Back to politics ...
Well, I want a political issue to write about, but I'm not quite sure which. I just wrote a goodly amount about Terri Schiavo, so I'm not much interested in getting into that right now. The two main things on my mind I want to write about are the Washington state gubernatorial election of 2004 and Iraq/the Middle East. Oh, stem cells, too. I think I'll go with the Washington one first, and get to the others within the next week.
Before you skip over this because you're thinking "Why would I care about the Washington state gubernatorial election?" (too late!), let me at least explain the basics of it and why you should be interested (aside from gubernatorial being a cool word). The election featured Republican Dino Rossi (yes, his first name is pronounced just like the Flintstones' pet -- with a name like that, how can you not be interested?) and Democrat Christine Gregoire. Now, I'm going to estimate a few numbers to save me the time of looking all of them up. I'd do the full research for a formal paper, but I'm just trying to give you a quick rundown -- I'll personally vouch for the fact that while the numbers won't be exact, they'll be close, and give you a general idea of what happened. After election night, Dino Rossi was up by about 560 votes over Christine Gregoire. There was a machine recount, after which his lead dropped considerably (I think it was less than three digits). Another recount, this one by hand, and Gregoire was ahead by 129 votes (I did double-check that one). At this point, the recounts ceased and Gregoire was declared the winner and has been sworn into office. It wasn't quite that simple, though.
During the recounts, King County (home of Seattle, the most populous county, and a bastion of Democrat voters) mysteriously "found" votes on several occasions. Each time, Gregoire benefitted. Also, 660 provisional ballots were fed into the machines and counted along with the regular ballots instead of being set aside to verify whether the voter could legally cast a ballot (after they are fed into the machine, there's no way to identify the provisional ballots and seperate them from the legitimate votes). Moreover, a discrepancy of a couple thousand existed between the number of votes and the number of voters in King County (think that's to be expected in an election with so many voters? the 2000 election total was about 1% that amount (yes, one, you read that right)). As if that wasn't enough, there were also felons voting who did not have their voting rights restored, dead people voting, and non-citizens -- evidence of over 1,000 of these illegal votes (combined) has been found. As Gregoire defeated Rossi in King County by about 58% to 40%, it would appear quite likely that she benefitted from this mess, which may have involved 4,000 votes or more. Even going by just the 1,000 illegal votes, allocate them proportionally, and you have a Gregoire advantage of 180, which is more than her statewide margin of victory.
Currently, this matter is before the courts, as Dino Rossi challenged the election results. Before I forget to note it, a win by Rossi would result in a new election, and not Rossi automatically assuming a gubernatorial role. It is before a trial court now, with the actual trial probably to begin in about a month.
How can you support Rossi when you supported Bush against Gore?
Glad you asked. There are a series of fundamental differences between this case and the Bush v. Gore deal:
1) Look at all the above problems. How many problems from Florida can you name? All those stories about Florida voter suppression? The U.S. Civil Rights Commission (under the control of Democrats, I might add)investigated, and failed to document a single case. You might mention the Palm Beach butterfly ballot as being a problem, but a) if people are too dumb to use a ballot correctly, that's their fault (I still can't believe the Democrats used that, basically saying "The people who wanted to vote for us were too stupid to figure out a ballot that a child could use.") and b) Buchanan had won more votes than that there during the 1996 Republican Presidential Primary, so him receiving that many votes is not completely out of the question (though I agree that at least some of the votes for him were probably intended for Gore). The problems I saw in Florida tended to hurt Bush rather than Gore.
2) Hand recounts are not trustworthy, machines are more accurate. Any election expert not trying for partisan advantage will tell you that. Both Gore and Gregoire benefitted from hand recounts in strongly Democrat-influenced areas.
3) "Divining" votes in Florida. I'm sure most of you remember talk of dimpled, pregnant, and hanging chads in Florida. That is, quite simple, not a reliable way to judge "voter intention" when counting ballots. Someone resting a stylus on a choice can create an indentation without actually trying to vote for that candidate. Chads were found lying on the tables and floors where ballots were being counted. Foul play at work?
4) Voter error vs. election official error. If someone screws up voting, they have only themselves to blame, and it is no loss. However, if an election official screws up, by either not allowing their vote and disenfranchising them, or by counting invalid votes and dimishing the value of their vote, it is a problem.
5) Illegal votes. As already mentioned, it is quite possible that Christine Gregoire got her winning margin over Dino Rossi through illegal votes. There were felons who voted in Florida (and other such problems), too, so why wasn't that an issue? Because felons tend to vote for Democrats by a lopsided margin. That whole view (largely accurate) of Republicans being "hard on crime" and Democrats being "soft on crime" and all that. That's also played a role in Democrats wanting to re-enfranchise felons, and, to a lesser degree, in the Republicans opposition to such. (Laws on felons voting differ by state, with very few (one to three) never taking away their right to vote, several not letting them vote only while in jail, some for x years after they complete their sentence, and some states require the felon to petition for a reinstatement of their voting rights.)
