Senate: 2008 and Other Notes
To give some indication of the lack of Republican prospects for gaining Senate seats in 2008, the Republicans will be defending 21 seats, and the Democrats only 12. Of those twelve, five are from states that Bush won in both 2000 and 2004:
Max Baucus, Montana: He's been elected to the Senate five times already. He could retire, but he's young for someone who's been in the Senate so long (he turns 65 in December), so that seems unlikely. Barring the old "live boy or dead girl," this seat is his in 2008 as long as he wants it.
Tim Johnson, South Dakota: He won only by an extremely narrow margin of John Thune in 2002. Thune then went on to defeat Tom Daschle in 2004. A Republican pickup is fairly doubtful, though not completely impossible.
Mary Landrieu, Louisiana: She won in a close runoff in 2002. We actually stand a chance here, as Louisiana has been trending more Republican.
Mark Pryor, Arkansas: While you can't quite rule the Republicans out, Arkansas likes its dems more than most southern states, and there are the usual advantages of incumbency.
John Rockefeller IV, West Virginia: West Virginia loves its incumbents, and this one first won his Senate seat in 1984. Not much of a chance for Republicans unless he retires (he's older than Baucus, but still considerably younger than his fellow West Virginian senator, Robert Byrd).
So, while a seat in a purple or blue state might come into play, and retirements always play an important role, I see only one seat that strikes me as truly vulnerable, and even that one won't be easy. Plus, there are the Republican vulnerablities to consider.
Meanwhile, it looks like George Allen could possibly be the Republican nominee in 2008 after all. Not for president, mind you, but Sen. John Warner will be 81 in 2008 and might not seek re-election. Just a possibility.
It looks like the Democrats will control the Senate of the 110th Congress with a 51-49 edge. It's not impossible for Republicans to regain control of it, however. A death or resignation of a senator with a "D" by his name, who comes from a state with a Republican governor, could create a 50-50 split, with Cheney as the tie-breaker. A few states have different rules on this; I believe Connecticut changed its law in 2000 when it looked like, if Lieberman became Vice President, a Republican replacement might tip the balance to Republicans (as the results of the 2000 election gave a 50-50 Senate, only a few hundred votes in Florida kept this from coming to pass, with the exception of the law beign in place to prevent it). Deaths were once a lot more common among sitting senators, but the last ten years have seen the deaths of only three senators and one senatorial candidate, who went on to win the election (and possibly only won because of his death). The two most recent deaths were in plane crashes, so old age and health were not really factors (although they were flying for their campaigns for (re-)election at the time, so that doesn't completely apply at this time). I'm not trying to start a death watch or anything, I'm just saying is all.
Max Baucus, Montana: He's been elected to the Senate five times already. He could retire, but he's young for someone who's been in the Senate so long (he turns 65 in December), so that seems unlikely. Barring the old "live boy or dead girl," this seat is his in 2008 as long as he wants it.
Tim Johnson, South Dakota: He won only by an extremely narrow margin of John Thune in 2002. Thune then went on to defeat Tom Daschle in 2004. A Republican pickup is fairly doubtful, though not completely impossible.
Mary Landrieu, Louisiana: She won in a close runoff in 2002. We actually stand a chance here, as Louisiana has been trending more Republican.
Mark Pryor, Arkansas: While you can't quite rule the Republicans out, Arkansas likes its dems more than most southern states, and there are the usual advantages of incumbency.
John Rockefeller IV, West Virginia: West Virginia loves its incumbents, and this one first won his Senate seat in 1984. Not much of a chance for Republicans unless he retires (he's older than Baucus, but still considerably younger than his fellow West Virginian senator, Robert Byrd).
So, while a seat in a purple or blue state might come into play, and retirements always play an important role, I see only one seat that strikes me as truly vulnerable, and even that one won't be easy. Plus, there are the Republican vulnerablities to consider.
Meanwhile, it looks like George Allen could possibly be the Republican nominee in 2008 after all. Not for president, mind you, but Sen. John Warner will be 81 in 2008 and might not seek re-election. Just a possibility.
It looks like the Democrats will control the Senate of the 110th Congress with a 51-49 edge. It's not impossible for Republicans to regain control of it, however. A death or resignation of a senator with a "D" by his name, who comes from a state with a Republican governor, could create a 50-50 split, with Cheney as the tie-breaker. A few states have different rules on this; I believe Connecticut changed its law in 2000 when it looked like, if Lieberman became Vice President, a Republican replacement might tip the balance to Republicans (as the results of the 2000 election gave a 50-50 Senate, only a few hundred votes in Florida kept this from coming to pass, with the exception of the law beign in place to prevent it). Deaths were once a lot more common among sitting senators, but the last ten years have seen the deaths of only three senators and one senatorial candidate, who went on to win the election (and possibly only won because of his death). The two most recent deaths were in plane crashes, so old age and health were not really factors (although they were flying for their campaigns for (re-)election at the time, so that doesn't completely apply at this time). I'm not trying to start a death watch or anything, I'm just saying is all.
posted by DC | 10:57 PM
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