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Location: Metro Phoenix, Arizona, United States

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Wednesday, April 08, 2009

2009 Baseball Season Predictions

Once again, I'm late getting to my predictions, and the season is already underway.

My predicted standings for the year:

NL East
Mets
Phillies
Braves
Marlins
Nationals

NL Central
Cubs
Brewers
Cardinals
Reds
Astros
Pirates

NL West
Dodgers
Giants
Diamondbacks
Rockies
Padres

AL East
Yankees
Rays
Red Sox
Blue Jays
Orioles

AL Central
Indians
Twins
Tigers
Royals
White Sox

AL West
Angels
Athletics
Mariners
Rangers

Out of all those teams, the Athletics strike me as the team with the greatest variance in probable outcome; I could easily see them finishing first or last or anywhere in between. They might have at least a 20% shot at each position.

My annual prediction of how many players will pass Babe Ruth on the all-time strikeout list is six: Jason Giambi, Ivan Rodriguez, Pat Burrell, Derrek Lee, Troy Glaus, and Adam Dunn. Troy Glaus is the only one of those I have much hesitation about, due to his frequent health issues, but he's only 61 short of Ruth at the moment. The Babe enters the season as number 88 on the alltime striekout list. Falling out of the top 100 is starting to come into view.

Also on the strikeout front, I see Ryan Howard, Mark Reynolds, and Jack Cust all making a run at 200 again. I think Adam Dunn might be done with his days of doing so, but he should have over 160. If he can stay healthy and avoid a big downturn in production, he should be reaching the 2000 mark for his career in 2013. Jim Thome should be passing Sammy Sosa for the second spot alltime, and Carlos Delgado should enter the top ten. Manny Ramirez and Mike Cameron will enter the top 15, barring injury, with Alex Rodriguez to enter if one of them comes up short.

As for overrated players enterring the year, Alex Rodriguez was around the top of my list until his hip injury hit. Some people talk about him being the best player in baseball, but he's not even the best third baseman in his city. I was thinking David Wright was probably even a better fantasy option than Rodriguez. Other overrated players include Ryan Howard (declined each of the last two seasons; people remember his 2006 MVP campaign, though he's not going to be replicating that, ever), Manny Ramirez (remember he only hit 20 homers in 133 games in 2007, and he's not getting any younger), and David Ortiz (many are expecting a full bounce-back, but he's 33 and not the kind of player who ages well).

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1 Comments:

Blogger Unknown said...

You were pretty kind to the Diamondbacks this year, dont you usually predict them to finish last? I would say they have a better chance at 4th or 5th this year than 1st, 2nd, or 3rd. Im going to peg them as a 90-loss team.

Sun Apr 19, 02:42:00 PM MST  

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