Before you skip over this because you're thinking "Why would I care about the Washington state gubernatorial election?" (too late!), let me at least explain the basics of it and why you should be interested (aside from gubernatorial being a cool word). The election featured Republican Dino Rossi (yes, his first name is pronounced just like the Flintstones' pet -- with a name like that, how can you not be interested?) and Democrat Christine Gregoire. Now, I'm going to estimate a few numbers to save me the time of looking all of them up. I'd do the full research for a formal paper, but I'm just trying to give you a quick rundown -- I'll personally vouch for the fact that while the numbers won't be exact, they'll be close, and give you a general idea of what happened. After election night, Dino Rossi was up by about 560 votes over Christine Gregoire. There was a machine recount, after which his lead dropped considerably (I think it was less than three digits). Another recount, this one by hand, and Gregoire was ahead by 129 votes (I did double-check that one). At this point, the recounts ceased and Gregoire was declared the winner and has been sworn into office. It wasn't quite that simple, though.
During the recounts, King County (home of Seattle, the most populous county, and a bastion of Democrat voters) mysteriously "found" votes on several occasions. Each time, Gregoire benefitted. Also, 660 provisional ballots were fed into the machines and counted along with the regular ballots instead of being set aside to verify whether the voter could legally cast a ballot (after they are fed into the machine, there's no way to identify the provisional ballots and seperate them from the legitimate votes). Moreover, a discrepancy of a couple thousand existed between the number of votes and the number of voters in King County (think that's to be expected in an election with so many voters? the 2000 election total was about 1% that amount (yes, one, you read that right)). As if that wasn't enough, there were also felons voting who did not have their voting rights restored, dead people voting, and non-citizens -- evidence of over 1,000 of these illegal votes (combined) has been found. As Gregoire defeated Rossi in King County by about 58% to 40%, it would appear quite likely that she benefitted from this mess, which may have involved 4,000 votes or more. Even going by just the 1,000 illegal votes, allocate them proportionally, and you have a Gregoire advantage of 180, which is more than her statewide margin of victory.
Currently, this matter is before the courts, as Dino Rossi challenged the election results. Before I forget to note it, a win by Rossi would result in a new election, and not Rossi automatically assuming a gubernatorial role. It is before a trial court now, with the actual trial probably to begin in about a month.
How can you support Rossi when you supported Bush against Gore?
Glad you asked. There are a series of fundamental differences between this case and the Bush v. Gore deal:
1) Look at all the above problems. How many problems from Florida can you name? All those stories about Florida voter suppression? The U.S. Civil Rights Commission (under the control of Democrats, I might add)investigated, and failed to document a single case. You might mention the Palm Beach butterfly ballot as being a problem, but a) if people are too dumb to use a ballot correctly, that's their fault (I still can't believe the Democrats used that, basically saying "The people who wanted to vote for us were too stupid to figure out a ballot that a child could use.") and b) Buchanan had won more votes than that there during the 1996 Republican Presidential Primary, so him receiving that many votes is not completely out of the question (though I agree that at least some of the votes for him were probably intended for Gore). The problems I saw in Florida tended to hurt Bush rather than Gore.
2) Hand recounts are not trustworthy, machines are more accurate. Any election expert not trying for partisan advantage will tell you that. Both Gore and Gregoire benefitted from hand recounts in strongly Democrat-influenced areas.
3) "Divining" votes in Florida. I'm sure most of you remember talk of dimpled, pregnant, and hanging chads in Florida. That is, quite simple, not a reliable way to judge "voter intention" when counting ballots. Someone resting a stylus on a choice can create an indentation without actually trying to vote for that candidate. Chads were found lying on the tables and floors where ballots were being counted. Foul play at work?
4) Voter error vs. election official error. If someone screws up voting, they have only themselves to blame, and it is no loss. However, if an election official screws up, by either not allowing their vote and disenfranchising them, or by counting invalid votes and dimishing the value of their vote, it is a problem.
5) Illegal votes. As already mentioned, it is quite possible that Christine Gregoire got her winning margin over Dino Rossi through illegal votes. There were felons who voted in Florida (and other such problems), too, so why wasn't that an issue? Because felons tend to vote for Democrats by a lopsided margin. That whole view (largely accurate) of Republicans being "hard on crime" and Democrats being "soft on crime" and all that. That's also played a role in Democrats wanting to re-enfranchise felons, and, to a lesser degree, in the Republicans opposition to such. (Laws on felons voting differ by state, with very few (one to three) never taking away their right to vote, several not letting them vote only while in jail, some for x years after they complete their sentence, and some states require the felon to petition for a reinstatement of their voting rights.)
More on the race/recount/court battle can be found at Sound Politics. (Clever name)
Well, that's enough for now. It should give you feeling for what is probably the most underreported story of the 2004 election. Another political report coming either tomorrow or next week and non-political updates wifli.
posted by DC | 4:01 AM
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