2006 House Election Rundown

I spent more time on the Senate write-up than I wanted to, and I want to get this finished soon, so this won't be quite as in-depth as I wanted.

Here's a list of the ten most vulnerable Republican seats, courtesy of Rich Lowry on The Corner:

AZ-8: Randy Graf v. Gabrielle Giffords
CO-7: Rick O'Donnell v. Ed Perlmutter
FL-16: Joe Negron v. Tim Mahoney: This is Mark Foley's old seat.
IN-2: Chris Chocola v. Joe Donnelly:
IN-8: John Hostettler v. Brad Ellsworth
OH-18: Joy Padgett v. Zack Space
PA-10: Don Sherwood v. Chris Carney
PA-7: Curt Weldon v. Joe Sestak
TX- 22: Shelley Sekula-Gibbs v. Nick Lampson: This is Tom Delay's old seat.
VA-2: Thelma Drake v. Phil Kellam

Many people were saying the Republicans had no shot at holding Delay's and Foley's seats. I, however, disagreed, and the latest polling has backed me up. I'm not saying they're a shoo-in to win either, just that they're quite competitive. In Delay's district, he won the primary, but then withdrew from the race too late to put another Republican on the ballot, so Sekula-Gibbs is a write-in candidate. This would normally be bad (and isn't exactly good), but since Delay also resigned Congress, there's also an election to finish out his term in which Sekula-Gibbs is a candidate, so the problem of remembering her name doesn't really come into play. As for Foley's seat, he resigned too late to even take his name off the ballot, but, by Florida election law, the Republicans were able to appoint Negron to receive all votes for Foley. There's been a blitz of advertising saying that a vote for Foley is a vote for Negron, and Republicans won a court battle letting them say as much in a polling place, via flyer, poster, or whatever (as part of meeting the court's ruling, it must list all the candidates for the seat, though, so that it does not appear as a campaig advertisement to Negron).

A second tier of vulnerable seats, also courtesy of Mr. Lowry:

*CA-11: Richard Pombo v. Jerry McNerney
FL-13 : Vern Buchanan v. Christine Jennings
*FL-22: Clay Shaw v. Ron Klein
IA-1: Mike Whalen v. Bruce Braley
*IN-9: Mike Sodrel v. Baron Hill
*KY-4: Geoff Davis v. Ken Lucas
MN-6: Michele Bachmann v. Patty Wetterling
NC-11: Charles Taylor v. Heath Shuler
NM-1: Heather Wilson v. Patricia Madrid
NY-24: Ray Meier v. Mike Arcuri
*OH-1: Steve Chabot v. John Cranley
OH-15: Deborah Pryce v. Mary Jo Kilroy
*PA-6: Jim Gerlach v. Lois Murphy
PA-8: Mike Fitzpatrick v. Patrick Murphy
*WA-8: Dave Reichert v. Darcy Burner
*WI-8: Gard v. Kagen

Without going into too much detail on each of the races right now, I'll point instead to what you should watch for on election night to see if the House changes hands, and, if so, by how much. It's important both how many of these seats the Democrats pick up, and how early the projections come (losing a close race bodes better for Republicans elsewhere than losing by a substantial margin that can be called soon after polls close). Please note that I'm not listing all poll closing times here (just those with competitive races). Also, a friendly reminder, CST is one hour behind EST, MST ("Arizona time") is two hours behind EST and one behind CST.

Polls close in Indiana and Kentucky at 6pm EST/CST (depending on the part of the state they're in). As you can see above, Indiana has three competitive seats, and Kentucky has a second competitive seat in addition to the one listed above (KY-3, Northup).

At 7pm EST (when the last bits of Indiana and Kentucky are closing), Virginia and the portion of Florida on EST are closing. Those states contain another four seats (though one or two of the Florida seats might be partially or wholly on CST, I'm not sure off the top of my head). Georgia also closes at this time, and the Republicans are optimistic about picking up a seat or two there.

Ohio and North Carolina (another four seats) close at 7:30 EST.

At 8pm EST / 7pm CST polls close in Connecticut (which doesn't have any races listed above, but has several just shy of beign listed), Pennsylvania, Texas (except the small part on MST), the rest of Florida, and a bunch of states that didn't make the list.

