2006 Senate Election Rundown
I figured I should get this all posted and out there. I managed to predict each of the Senate races correctly in 2004, and was one off on the number of House seats Republicans would gain (I did miss several states at the presidential level, but, all-in-all, not too shabby). A repeat performance would be nice, but I don't think I'll quite manage that. I intend to update my analysis on either Sunday or Monday, to tie up a few loose ends and make final predictions.
First up, the Senate. While the chance of a Dem takeover is higher than zero, it's not good (for them, that is; I, personally, enjoy the likelihood that they won't take it over). The Republicans currently have 55 seats, and there's one independent who, for all practicaly purposes, is a Dem. There are 33 seats up for election this year, with 40 Republican and 27 Democrat seats not up for re-election. The Republicans made big gains with this class of seats in 1994, but the Democrats retook many of them in 2000.
The seats where incumbents should cruise to re-election for each party:
Republicans: 7 seats
Indiana -- Richard Lugar
Maine -- Olympia Snowe
Mississippi -- Trent Lott
Nevada -- John Ensign (Jack Carter, son of Jimmy, is his opponent)
Texas -- Kay Bailey Hutchison
Utah -- Orrin Hatch
Wyoming -- Craig Thomas
Democrats: 10 seats
California -- Dianne Feinstein
Delaware -- Tom Carper
Florida -- Bill Nelson
Hawaii -- Daniel Akaka
Massachusetts -- Ted Kennedy
New Mexico -- Jeff Bingaman, Jr.
New York -- Hillary Clinton
North Dakota -- Kent Conrad
West Virginia -- Robert Byrd (former Klansman, first elected in 1958)
Wisconsin -- Herb Kohl
That Florida seat being safe for the Dems is a huge disappointment, as it should have been at least competitive. Katherine Harris won't lose by as much as some of the earlier polls showed her losing by, but she's still going to lose.
The seats in play from each party (I use "in play" somewhat loosely):
Republican seats:
Arizona -- Jon Kyl is up for re-election. Jim Pederson, former state chair for the Democrats, is his opponent. Jon Kyl was tagged by the Democrats as their #1 target in 2000, and then couldn't field a candidate. Pederson got the job this time around partially because nobody else really wanted it, and partially because he's a self-funder (owning a fortune of around $100 million). This is probably the safest Republican seat in this group, and I predict the Republicans hold it, probably with a margin of around 10%.
Missouri -- Jim Talent is up for re-election. Talent narrowly won election in 2002 to complete the term that deceased former governor Mel Carnahan had won in 2000, and which his wife had been appointed to (and was his opponent for election). State Auditor Claire McCaskill is his opponent. This race has stayed close all year, but Talent seems to hold a slight edge. I'll go ahead and predict this one for Talent.
Montana -- Conrad Burns is up for re-election. Jon Tester is his opponent. Burns is not overly popular, and nearly every poll has shown him down. Tester is supported by DailyKos, but plays down that angle while campaigning. Burns has closed the gap to the margin of error range, and has a large lead in funding going into this final stretch, but we'll see if it's too little, too late.
Ohio -- Mike DeWine is running for re-election. Congressman Sherrod Brown is his opponent. DeWine started out ahead in this race, and then dropped behind, some polls even having him down by 20 (though that's probably more due to some of the screwy polls this year than a statement of where he's at). He faces an uphill battle for re-election. Not calling this one yet, either.
Pennsylvania -- Rick Santorum is running for re-election. State Treasurer, and son of the popular former governor, Bob Casey, Jr., is his opponent. Santorum is one of my favorite senators, is immensely important to the conservative cause in the Senate, and is absolutely hated by the Democrats. Casey is essentially a non-entity riding his father's name. Casey's been doing everythnig he can to avoid taking a position on the issues, and has even been avoiding public appearances (including at several debates, where Santorum and (sometimes) the Green candidate (who is now off the ballot) included an empty chair for Casey). His campaign hasn't even issued a press release since August. A combination of the Democrats' hatred for Santorum, conservative anger over his support for fellow senator Arlen Specter against a conservative primary challenger, and the media-enhanced view that Casey is a "moderate" are working against Santorum. He's closed the gap from his massive deficit in spring and early summer, but still has a way to go. While undecideds tend to break against the incumbent, I have a feeling that they'll break for Santorum in this race.
