Talkin' Baseball

We're about a month into the season, which is enough for some evaluation. First off, I must agree with Jayson Stark -- April matters. Of course, it's not a perfect predictor of the rest of the season, but it is something to go by, and much better than some preseason predictions (I'll even talk about mine later -- they aren't all going that well). Stark looked at playoff teams back to 1982 and looks at where they stood after April; because I don't get paid to write about baseball like him -- and because I'm lazy -- I'll use some of his research. Out of 128 playoff teams in that period, only four were more than three games under .500 at the end of April ('87 Tigers, '89 Blue Jays, '95 Reds (who only played five games, so including them is kinda iffy), and '01 A's) and only three finished more than 4.5 games out of first place (those Tigers and A's, plus the 2002 Angels). In that same timespan, 108 teams finished first in their division; 60 led at the end of April, and another 30 were within 2.5 games -- so, historically speaking, you're looking at one of this year's division winners being more than 2.5 back (though probably less than 5), two who are almost leading, and three who are leading.

Some surprising starts for several teams. First, several who were considered contenders for division crowns finished the month below .500: Yankees, Phillies, A's, Mets, Padres, Astros, and Rangers were all teams that I heard getting some consideration for their division titles or wild cards. In addition, Boston barely escaped finishing the month going under .500, with a 12-11 record, and the Giants won their last three games of the month to finish at 11-11. If any team is equipped to overcome such a poor start and go against the grain of history, it would be the Yankees, but it's still a difficult task. April is a psychologically important month, and a losing record in it can affect a team's psyche more than one in, say, June. A veteran team used to winning like the Yankees can overcome that, while a team like the Phillies, who have lately become known more for failing to live up to expectations, is less likely to overcome their bad start.

Conversely, several clubs had unexpectedly great starts, most especially the Orioles and White Sox, but the Diamondbacks as well, to a lesser degree. The White Sox currently have the best record in the majors, and the Orioles are leading the tough American League East (where the Red Sox and Yankees are a surprising third and fourth, respectively). The Diamondbacks spent some time atop the standings in the National League West, but have slipped behind the Dodgers.

On to player news, which I, for one, think of as less indicative of season performance than how the teams have performed. Certainly it plays some role -- a person with 8 or 9 homeruns is unlikely to finish below 30 (barring injury), or a situtation like Derek Jeter having an average around .150 in mid-May (which led to his season average being sub-.300 despite having a .330ish average the rest of the way) -- but it does not necessarily say much about how the player will perform for the whole season (Ichiro Suzuki got off to a slow start last year, but still set a record for most hits in a season, thanks in part to finishing one at-bat short of the single-season record).

Rockies rookie Clint Barnes has been an amazing surprise, currently tied for the major league lead with a .416 batting average. That figures to come down once pitchers figure him out better, but he's certainly making an early case for rookie of the year. Brian Roberts of the Orioles, who was a rather blah player the last two seasons, has busted out with April stats of 8 HR, 26 RBI, 21 R, 10 SB, .379 BA, .459 OBP, and .726 SLG; definitely the AL's April MVP, narrowly ahead of his teammate Miguel Tejada (8 HR, 31 RBI, 18 R, .347/.388/.684), which mostly sums up why the Orioles are doing ridiculously well. Conversely, struggling players include Jim Thome (1 HR in 79 AB, .203 BA), Ken Griffey, Jr. (no HR until around 75 AB, still sub-.250), Aaron Boone (4 HR in 73 AB, but a .123 BA), Eric Chavez (2 HR, 9 RBI, 8 R, hitting right at the Mendoza line), Adrian Beltre (.238), Jermaine Dye (.175), and Rafael Palmeiro (1 HR, 7 RBI, .232). Back to a positive note, Derrek Lee of the Cubs is doing quite well, the NL's April MVP at 7 HR, 28 RBI, 20 R, .419/.490/.767 on the month.

As for team stats, the Giants have surprised a lot of people, as they are currently second in the NL in team batting average (behind the Rockies, which is like being first) and first in runs per game despite the lack of Barry Bonds in the lineup. The giants are routinely underestimated -- just because they don't have any other big names in the lineup, people dismiss them. However, they have a lot of good players who are capable of getting the job done, and that's all you really need. I don't think they'll stay quite this good without Bonds, but other teams underestimate them at their own risk.

Now, on to an update of my predictions:

The Yankees, Cubs, and Giants are ranked 4, 2, and 3 in their divisions, respectively. The Yankees will eventually climb, the Cubs have their work cut out for them, and the Giants are two games out of first and hot (plus a half game out of second with another game against the D-backs (who are in second) tonight). I'm not one for abandoning my predictions so readily, but not many people would be going with the first two at this point.

Looks like I was wrong on Barry, mid-June seems more likely. I'll go with a 25 HR season. Pedro has certainly not been a bust so far. Troy Glaus has done as well as anyone could reasonably expect, and even a bit better (though his last two seasons combine for 149 games played, which I had in mind when making my prediction -- if he only plays half the year, that would fulfill my prediction). Vazquez and Ortiz both have ERA's over 5.00, and have win-loss records of 3-2 and 2-1, respectively; the ERA is bad enough for my prediction, but they're both winning so far (though Ortiz was lucky to escape without a loss last night). Sammy Sosa is a bit of a mixed bag; most of his numbers are somewhat down, though he's been getting non-HR hits more frequently, so his average is up from last year, at about what it was in 2003. Craig Biggio has been beaned three times so far, leaving him eight behind Don Baylor's modern record, another five behind Tommy Tucker for second all time, and fifteen beyond that is Hughie Jennings's all time record.

So far, Ken Griffey, Jr. is the only player to pass Babe Ruth on the all time strikeout list. However, there's a cluster of players closing in. Here's a list of some players and the number of strikeouts they need to tie Ruth:

Player Strikeouts
Tim Salmon 14
Rafael Palmeiro 16
Jose Hernandez 32
Jim Edmonds 37
Juan Gonzales 57
Benito Santiago 60
Carlos Delgado 65
Jeff Kent 66
Manny Ramirez 79
Brett Boone 85
Marquis Grissom 96
Jeremy Burnitz 117

That should be everyone with a legitimate chance.

Okay, that's way long enough and I need to be going anyways. So long for now.