2006 Gubernatorial Election Rundown

Thirty-six governorships are up for election this year. The "midterm" elections (that is, the congressional elections between presidential elections) are popular for state elections on the theory that, without a presidential race to pay attention to, voters will pay more attention to the state races. A few oddball states hold their state elections in odd-numbered years, which would seem the way to go to get even more attention on the state races, if you really want that sort of thing (off the top of my head, Virginia and New Jersey hold theirs the year after a presidential election, and Louisiana and Mississippi hold theirs the year before a presidential election). The Republicans currently hold a 28-22 advantage, and hold 22 of the 26 up for election this year. Their chances of holding that majority look slimmer than their chances of holding the House, as several open seats are as good as lost (there are ten open seats this year, of which nine are currently held by Republicans, making it all the more difficult to maintain their lead).

First, the incumbents who seem likely to hold their position:

Republicans: (11)
Alabama -- Bob Riley
California -- Arnold Schwarzenegger
Connecticut -- Jodi Rell
Georgia -- Sonny Perdue
Hawaii -- Linda Lingle
Nebraska -- Dave Heineman
Rhode Island -- Donald Carcieri
South Carolina -- Mark Sanford
South Dakota -- Mike Rounds
Texas -- Rick Perry
Vermont -- Jim Douglas

Democrats: (9)
Arizona -- Janet Napolitano
Kansas -- Kathleen Sebelius
Maine -- John Baldacci
New Hampshire -- John Lynch
New Mexico -- Bill Richardson
Oklahoma -- Brad Henry
Pennsylvania -- Ed Rendell
Tennessee -- Phil Bredesen
Wyoming -- Dave Freudenthal

Incumbents facing stiffer opposition (though stiffer may not mean stiff):

Republicans:
Maryland -- Bob Ehrlich. First elected in 2002, with Michael Steele (who is now running for U.S. Senate) as his running mate, Ehrlich is in a tough fight with former Baltimore mayor Martin O'Malley. The last two nonpartisan polls here gave O'Malley a one-point edge. According to exit polls, Ehrlich did well (for a Republican) among blacks in 2002 with Steele on the ticket, it will be interesting to see how well he does this time around. The conventional wisdom says that Steele energizes a somewhat larger than average black turnout behind him, and the question for that would be whether they split their vote, or also vote for the Republican Ehrlich. This is one of the biggest races to watch come election night. I'm thinking Ehrlich pulls it off at the moment, but I might revise that.

Minnesota -- Tim Pawlenty. He managed to win with only 44% of the vote in 2002, thanks to an Independence Party candidate who garnered 16%. While there are an Independence Party candidate and a Green Party candidate on the ballot this year, along with a few other minor candidates, they figure to pull closer to 10% combined this year, so Pawlenty will need to up his share of the vote if he wants another term. If he manages to win re-election, he's been mentioned as a possible darkhorse candidate for the 2008 GOP presidential nomination, or possibly the nominee for vice president (though there's a whole thing that I'll go into about governors being potential VP nominees -- or, actually, I've probably gone through it before on here, just not anytime remotely recently). Three of the most recent polls give Mike Hatch, the Democratic Farmer Labor nominee (that's the name of the Democrats in Minnesota), a one point lead. This is another race I intend to watch very closely on election night. It could have had an interesting senate race, as well, but Mark Kennedy's (the Republican) campaign never got off to the start it needed. Still, a couple of U.S. House races in the state are somewhat competitive and these races could affect each other. I'm leaning towards Pawlenty pulling this one off, but, once again, reserve the right to change my mind.

Democrats:
Oregon -- Ted Kulongoski. Despite the unpopularity of Kulongoski, Republican challenger Ron Saxton is still down by seven in the latest polls. Perhaps in a less blue state, or a better national climate for Republicans. It looks like Kulongoski will keep his job.

Wisconsin -- James Doyle. A very purple state looks to have a very close governor's race. Doyle leads Republican Mark Green in most recent polls, but the lead tends to be in the 2 to 6 point range (for those of you who use Real Clear Politics, they really shouldn't have either the Zogby or the University of Wisconsin polls in their average; as for the WPR one, it stands as an outlier and I'd be interested in seeing its internals to find out why). This is probably the Republicans' best chance to knock off an incumbent Democrat governor. At the moment, I'm thinking Doyle's survival is the most likely outcome, but I will review that further before the election.

Illinois -- Rod Blagojevich. The incumbent went from potential presidential contender to the most unpopular governor the Democrats have (well, potentially Blanco). Judy Baar Topinkais his challenger, but it looks like Illinois is too blue for the Republicans this year. After looking vulnerable in the spring, Blagojevich is looking much safer, with only one poll placing his lead at less than 7 since mid-September (although that poll, giving him a lead of 4, was one of the most recent). Well, I suppose an unpopular Democrat staying in office isn't an entirely bad thing for Republicans.