Rhode Island -- Lincoln Chafee is running for re-election. Sheldon Whitehouse II is his opponent. Chafee, with a lot fo help from the National Republican Senatorial Committee, managed to fend off a conservative primary challenger. Now, in the general, he's not sitting too pretty. Frankly, while I don't really want Whitehouse as a senator, I hope Chafee loses. Despite all the help he's received from Republicans, he didn't even vote for George W. Bush in 2004, and has refused to rule out switching parties. If it's a 50-50 split, I expect him to bolt the party, and if the Republicans have control, they have to give him a committee seat, on which he's about as likely to vote democrat as Republican, effectively nullifying the Republican advantage in committee (and if it ends up being a single-seat advantage, giving the advantage to the democrats). Despite all the hype about how he could hold the seat for the Republicans, he's been down in every post-primary poll I can think of. I'll predict this one for Whitehouse.
Tennessee -- Bill Frist is retiring. Bob Corker, Jr., is the Republican candidate, and Harold Ford, Jr., is the Democrat. There was an early Republican advantage in this race, which swung the other way in late summer, and has come bakc towards the Republicans this month. Ford's tried to show how pious he is by filming a campaign commercial in a church (can you imagine the outrage if a Republican had done that?), but it turns out that he went to a Playboy Superbowl party. Seems more than a little hypocritical. He also initially denied attending the party by saying that he's never been to a Playboy mansion party (the party was not at the Playboy mansion) -- very weasally, also not exactly bolstering his Christian crediblity. He then showed up at a Corker press conference, challenging him to a debate (they had recently had one). Not exactly a classy act. He does have the media firmly on his side, though (well, not exactly for the press conference crashing, which, frankly, is hard to spin in a positive manner). I'm predicting a Corker victory here.
Virginia -- George Allen is up for re-election. Jim Webb, Jr., is his opponent. Webb actually endorsed Allen in 2000, and only recently registered as a Democrat. The Washington Post has been firmly in the Webb camp, with their own ombudsman calling their "maccaca" coverage piling-on. Allen started the year as a major contender for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008, but that's pretty much gone now. It's been an exceedingly weird campaign that's done it's best to avoid anything remotely resembling an issue. While nothing but a couple of Zogby Interactive polls had Webb up before late October, a few recent polls have shown him with the lead. I'm still going with Allen on this one, though I reserve the right to change that in my final predictions.
Democrat seats: (5 figure to be rather safe)
Connecticut -- Joe Lieberman is up for re-election. I placed this here not because the Republican (Alan Schlesinger) has any chance of winning it, but because Lieberman lost the primary to Ned Lamont, who is the Democrat candidate in this race, and Lieberman is running as an indepent (under the "Connecticut for Lieberman party" banner, actually). Lieberman should win this one easily, and intends to keep caucusing with the Dems once re-elected. This is a safe seat for the Dems that I merely wanted to talk about a bit more.
Maryland -- Paul Sarbanes is retiring. Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele is the Republican candidate and Congressman Ben Cardin is the Democrat candidate. Maryland is, of course, a blue state, and that makes it difficult for a Republican. Steele has kept it close, however, and has even led in a few polls. After Cardin was bested in a debate with Steele, he skipped a debate before the state branch of the NAACP, which is normally a big supporter of democrats, but Steele, who is black, figures to pry away some votes. I dislike racial politics, but I admit that they're a fact. Not going to call this one yet, but it is leanign towards the Dems.
Michigan -- Freshman Senator Debbie Stabenow is running for re-election. Sheriff Mike Bouchard is her opponent. This was another prime Republican target, and the climate in Michigan is actually favorable to the Republicans (though, of course, it would be even more favorable if the national climate was as well). Of course, it's still going to be tough, at best. Respected political analyst Charlie Cook picked this race as his darkhorse upset, which isn't the same as him picking Bouchard to win, but it's something. It's leaning the wrong way right now, but I'll wait to call it.