At 9pm EST / 8pm CST / 7pm MST Arizona closes, so make sure to vote, you Arizonans! States also closing include New York (which has a few more seats that missed the cut above), Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado.

At this point, if control of the House is still up in the air, it won't be more than a few-seat majority for either party. A couple of democrats may not vote for Pelosi for Speaker, which could make things interesting.

In addition to AZ-8, there's some competitiveness in AZ-5 and AZ-1. JD Hayworth is the incumbent in the first, facing Harry Mitchell. I'd say Hayworth is going to win. The only poll showing Mitchell in the lead was done by a Democrat polling firm, and showed him up by 3 immediately before an independent poll showed Hayworth up by 12 (and a Republican firm showed him up 14). One last note on Mitchell: in a previous campaign (2002, maybe) as he sought re-election to the state senate (from the district including ASU), he was caught stealing his opponents yard signs; that's pretty low even for a democrat. Rick Renzi is the incumbent in the second, and I think he'll win, but polling data there is more sparce.

More updates to come; I intend to do a post on governors, go more in-depth with the House, give my final Senate and House projections, and create a complete list of closing times with competitive elections to make easy election night following.

2006 Senate Election Rundown

I figured I should get this all posted and out there. I managed to predict each of the Senate races correctly in 2004, and was one off on the number of House seats Republicans would gain (I did miss several states at the presidential level, but, all-in-all, not too shabby). A repeat performance would be nice, but I don't think I'll quite manage that. I intend to update my analysis on either Sunday or Monday, to tie up a few loose ends and make final predictions.

First up, the Senate. While the chance of a Dem takeover is higher than zero, it's not good (for them, that is; I, personally, enjoy the likelihood that they won't take it over). The Republicans currently have 55 seats, and there's one independent who, for all practicaly purposes, is a Dem. There are 33 seats up for election this year, with 40 Republican and 27 Democrat seats not up for re-election. The Republicans made big gains with this class of seats in 1994, but the Democrats retook many of them in 2000.

The seats where incumbents should cruise to re-election for each party:

Republicans: 7 seats
Indiana -- Richard Lugar
Maine -- Olympia Snowe
Mississippi -- Trent Lott
Nevada -- John Ensign (Jack Carter, son of Jimmy, is his opponent)
Texas -- Kay Bailey Hutchison
Utah -- Orrin Hatch
Wyoming -- Craig Thomas

Democrats: 10 seats
California -- Dianne Feinstein
Delaware -- Tom Carper
Florida -- Bill Nelson
Hawaii -- Daniel Akaka
Massachusetts -- Ted Kennedy
New Mexico -- Jeff Bingaman, Jr.
New York -- Hillary Clinton
North Dakota -- Kent Conrad
West Virginia -- Robert Byrd (former Klansman, first elected in 1958)
Wisconsin -- Herb Kohl

That Florida seat being safe for the Dems is a huge disappointment, as it should have been at least competitive. Katherine Harris won't lose by as much as some of the earlier polls showed her losing by, but she's still going to lose.

The seats in play from each party (I use "in play" somewhat loosely):

Republican seats:

Arizona -- Jon Kyl is up for re-election. Jim Pederson, former state chair for the Democrats, is his opponent. Jon Kyl was tagged by the Democrats as their #1 target in 2000, and then couldn't field a candidate. Pederson got the job this time around partially because nobody else really wanted it, and partially because he's a self-funder (owning a fortune of around $100 million). This is probably the safest Republican seat in this group, and I predict the Republicans hold it, probably with a margin of around 10%.

Missouri -- Jim Talent is up for re-election. Talent narrowly won election in 2002 to complete the term that deceased former governor Mel Carnahan had won in 2000, and which his wife had been appointed to (and was his opponent for election). State Auditor Claire McCaskill is his opponent. This race has stayed close all year, but Talent seems to hold a slight edge. I'll go ahead and predict this one for Talent.

Montana -- Conrad Burns is up for re-election. Jon Tester is his opponent. Burns is not overly popular, and nearly every poll has shown him down. Tester is supported by DailyKos, but plays down that angle while campaigning. Burns has closed the gap to the margin of error range, and has a large lead in funding going into this final stretch, but we'll see if it's too little, too late.