Michigan -- Jennifer Granholm. Finally, a democrat whose unpopularity isn't totally their own fault. Michigan's bad economy is hurting Granholm, so it's really not her, only the policies that she supports (though, once again in fairness, Michigan wasn't looking too good when she took over). Republican Dick DeVos had the lead or was competitive in polling from mid-March through the end of August, but Granholm started to pull away in September, and October polls have generally given her a lead in the 5-10 point range. This is another state with a competitive Senate race (at least somewhat), and the fortunes of the candidates are somewhat joined. DeVos seems more likely to win than Bouchard. I'm thinking Democrat retention here, but I'll see if I can be convinced otherwise in the next few days.

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Well, I don't have time to do the other races justice right now, but I wanted to post the incumbent races rather than just save this post for another day. The open races, in short:

Republican-held seats that look lost:
New York
Massachusetts
Ohio
Colorado
Arkansas

Republican-held seats that look better (though not in the clear):
Florida
Nevada
Alaska
Idaho (looks to be in the most trouble right now, very tight)

Democrat-held seat that's close:
Iowa

I'll either update these races on this post, or do a new one for open seats.

I was going to post my poll closing time/race watch list, but I typed it up at work and the floppy drive there seems to be busted. Hopefully, I remember to take my flash drive to retrieve it today.

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Update: rundown of the open seats:

Florida: Republican Charlie Crist leads Democrat Jim Davis. The last poll showing a Davis lead was in May. Still, most polls in the past month have put Crist's lead at less than ten points, which is enough for me to declare the race competitive. I'm going with Crist winning this won, but how well he does could have a large impact on a couple of House races, so it's something I'll be watching.

Nevada: Republican Jim Gibbons leads Democrat Dina Titus. Only one poll has shown Titus with a lead, and it was one of those screwy Zogby polls, so I don't place much stock in it. The three most recent non-Zogby polls have given Gibbons leads of two, four, and six. The dems were making a huge play here in Nevada, going after the Republican-held governorship, senate seat, and two house seats (the third house seat is held by a democrat), and it looks like they'll fall short on all four.

Alaska: Republican Sarah Palin is up against Democrat former governor (and 2004 Senate election loser) Tony Knowles. Republican Governor Frank Murkowski is extermely unpopular right now, and came in third place among the three major candidates in the Republican primary, garnering less than 20% of the vote (Palin received just over 50%). Murkowski has done many things to alienate voters, including appointing his daughter to the U.S. Senate seat he vacated to take the governor's position, though she managed to overcome charges of nepotism to beat Knowles in 2004. His unpopularity shouldn't really affect Palin. Knowles, while he won two gubernatorial elections, never received 50% of the vote, so he's not as strong a candidate as might be expected. The last poll to have Knowles up was in June, though one poll in early October had a tie, and one in late October gave Palin only a one point lead. Still, while it looks to be close, Palin should win this one.

Idaho: Republican Butch Otter faces Democrat Jerry Brady. Polling data on this race is sparse, with only three polls released in the last month. Mason-Dixon (the one non-partisan polling company I recognize in this race) gives Otter a one point lead. A democrat polling firm gave Brady a two point lead, but party polls tend to boost their own candidates by a few points. A poll released by Greg Smith and Associates, which seems to be an Idahoan polling firm, gives Brady a five point lead but shows a remarkable 20% undecided (it also gives the dem candidate in Idaho Congressional District 1 a four point elad, with 25% undecided); anybody familiar with political polling will tell you that this close to an election, havnig that many undecideds is fishy. The Mason-Dixon poll had 12% undecided, which is still pretty high. I'll look more into this race, but it certainly looks like it could go either way.

Iowa: Republican Congressman Jim Nussle and Democrat Secretary of State Chet Culver are tussling in the lone open seat currently held by a democrat. Culver has lead in most recent polling, but hasn't put this away just yet. A couple of competitve house races in the state (including Nussle's old seat) keep this interesting as well. I'd say it's leaning democrat, but this is another race that I'll look into more over the next couple of days.

New York: Lost cause for Republicans. Democrat Attorney General Eliot Spitzer has had a lead of at least 45 points in each of the last three polls over Republican John Faso. It never looked good for the Republicans, and it's completely gone now.

Massachusetts: Incumbent Mitt Romney would have made it a contest, at least, but Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey has been polling down more than twenty points to Democrat Deval Patrick. Democrat takeover.

Ohio: As much as I like Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, Democrat Congressman Ted Strickland has held a pretty consistent twenty point lead. Ohio is a tough climate for Republicans, but Blackwell is not well connected with the state Republican establishment, so it had seemed like he would have a chance. The senate race here also looks a lot worse than many thought it would, and the two combined could cause trouble for House races here.

Colorado: Democrat Bill Ritter, Jr., holds a lead ranging from 12 to 22 points in the latest polls over Congressman Bob Beauprez. Zogby had Beauprez up by one, but, well, it's Zogby.

Arkansas: Republican former congressman Asa Hutchinson trails Democrat state Attorney General Mike Beebe by 12 to 20 points in three of the last four polls, but the fourth has Hutchinson up 3. Odd, but it looks like the Arkansas governor's mansion will hold another Democrat.