Minnesota -- Mark Dayton is retiring. The Republicans had high hopes for this seat, and got the candidate they wanted in Congressman Mark Kennedy, but DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar managed to snag a large early lead and hasn't looked back. I predict a retention for the Dems.
Nebraska -- Ben Nelson is up for re-election. Pete Ricketts is his opponent. As red as Nebraska is, it's hard to call Nelson safe, but he's close to it. Following retirements in 2004 by Zell Miller and John Breaux, Nelson is, by far, the Democrat most likely to work with President Bush and the Republicans. That's why he should win re-election, and I probably could (should) have marked this a safe seat.
New Jersey -- Bob Menendez is up for election, having been appointed to the seat at the beginning of the year after John Corzine resigned the seat to become governor. Tom Kean, Jr., son of the popular former governor, is his opponent. Menendez has been linked to corruption charges, and Kean has been ahead in a few polls, but New Jersey is a state where the Republicans have repeatedly seen a shot due to corruption charges, among other things, but haven't managed to eek out a win (senate races in 2000 and 2002, and gubernatorial races in 2001 and 2005). While I'm not predicting it for Menendez yet, this would be a tough pickup for the Republicans.
Vermont -- "Independent" Jim Jeffords is retiring. He should be replaced rather easily by "independent" Congressman Bernie Sanders.
Washington -- Maria Cantwell is up for re-election. Mike McGavick is her opponent. In another year, with a better national environment, Republicans could win this. They might have even been able to win it if Dino Rossi, their 2004 gubernatorial nominee, had run (he was, essentially, cheated out of a victory in 2004 by Democrat shenanigans, and plans for a rematch in 2008). Cantwell was one of the Republicans top targets, but it seems to be too much to hope for this year. Prediction: Cantwell by a comfrortable margin.
I know there were several races that I haven't predicted yet, and I know that they all currently favor the Democrat. So, yeah, I could be open to charges of bias. I do, however, figure to call most of these for the Democrats, but I have a feeling that the Republicans will pull out at least one victory in those races, I'm just not sure where yet. I know, it's not the most scientific way to predict races, but it's what I'm going with.
First up, the Senate. While the chance of a Dem takeover is higher than zero, it's not good (for them, that is; I, personally, enjoy the likelihood that they won't take it over). The Republicans currently have 55 seats, and there's one independent who, for all practicaly purposes, is a Dem. There are 33 seats up for election this year, with 40 Republican and 27 Democrat seats not up for re-election. The Republicans made big gains with this class of seats in 1994, but the Democrats retook many of them in 2000.
The seats where incumbents should cruise to re-election for each party:
Republicans: 7 seats
Indiana -- Richard Lugar
Maine -- Olympia Snowe
Mississippi -- Trent Lott
Nevada -- John Ensign (Jack Carter, son of Jimmy, is his opponent)
Texas -- Kay Bailey Hutchison
Utah -- Orrin Hatch
Wyoming -- Craig Thomas
Democrats: 10 seats
California -- Dianne Feinstein
Delaware -- Tom Carper
Florida -- Bill Nelson
Hawaii -- Daniel Akaka
Massachusetts -- Ted Kennedy
New Mexico -- Jeff Bingaman, Jr.
New York -- Hillary Clinton
North Dakota -- Kent Conrad
West Virginia -- Robert Byrd (former Klansman, first elected in 1958)
Wisconsin -- Herb Kohl
That Florida seat being safe for the Dems is a huge disappointment, as it should have been at least competitive. Katherine Harris won't lose by as much as some of the earlier polls showed her losing by, but she's still going to lose.
The seats in play from each party (I use "in play" somewhat loosely):
Republican seats:
Arizona -- Jon Kyl is up for re-election. Jim Pederson, former state chair for the Democrats, is his opponent. Jon Kyl was tagged by the Democrats as their #1 target in 2000, and then couldn't field a candidate. Pederson got the job this time around partially because nobody else really wanted it, and partially because he's a self-funder (owning a fortune of around $100 million). This is probably the safest Republican seat in this group, and I predict the Republicans hold it, probably with a margin of around 10%.
