty much comes down to whether voters trust the Sweeneys and think it's dirty politics, or distrust the Sweeneys and think it's dirty secrets. Only one poll has come out since this news broke, a Siena College poll which has Gillibrand up 46-43; Sweeney's favorable rating fell from 49 to 35 between the two SC polls I've mentioned. Still, 46-43 does not at all give this race to Gillibrand. It's been charged that an advisor to Gillibrand, who also advises Hillary Clinton, was behind feeding the story to the press. RCP
New York-24: Open seat (Sherwood Boehlert is retiring). Republican Ray Meier and Democrat Mark Arcuri go at it. The only polls I see here are a Republican one that had Meier up 11 at the end of August, which is old and partisan, and an RTS/CD poll taken in the wake up the Foley scandal, which had Arcuri up 11, but is from a polling firm that doesn't receive my highest marks and had poor timing for an accurate picture of this race, in addition to being nearly a month old. I doubt that Arcuri has an 11 point lead, but I have a hard time rating this race, other than saying it will be tough for the GOP. RCP
New York-25: Congressman James Walsh against Dan Maffei. See the write-up for NY-19; pretty much the exact same thing here. RCP
New York-26: Congressman Tom Reynolds (chairman of the NRCC, the committee tasked with electing Republicans to the House) fights for re-election against Jack Davis, Jr. Reynolds's name popped up in the Foley scandal, which severely hurt him. However, he's recovered to take the lead in recent polls, though a 3-5 point lead isn't spectacularly safe. RCP
New York-29: Congressman Randy Kuhl, Jr., faces Eric Massa. The only polls in the last month are two RTS/CD polls which have Massa up by double digits, but the previus poll, conducted by a partisan Dem polling firm in September, had Kuhl up 5. I'd be more inclined to dismiss the older partisan poll, but RTS/CD polls in NY have skewed so heavily towards the Dems that I'm as doubtful of them. RTS/CD is the new pollster on the block, and New York looks to embarrass them out of existence, or prove them amazing geniuses (I'm leaning towards the former). RCP
North Carolina-11: Congressman Charles Taylor versus Heath Shuler. Polling has given the edge to Shuler, but there are two problems with this. First, the polls are all partisan Dem, Zogby, or RTS/CD, none of which I particularly trust to paint an accurate picture. Second, Taylor was down by 2 in polling going into the 2004 election, but he won 55-45. Not saying I think Taylor's in the lead, just saying I'm skeptical of the polls (the four over the last month have Shuler up 5, 8, 8, and 9). RCP
Ohio-01: Congressman Steve Chabot versus John Cranley, IV. The only nonpartisan poll here is an RTS/CD poll giving Cranley a 2 point lead. Still, this race finishes just outside the top 25 most vulerable seats for both RCP and Todd. RCP
Ohio-02: Congressman Jean Schmidt faces Victoria Wulsin. The latest Survey USA poll has Wulsin up 3, but the one two weeks ago had Schmidt up 8; the question is how much of that is due to real movement and how much to poll fluctuation. Democrats were disappointed by Schmidt's victory in last year's special election for this seat, and she aims to disappoint them again. RCP
Ohio-12: Congressman Pat Tiberi defends his seat against Bob Shamansky (who was elected to a single term in Congress in 1980). The single poll I've seen here gives Tiberi a 5 point lead, but it's an RTS/CD poll. At any rate, this is generally rated further down the list of vulnerable seats and figures to switch only if this is a wave election. RCP
Ohio-15: Congressman Deborah Pryce is challenged by Mary Jo Kilroy. Another race with a disappointing lack of polls, especially since RCP has it ranked 15th and Todd has it ranked 13th on their respective most vulnerable lists. An RTS/CD poll had Kilroy up 12 in early October (even if I trusted the company, I'd want something more recent), but a partisan Dem poll had Pryce up 1 in late September. As that's it for polling in this race, there's little to go on but gut feeling. RCP
Ohio-18: Open seat (Bob Ney resigned in less disgrace than Mark Foley). Republican Joy Padgett is up against Zach Space. Another seatwithout quality polling, though it does have quantity. Padgett was staying within ten points before Bob Ney entere a guilty plea to corruption charges on October 13, and the only poll since then is a Zogby one showing her down 20. Not sure about the magnitude of that poll, but this race is all but lost. RCP
