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Location: Metro Phoenix, Arizona, United States

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Thursday, October 11, 2007

The Second Annual Playoff Repick Because All My First Round Picks Lost

Wow, that was even worse than last year.

I'll go with Rockies over Indians in the World Series.

The Rockies are a better team than the Diamondbacks, who, frankly, are not very good. Their luck has to run out at some point. The Rockies' lineup is so much better that I'll skip the analysis and leave it at bald assertion. As to pitching, the Diamondbacks have the best starter in Brandon Webb, though he doesn't guarantee them a victory the way some "analysts" would have you believe. One moronic "insight" I saw gave the Diamondbacks the edge in game one because Jeff Francis is "capable of making mistakes" -- a poor insight not only in that everyone, obviously, is capable of making mistakes, but also in that Webb has repeatedly made them against Colorado this season: in six starts, the final one was the only one in which he did not give up at least four earned runs, and the 7IP 8H 2R 2ER 2BB 2K performance he turned in for that game was hardly dominate. Francis is a capable pitcher, and two of his three starts against the Diamondbacks this season went well. Sure, small sample sizes and all, but this game is not the gimme for the Diamondbacks that some make it out to be. As for the rest of the pitching staffs, I'd give the Rockies a slight edge which evaporates if they pitch Jorge Julio. Both teams have great defense, too. The biggest differences are lineups and number one starter, and between he much larger lineup advantage, and the fact that the number one starter currently looks to play in only two games (but even considering the possibility of three), the edge has to go to the Rockies.

As to picking the Indians, I'm aware that it's more of a contrarian view. Mostly, I think Sabathia and Beckett are roughly equal, and Carmona has the edge over whoever the Red Sox throw out as their number two (looks like it will be Schilling). Daisuke Matsuzaka has suffered a performance drop-off, and I don't really see him as being better than whoever the Indians throw out. I'd say the Red Sox have the better lineup, but not by a wide margin. The Red Sox do have a large edge on hype, though.

I'd say the Rockies-Diamondbacks is more likely to go 5-6 games, while Indians-Red Sox is more of a 6-7 game series. There are my thoughts, we'll see what happens.

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