Missouri -- Jim Talent is up for re-election. Talent narrowly won election in 2002 to complete the term that deceased former governor Mel Carnahan had won in 2000, and which his wife had been appointed to (and was his opponent for election). State Auditor Claire McCaskill is his opponent. This race has stayed close all year, but Talent seems to hold a slight edge. I'll go ahead and predict this one for Talent.
Montana -- Conrad Burns is up for re-election. Jon Tester is his opponent. Burns is not overly popular, and nearly every poll has shown him down. Tester is supported by DailyKos, but plays down that angle while campaigning. Burns has closed the gap to the margin of error range, and has a large lead in funding going into this final stretch, but we'll see if it's too little, too late.
Ohio -- Mike DeWine is running for re-election. Congressman Sherrod Brown is his opponent. DeWine started out ahead in this race, and then dropped behind, some polls even having him down by 20 (though that's probably more due to some of the screwy polls this year than a statement of where he's at). He faces an uphill battle for re-election. Not calling this one yet, either.
Pennsylvania -- Rick Santorum is running for re-election. State Treasurer, and son of the popular former governor, Bob Casey, Jr., is his opponent. Santorum is one of my favorite senators, is immensely important to the conservative cause in the Senate, and is absolutely hated by the Democrats. Casey is essentially a non-entity riding his father's name. Casey's been doing everythnig he can to avoid taking a position on the issues, and has even been avoiding public appearances (including at several debates, where Santorum and (sometimes) the Green candidate (who is now off the ballot) included an empty chair for Casey). His campaign hasn't even issued a press release since August. A combination of the Democrats' hatred for Santorum, conservative anger over his support for fellow senator Arlen Specter against a conservative primary challenger, and the media-enhanced view that Casey is a "moderate" are working against Santorum. He's closed the gap from his massive deficit in spring and early summer, but still has a way to go. While undecideds tend to break against the incumbent, I have a feeling that they'll break for Santorum in this race.
Rhode Island -- Lincoln Chafee is running for re-election. Sheldon Whitehouse II is his opponent. Chafee, with a lot fo help from the National Republican Senatorial Committee, managed to fend off a conservative primary challenger. Now, in the general, he's not sitting too pretty. Frankly, while I don't really want Whitehouse as a senator, I hope Chafee loses. Despite all the help he's received from Republicans, he didn't even vote for George W. Bush in 2004, and has refused to rule out switching parties. If it's a 50-50 split, I expect him to bolt the party, and if the Republicans have control, they have to give him a committee seat, on which he's about as likely to vote democrat as Republican, effectively nullifying the Republican advantage in committee (and if it ends up being a single-seat advantage, giving the advantage to the democrats). Despite all the hype about how he could hold the seat for the Republicans, he's been down in every post-primary poll I can think of. I'll predict this one for Whitehouse.
Tennessee -- Bill Frist is retiring. Bob Corker, Jr., is the Republican candidate, and Harold Ford, Jr., is the Democrat. There was an early Republican advantage in this race, which swung the other way in late summer, and has come bakc towards the Republicans this month. Ford's tried to show how pious he is by filming a campaign commercial in a church (can you imagine the outrage if a Republican had done that?), but it turns out that he went to a Playboy Superbowl party. Seems more than a little hypocritical. He also initially denied attending the party by saying that he's never been to a Playboy mansion party (the party was not at the Playboy mansion) -- very weasally, also not exactly bolstering his Christian crediblity. He then showed up at a Corker press conference, challenging him to a debate (they had recently had one). Not exactly a classy act. He does have the media firmly on his side, though (well, not exactly for the press conference crashing, which, frankly, is hard to spin in a positive manner). I'm predicting a Corker victory here.