Pennsylvania-04: Congressman Melissa Hart defends her seat against Jason Altmire. Every poll in the last two months has Hart up 4. This seat isn't very vulnerable except in case of a wave. RCP
Pennsylvania-06: Congressman Jim Gerlach faces Lois Murphy, in a rematch of 2004 when Gerlach won by 6,500 votes. Insert my usual complaint about quality polls. In the last month, RTS/CD, Zogby, and partisan Dem polls all gave Murphy leads of 3-6. This is the kind of race the Dems absolutely need to win if they want a wave (note that I do not say winning it is indicative of a wave, merely that not winning is indicative of no wave). RCP
Pennsylvania-07: Congressman Curt Weldon is challenged by Admiral Joe Sestak, Jr., Ret. Weldon is under FBI investigation for allegedly using his position to steer business towards his daughter's lobbying firm. He denies the charges, but images of the FBI removing files from his daughter's home and office, along with those of others related to the charges, do not exactly help his campaign. Weldon may not be dead in the water, but he's in serious trouble. RCP
Pennsylvania-08: Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick runs for re-election against Patrick Murphy. Partisan dem polls and an RTS/CD poll have Murphy up, but everything else shows Fitzpatrick. As such, I lean towards Fitzpatrick. Rather big disagreement on where to rank this race from RCP and Todd, who have it at 38th and 21st, respectively, on their lists of must vulnerable seats. RCP
Pennsylvania-10: Congressman Don Sherwood versus Chris Carney. Sherwood would be cruising to re-election if not for his personal life. A woman filed assault charges against him and sued him for $5.5 million after a five-year affair. He acknowledged the affair, denied the assault charges, and settled the lawsuit out of court. I tend to be skeptical of all seven-figure lawsuits, but this is still bad news for Sherwood. He ran with no Dem opposition in 2004, but is now likely to lose his seat -- not the most common turn of events, but scandal will do that to a man. RCP
Texas-22: Open seat (Tom Delay resigned from Congress). Republican Shelley Sekula-Gibbs is a write-in candidate against Democrat former congressman Nick Lampson. DeLay resigned and withdrew from his re-election effort after winning the primary, which did not allow the Republicans to place someone else on the ballot. While this certainly adds a large handicap to the race for the Republicans, they do have a few things working in their favor. First, this is a very Republican district. Second, there is a special election concurrent with the general election to fill Tom DeLay's remaining term, and her name is on the ballot for that. The campaign has made a big deal about needing to vote twice, and needing to write her name in (actually, it seems that it's an electronic ballot system where the use a ball to scroll through letters and insert them one by one). The elections board will accept misspellings, but has not said which ones it will accept yet, as it figures this could influence the race. Interestingly, the electronic system groups the votes by spelling, and once they say a certain spelling will be accepted, all such spellings will immediately be accepted and counted. The lawyers are getting ready for this one. This race had been ranked most vulnerable by many, but now RCP ranks it 7th and Chuck Todd ranks it 10th. RCP
Virginia-02: Congressman Thelma Drake faces Phil Kellam. Drake is up 2 in a Mason-Dixon poll, and she has had mixed results from the usual suspects. She probably pulls this one off at the end. RCP
Washington-8: Congressman Dave Reichert and Microsoft executive Darcy Burner face off. Survey USA gives Reichert a consistent, if small, lead (he also managed to reach 50% in each). The RTS/CD polls have gone between the candidates within the margin of error. This race leans towards Reichert, though a Dem wave could demoralize his supporters and cost him the seat. RCP
Wisconsin-8: Open seat (Mark Green is running for governor). Republican John Gard and Democrat Steve Kagen battle for this seat. I can't say that I place a lot of faith in the polls for this district. This district does tend somewhat Republican (supporting Bush over Kerry 55-45), and that might be enoguh to carry the day for Gard. RCP
Finally got through all those; this post is probably the most time-consuming in the history of my blog. Too bad that, on the whole, it's probably the least interesting of my election posts.
posted by DC | 6:28 PM
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