Free Agents and Other Baseball Musings
I find the way the whole Alex Rodriguez thing has played out to be quite amusing. I was going to laugh if he ended up taking a paycut, but that now seems unlikely, as he has crawled back to the Yankees. There was lots of talk of a $300 million contract being a "conservative estimate" but I was more than a little skeptical -- who, besides the Yankees, was going to pay $30 million a year? And the Yankees seemed more likely to go for a seven-year extension worth $210 million (not as their initial offer, but as something they could be negotiated into). Scott Boras blew this one, big time. Maybe he was trying to over compensate after the Red Sox got the better of him in the Daisuke Matsuzaka negotiations.
On to the other free agents ...
It has always been my belief that Posada, Rivera, and Pettite would be back with the Yankees. Posada's agreed to come back (I don't think everything's been quite finalized), Pettite says that if he plays, it will be for the Yankees (and he has said that he felt better physically at the end of the season than he has in some time), and Rivera still seems most likely to come back as a Yankee. So the talk of the Yankees splintering was, big surprise, overblown. As to the talk of Rivera to the Dodgers, I believe that he'd have some genuine interest in playing for Torre there, but that's he's sing it more as a negotiation ploy with the Yankees. Though if Rivera is looking to pad his stats, the NL West would be much nicer to his ERA and so forth than the AL East, and the Dodgers' offense lacks the potency to deliver as many blowouts as the Yankees, which should result in more save opportunities (yes, the save is vastly overrated, but people still pay attention to it).
Keith Law was asked during a chat today which 2007 free agent signings will be the worst, along with the worst trade, and he replied "Romero, Rowand, Hunter, Linebrink, Glavine, and the worst trade will be whatever trade the Dodgers make that includes one or more of Kemp/Kershaw/Billingsley." Rowand and Hunter both seem good possibilities to me, somewhat analogous to Matthews and Pierre last offseason. Offensively, Torii Hunter nearly equaled the best season of his career, and given the emphasis placed on RBI's and, to a lesser extent, runs, most would consider it the best season of his career. His defense, while good, is overrated. The same offensive and defensive analysis can be applied to Aaron Rowand. Career year on offense and overrated defense equals bigger than deserved payday. Hunter is 32 and Rowand is 30, so these guys are unlikely to improve and likely to decline by the end of their contract. Linebrink is likely to get a deal based on his reputation from 2004-2005 rather than the way he's played the last couple of seasons. Romero already got a deal from the Phillies based on his performance with the this half-season. Glavine's WHIP was over 1.4, his ERA was nearly 4.50, his strikeouts were down, and all this while pitching in a pitcher's park (which doesn't really affect the strikeouts, but the first two it's relevant for). He still has a reputation, though, and is likely to squeeze more money out of the Braves than they should give.
I'm interested to see what happens with Andruw Jones. Prior to the season, Jayson Stark named him the most overrated player in baseball in his book, and I was inclined to agree (or at least put him in the top, say, three). His poor offensive year, and continued decline on defense, makes me wonder what will happen. He would have been looking for the second-biggest payday this offseason (behind Rodriguez), but now will be much lower, both in terms of financial compensation per year and number of years. He might gamble with a one-year contract to boost his value, or he might sucker some team into ignoring this last season and immediately thrust himself into the discussion of worst offseason signings.
Sammy Sosa wants a $7 million contract. Good luck on that.
I'd heard rumors about the Yankees pursuing Torii Hunter, and then trading Melky Cabrera. This strikes me as a bad idea. Even the Yankees have a budget, and they can save over $40 million over the next four years by staying with Cabrera, who's Hunter's equal on defense, and put up a similar batting average and on-base percentage, though the slugging showed a marked difference. Cabrera is young enough that he figures to improve on offense (especially power), while Hunter is likely to decline, both due to age and this being something of a career year for him. By 2009, Hunter will be no better, and considerably more expensive.
While I was typing this, word came that Barry Bonds was indicted. Well, at least there won't be any more of that "will he be indicted?" talk. However, as to his baseball status, I'm going to say the same thing I've been saying, that nobody seems to listen to: he won't be in jail based on an indictment (he'll post bail), and it's likely to be a year before the trial starts, or, at least, ends (though the timing of the indictment does not allow for much leeway on this front, especially if his new team expects to play October baseball). Sure, it's likely to affect the kinds of offers he'll get, but as far as affecting his ability to play goes, it's not likely to do much. Besides, perjury and obstruction of justice? All he has to do is get semantic about what the meaning of "is" is, and he'll be free. More seriously, if the trial is in San Francisco, I see a good chance of him not being acquitted or a hung jury, the latter leading to a new trial or the government giving up. I'm also curious about the indictment happening now. What evidence do they have that they didn't have before? Prior to this news, I was considering an indictment unlikely under the premise of "If they were going to do it, they would have done it by now." We'll see what happens.
For those who somehow thought that getting rid of Bonds would solve all the Giants' age issues, they're re-signing Omar Vizquel, and are saying positive things about doing the same with Pedro Feliz (who isn't that old, but is old enough that he's not getting any better). Their age issues seem to be more a problem of Brian Sabean (their GM) than Bonds.