Virginia -- George Allen is up for re-election. Jim Webb, Jr., is his opponent. Webb actually endorsed Allen in 2000, and only recently registered as a Democrat. The Washington Post has been firmly in the Webb camp, with their own ombudsman calling their "maccaca" coverage piling-on. Allen started the year as a major contender for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008, but that's pretty much gone now. It's been an exceedingly weird campaign that's done it's best to avoid anything remotely resembling an issue. While nothing but a couple of Zogby Interactive polls had Webb up before late October, a few recent polls have shown him with the lead. I'm still going with Allen on this one, though I reserve the right to change that in my final predictions.
Democrat seats: (5 figure to be rather safe)
Connecticut -- Joe Lieberman is up for re-election. I placed this here not because the Republican (Alan Schlesinger) has any chance of winning it, but because Lieberman lost the primary to Ned Lamont, who is the Democrat candidate in this race, and Lieberman is running as an indepent (under the "Connecticut for Lieberman party" banner, actually). Lieberman should win this one easily, and intends to keep caucusing with the Dems once re-elected. This is a safe seat for the Dems that I merely wanted to talk about a bit more.
Maryland -- Paul Sarbanes is retiring. Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele is the Republican candidate and Congressman Ben Cardin is the Democrat candidate. Maryland is, of course, a blue state, and that makes it difficult for a Republican. Steele has kept it close, however, and has even led in a few polls. After Cardin was bested in a debate with Steele, he skipped a debate before the state branch of the NAACP, which is normally a big supporter of democrats, but Steele, who is black, figures to pry away some votes. I dislike racial politics, but I admit that they're a fact. Not going to call this one yet, but it is leanign towards the Dems.
Michigan -- Freshman Senator Debbie Stabenow is running for re-election. Sheriff Mike Bouchard is her opponent. This was another prime Republican target, and the climate in Michigan is actually favorable to the Republicans (though, of course, it would be even more favorable if the national climate was as well). Of course, it's still going to be tough, at best. Respected political analyst Charlie Cook picked this race as his darkhorse upset, which isn't the same as him picking Bouchard to win, but it's something. It's leaning the wrong way right now, but I'll wait to call it.
Minnesota -- Mark Dayton is retiring. The Republicans had high hopes for this seat, and got the candidate they wanted in Congressman Mark Kennedy, but DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar managed to snag a large early lead and hasn't looked back. I predict a retention for the Dems.
Nebraska -- Ben Nelson is up for re-election. Pete Ricketts is his opponent. As red as Nebraska is, it's hard to call Nelson safe, but he's close to it. Following retirements in 2004 by Zell Miller and John Breaux, Nelson is, by far, the Democrat most likely to work with President Bush and the Republicans. That's why he should win re-election, and I probably could (should) have marked this a safe seat.
New Jersey -- Bob Menendez is up for election, having been appointed to the seat at the beginning of the year after John Corzine resigned the seat to become governor. Tom Kean, Jr., son of the popular former governor, is his opponent. Menendez has been linked to corruption charges, and Kean has been ahead in a few polls, but New Jersey is a state where the Republicans have repeatedly seen a shot due to corruption charges, among other things, but haven't managed to eek out a win (senate races in 2000 and 2002, and gubernatorial races in 2001 and 2005). While I'm not predicting it for Menendez yet, this would be a tough pickup for the Republicans.
Vermont -- "Independent" Jim Jeffords is retiring. He should be replaced rather easily by "independent" Congressman Bernie Sanders.
Washington -- Maria Cantwell is up for re-election. Mike McGavick is her opponent. In another year, with a better national environment, Republicans could win this. They might have even been able to win it if Dino Rossi, their 2004 gubernatorial nominee, had run (he was, essentially, cheated out of a victory in 2004 by Democrat shenanigans, and plans for a rematch in 2008). Cantwell was one of the Republicans top targets, but it seems to be too much to hope for this year. Prediction: Cantwell by a comfrortable margin.
I know there were several races that I haven't predicted yet, and I know that they all currently favor the Democrat. So, yeah, I could be open to charges of bias. I do, however, figure to call most of these for the Democrats, but I have a feeling that the Republicans will pull out at least one victory in those races, I'm just not sure where yet. I know, it's not the most scientific way to predict races, but it's what I'm going with.
posted by DC | 12:46 PM
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