Ohio -- Mike DeWine is running for re-election. Congressman Sherrod Brown is his opponent. DeWine started out ahead in this race, and then dropped behind, some polls even having him down by 20 (though that's probably more due to some of the screwy polls this year than a statement of where he's at). He faces an uphill battle for re-election. Not calling this one yet, either.

Pennsylvania -- Rick Santorum is running for re-election. State Treasurer, and son of the popular former governor, Bob Casey, Jr., is his opponent. Santorum is one of my favorite senators, is immensely important to the conservative cause in the Senate, and is absolutely hated by the Democrats. Casey is essentially a non-entity riding his father's name. Casey's been doing everythnig he can to avoid taking a position on the issues, and has even been avoiding public appearances (including at several debates, where Santorum and (sometimes) the Green candidate (who is now off the ballot) included an empty chair for Casey). His campaign hasn't even issued a press release since August. A combination of the Democrats' hatred for Santorum, conservative anger over his support for fellow senator Arlen Specter against a conservative primary challenger, and the media-enhanced view that Casey is a "moderate" are working against Santorum. He's closed the gap from his massive deficit in spring and early summer, but still has a way to go. While undecideds tend to break against the incumbent, I have a feeling that they'll break for Santorum in this race.

Rhode Island -- Lincoln Chafee is running for re-election. Sheldon Whitehouse II is his opponent. Chafee, with a lot fo help from the National Republican Senatorial Committee, managed to fend off a conservative primary challenger. Now, in the general, he's not sitting too pretty. Frankly, while I don't really want Whitehouse as a senator, I hope Chafee loses. Despite all the help he's received from Republicans, he didn't even vote for George W. Bush in 2004, and has refused to rule out switching parties. If it's a 50-50 split, I expect him to bolt the party, and if the Republicans have control, they have to give him a committee seat, on which he's about as likely to vote democrat as Republican, effectively nullifying the Republican advantage in committee (and if it ends up being a single-seat advantage, giving the advantage to the democrats). Despite all the hype about how he could hold the seat for the Republicans, he's been down in every post-primary poll I can think of. I'll predict this one for Whitehouse.

Tennessee -- Bill Frist is retiring. Bob Corker, Jr., is the Republican candidate, and Harold Ford, Jr., is the Democrat. There was an early Republican advantage in this race, which swung the other way in late summer, and has come bakc towards the Republicans this month. Ford's tried to show how pious he is by filming a campaign commercial in a church (can you imagine the outrage if a Republican had done that?), but it turns out that he went to a Playboy Superbowl party. Seems more than a little hypocritical. He also initially denied attending the party by saying that he's never been to a Playboy mansion party (the party was not at the Playboy mansion) -- very weasally, also not exactly bolstering his Christian crediblity. He then showed up at a Corker press conference, challenging him to a debate (they had recently had one). Not exactly a classy act. He does have the media firmly on his side, though (well, not exactly for the press conference crashing, which, frankly, is hard to spin in a positive manner). I'm predicting a Corker victory here.

Virginia -- George Allen is up for re-election. Jim Webb, Jr., is his opponent. Webb actually endorsed Allen in 2000, and only recently registered as a Democrat. The Washington Post has been firmly in the Webb camp, with their own ombudsman calling their "maccaca" coverage piling-on. Allen started the year as a major contender for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008, but that's pretty much gone now. It's been an exceedingly weird campaign that's done it's best to avoid anything remotely resembling an issue. While nothing but a couple of Zogby Interactive polls had Webb up before late October, a few recent polls have shown him with the lead. I'm still going with Allen on this one, though I reserve the right to change that in my final predictions.

Democrat seats: (5 figure to be rather safe)

Connecticut -- Joe Lieberman is up for re-election. I placed this here not because the Republican (Alan Schlesinger) has any chance of winning it, but because Lieberman lost the primary to Ned Lamont, who is the Democrat candidate in this race, and Lieberman is running as an indepent (under the "Connecticut for Lieberman party" banner, actually). Lieberman should win this one easily, and intends to keep caucusing with the Dems once re-elected. This is a safe seat for the Dems that I merely wanted to talk about a bit more.

