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Location: Metro Phoenix, Arizona, United States

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Wednesday, October 22, 2008

World Series

How's this for an off-the-wall series prediction: Brad Lidge has gone all season and the first two rounds of the playoffs without a blown save; he keeps that intact until game 7, when he blows a lead and the series in the bottom of the ninth.

As far as more straightforward predictions go, Rays in 6 or 7.

Update: I checked out the write-up of the Diamond Mind simulation on ESPN, and noticed something odd. While the Rays had a fairly predictable distribution of results (a six-game win most likely, followed by seven and five, with four bringing up the rear), the Phillies' was ... odd. It had a sweep as their most likely method of series victory, followed by five games, then six, and then a big dropoff to seven. Rounding to the nearest whole percent, those odds were 11, 9, 7, and 2 percent, respectively. If you reverse that, it would make sense, with a seven-game victry being the most probable, and a sweep being quite unlikely. It makes me wonder if they messed up the graphic.

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