Also, when searching for some contract information, I discovered Cot's Baseball Contracts, which is a very good site for that information. Many places will tell you how much a player is making this year, and news articles will tell you how much they're going to make from a new contract, but that site has a player's complete salary history along with future salary information. I highly recommend it.
On to the other free agents ...
It has always been my belief that Posada, Rivera, and Pettite would be back with the Yankees. Posada's agreed to come back (I don't think everything's been quite finalized), Pettite says that if he plays, it will be for the Yankees (and he has said that he felt better physically at the end of the season than he has in some time), and Rivera still seems most likely to come back as a Yankee. So the talk of the Yankees splintering was, big surprise, overblown. As to the talk of Rivera to the Dodgers, I believe that he'd have some genuine interest in playing for Torre there, but that's he's sing it more as a negotiation ploy with the Yankees. Though if Rivera is looking to pad his stats, the NL West would be much nicer to his ERA and so forth than the AL East, and the Dodgers' offense lacks the potency to deliver as many blowouts as the Yankees, which should result in more save opportunities (yes, the save is vastly overrated, but people still pay attention to it).
Keith Law was asked during a chat today which 2007 free agent signings will be the worst, along with the worst trade, and he replied "Romero, Rowand, Hunter, Linebrink, Glavine, and the worst trade will be whatever trade the Dodgers make that includes one or more of Kemp/Kershaw/Billingsley." Rowand and Hunter both seem good possibilities to me, somewhat analogous to Matthews and Pierre last offseason. Offensively, Torii Hunter nearly equaled the best season of his career, and given the emphasis placed on RBI's and, to a lesser extent, runs, most would consider it the best season of his career. His defense, while good, is overrated. The same offensive and defensive analysis can be applied to Aaron Rowand. Career year on offense and overrated defense equals bigger than deserved payday. Hunter is 32 and Rowand is 30, so these guys are unlikely to improve and likely to decline by the end of their contract. Linebrink is likely to get a deal based on his reputation from 2004-2005 rather than the way he's played the last couple of seasons. Romero already got a deal from the Phillies based on his performance with the this half-season. Glavine's WHIP was over 1.4, his ERA was nearly 4.50, his strikeouts were down, and all this while pitching in a pitcher's park (which doesn't really affect the strikeouts, but the first two it's relevant for). He still has a reputation, though, and is likely to squeeze more money out of the Braves than they should give.
I'm interested to see what happens with Andruw Jones. Prior to the season, Jayson Stark named him the most overrated player in baseball in his book, and I was inclined to agree (or at least put him in the top, say, three). His poor offensive year, and continued decline on defense, makes me wonder what will happen. He would have been looking for the second-biggest payday this offseason (behind Rodriguez), but now will be much lower, both in terms of financial compensation per year and number of years. He might gamble with a one-year contract to boost his value, or he might sucker some team into ignoring this last season and immediately thrust himself into the discussion of worst offseason signings.
Sammy Sosa wants a $7 million contract. Good luck on that.
I'd heard rumors about the Yankees pursuing Torii Hunter, and then trading Melky Cabrera. This strikes me as a bad idea. Even the Yankees have a budget, and they can save over $40 million over the next four years by staying with Cabrera, who's Hunter's equal on defense, and put up a similar batting average and on-base percentage, though the slugging showed a marked difference. Cabrera is young enough that he figures to improve on offense (especially power), while Hunter is likely to decline, both due to age and this being something of a career year for him. By 2009, Hunter will be no better, and considerably more expensive.
While I was typing this, word came that Barry Bonds was indicted. Well, at least there won't be any more of that "will he be indicted?" talk. However, as to his baseball status, I'm going to say the same thing I've been saying, that nobody seems to listen to: he won't be in jail based on an indictment (he'll post bail), and it's likely to be a year before the trial starts, or, at least, ends (though the timing of the indictment does not allow for much leeway on this front, especially if his new team expects to play October baseball). Sure, it's likely to affect the kinds of offers he'll get, but as far as affecting his ability to play goes, it's not likely to do much. Besides, perjury and obstruction of justice? All he has to do is get semantic about what the meaning of "is" is, and he'll be free. More seriously, if the trial is in San Francisco, I see a good chance of him not being acquitted or a hung jury, the latter leading to a new trial or the government giving up. I'm also curious about the indictment happening now. What evidence do they have that they didn't have before? Prior to this news, I was considering an indictment unlikely under the premise of "If they were going to do it, they would have done it by now." We'll see what happens.
For those who somehow thought that getting rid of Bonds would solve all the Giants' age issues, they're re-signing Omar Vizquel, and are saying positive things about doing the same with Pedro Feliz (who isn't that old, but is old enough that he's not getting any better). Their age issues seem to be more a problem of Brian Sabean (their GM) than Bonds.
Also, when searching for some contract information, I discovered Cot's Baseball Contracts, which is a very good site for that information. Many places will tell you how much a player is making this year, and news articles will tell you how much they're going to make from a new contract, but that site has a player's complete salary history along with future salary information. I highly recommend it.
Labels: baseball
posted by DC | 7:25 AM
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