Maryland -- Paul Sarbanes is retiring. Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele is the Republican candidate and Congressman Ben Cardin is the Democrat candidate. Maryland is, of course, a blue state, and that makes it difficult for a Republican. Steele has kept it close, however, and has even led in a few polls. After Cardin was bested in a debate with Steele, he skipped a debate before the state branch of the NAACP, which is normally a big supporter of democrats, but Steele, who is black, figures to pry away some votes. I dislike racial politics, but I admit that they're a fact. Not going to call this one yet, but it is leanign towards the Dems.

Michigan -- Freshman Senator Debbie Stabenow is running for re-election. Sheriff Mike Bouchard is her opponent. This was another prime Republican target, and the climate in Michigan is actually favorable to the Republicans (though, of course, it would be even more favorable if the national climate was as well). Of course, it's still going to be tough, at best. Respected political analyst Charlie Cook picked this race as his darkhorse upset, which isn't the same as him picking Bouchard to win, but it's something. It's leaning the wrong way right now, but I'll wait to call it.

Minnesota -- Mark Dayton is retiring. The Republicans had high hopes for this seat, and got the candidate they wanted in Congressman Mark Kennedy, but DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar managed to snag a large early lead and hasn't looked back. I predict a retention for the Dems.

Nebraska -- Ben Nelson is up for re-election. Pete Ricketts is his opponent. As red as Nebraska is, it's hard to call Nelson safe, but he's close to it. Following retirements in 2004 by Zell Miller and John Breaux, Nelson is, by far, the Democrat most likely to work with President Bush and the Republicans. That's why he should win re-election, and I probably could (should) have marked this a safe seat.

New Jersey -- Bob Menendez is up for election, having been appointed to the seat at the beginning of the year after John Corzine resigned the seat to become governor. Tom Kean, Jr., son of the popular former governor, is his opponent. Menendez has been linked to corruption charges, and Kean has been ahead in a few polls, but New Jersey is a state where the Republicans have repeatedly seen a shot due to corruption charges, among other things, but haven't managed to eek out a win (senate races in 2000 and 2002, and gubernatorial races in 2001 and 2005). While I'm not predicting it for Menendez yet, this would be a tough pickup for the Republicans.

Vermont -- "Independent" Jim Jeffords is retiring. He should be replaced rather easily by "independent" Congressman Bernie Sanders.

Washington -- Maria Cantwell is up for re-election. Mike McGavick is her opponent. In another year, with a better national environment, Republicans could win this. They might have even been able to win it if Dino Rossi, their 2004 gubernatorial nominee, had run (he was, essentially, cheated out of a victory in 2004 by Democrat shenanigans, and plans for a rematch in 2008). Cantwell was one of the Republicans top targets, but it seems to be too much to hope for this year. Prediction: Cantwell by a comfrortable margin.


I know there were several races that I haven't predicted yet, and I know that they all currently favor the Democrat. So, yeah, I could be open to charges of bias. I do, however, figure to call most of these for the Democrats, but I have a feeling that the Republicans will pull out at least one victory in those races, I'm just not sure where yet. I know, it's not the most scientific way to predict races, but it's what I'm going with.

World Series

After five bad predictions, I get one right. Of course, the lone correct prediction went seven games, while my other picks won a combined two games.

Anyways, World Series prediction: Cardinals over Tigers. Yeah, I know, not exactly a conventional pick. I also believe that the star of the World Series will not be one of the big names, but some lesser figure.

I really don't understand all this talk about how unbeatable the Tigers are. People seem to have forgotten how they were talking about how beatable the Tigers were just a few weeks ago. For starters, they got swept by the Royals, of all teams, to end the regular season (and won only 19 of their last 50 games). Their hitters were 28th in the majors at drawing walks, and their OBP was 24th. Yes, they have some great pitchers, but their pitching has also proven itself quite capable of meltdowns (such as allowing 28 runs in that sweep by the Royals). Don't get me wrong, I'm in no way claiming that the Cardinals are the favorites in the series, and I readily acknowledge that by good reason the Tigers are, but the rhetoric is getting entirely too overheated. So, remember, you read it here first: a non-Cardinals fan picking them over the Tigers. Although, if the Tigers win, you can disregard remembering that.

More postseason predictions and commentary

Proving that I don't know when to quit, here's my latest playoff prediction:

A's over Cardinals in the World Series.

On the bright side, my random predictions were pretty good:
1) Alex Rodriguez was no good, most notably striking out on three pitches with the bases loaded and two out, in a moment that ended up having some affect on the Yankees' postseason failure (which is not to say that there weren't plenty of other problems; however, a hit right there could have changed the whole series). In his postseason career, he is 0-16 with runners in scoring position and two outs, which is the record for most at-bats without a hit in such situations. He did have a single in the first game, but I think his error in the fourth game cancels that out (on the tele, there was some debate over whether Rodriguez or Sheffield deserved the error; one of the announcers carried a rather strong opinion that it should go against Sheffield, and, while I agree that a better first baseman almost certainly would have made that play, I contend that Rodriguez, having not cleanly fielded the ball, and having made a bad throw, earned the error).
2) Trevor Hoffman did not blow a save, but I was expecting a few more oppurtunities when I made that prediction (being that I was predicting the Padres to reach the World Series).
3) Boof Bnoser had a good outing, but I wouldn't really qualify it as "excellent" -- still, it was better than some of his detractors predicted.
4) Neither Sheffield nor Giambi were impressive, and Melky Cabrera did end up with some playing time, but failed to produce (though, with only having three at-bats, it was a much smaller sample size for him).
5) Piazza was 1-10, with no runs or RBI's, so perhaps their run had something to do with him, but this was a case of a good prediction of his performance, a bad prediction of the Padres' run, and wording that would seem to link the two.

Some interesting debate over the Yankees' future, mostly abuot whether Torre and Rodriguez will be back next year. Still deciding what I think on the matter, but I say what they need most is more pitching -- at least one more good starter, and one more quality arm in the bullpen. That's assuming they re-sign Mussina, who was their second-best starter this year. No more of these Pavano signings, they need a proven veteran who is not past his prime and does not have as his "proof" one fluke season. That neatly sums up the problems with too many of these big free agent pitcher signings.

Quick Thoughts on the Baseball Playoffs

First of all, perhaps I should have refrained from posting predictions. The four teams I picked to win the first-round series are now 1-7 in the playoffs. The Yankees aren't really in too much trouble, and should pull out their series, but the other teams are looking kinda bad. True, both of the Twins' losses, along with one of the Dodgers' (and that of the Yankees) could have gone the other way pretty easily, but that doesn't do them much good right now.I'm going to make another prediction while I'm in the hole: at least one of the teams down 0-2 is going to pull off a series win.

As for the baserunning snafu of the Dodgers in the first game of their series, wow. Anyone who hasn't seen it yet, really needs to go to mlb.com or espn.com and look for it (too lazy to track down a link to post). Quite simply amazing.

As for Torii Hunter's misplay, he should have been creditted with an error. Yeah, yeah, he's an amazing center fielder and all that, but that time, he lost his gamble, he's a grown-up, I think he can handle the consequences. There is absolutely no way that hit shuold be ruled a homerun. A hit, yes; a homerun, no. So, half the postseason inside-the-park homeruns in the division play era should actually be ruled errors by Hunter (the other was also against the A's back in 2002 or 2003 or some such, hit by Ray Durham). Basically this goes back to my previous post on how they don't call errors anymore.

Baseball playoff predictions

The regular season came to an exciting conclusion (well, not as exciting as it could have been, but not bad), and the playoffs are upon us (or will be in about five hours). I figure I should get my playoff predictions in before the games start, so that I can't be accused of favoring a team after it gets off to a good start or whatever.

Anyways, I have:

Yankees over Tigers
Twins over A's

Padres over Cardinals
Dodgers over Mets

and a World Series of Yankees over Padres

Here, for comparison, are the ESPN experts' picks.

In the spirit of my regular season predictions, here are a few for the playoffs:
1) Alex Rodriguez chokes.
2) Trevor Hoffman blows at least one save.
3) Boof Bonser has at least one excellent outing in the first two rounds.
4) Sheffield or Giambi will play poorly enough that Melky Cabrera should be used in their place.
5) The Padres' run will have nothing to do with Mike Piazza, who will be unimpressive in the playoffs.

I intend to do an awards prediction post later, along with a recap of my pre-season predictions. Also, all those other postings I've been meanign to get to.