A Mid-Season Baseball Report
I meant to do a half-season update around the all-star break, but, well, didn't.
Speaking of the all-star break, Uggla's performance was really something. His three errors, three strikeouts, and a GIDP were not only unprecedented in All-Star history, but, according to Elias, has never happened in a regular-season or post-season game, either.
Back on the game, I wasn't able to watch it as I was working that night, but I do have a radio at work and was able to listen to part of it. I listened starting in the bottom of the second, heard several innings, stopping shortly before the American League scored their first run. fter attending to other matters, I turned it back on in the bottom of the eleventh and listened through to the end. It was quite an amazing game; I only wish it had gone on a bit longer, as another inning or two would have brought position players in to pitch. On the radio, the announcers had started to mention the possibility of another tie, which, while very unpleasant, at least would have been more defensible than the 12-inning one from a few years ago. In some post-game write-up, I read that Bud Selig was basically ordering them not to let it end in a tie, but as that was not widely reported, and not sourced in the article, it might have been merely conjecture.
On the ever-exciting strikeout front, Ryan Howard has slowed down his pace, but should still pass 200, with a current projection of 212. However, he might not even lead the majors with that figure, as Jack Cust has picked up his pace, and is currently projected to wiff 206 times. They might not even be the only players joining a newly-minted 200-strikeout club, as Mark Reynolds is on pace for 197. Three players passing the single-season strikeout record would be pretty amazing, but it actually would not be unprecedented. My notes on the matter are currently at work, but there was one season, I think in the early 1950's, which saw three or four players surpass the previous record. The strikeout record also seems to be broken in spurts, with several consecutive or near-consecutive seasons seeing it broken followed by the record laying dormant for a decade or three. Again, my notes on the matter are at work. Perhaps I shall retrieve them and make a post on the history of the strikeout record. The Diamondbacks were on pace to become the first team with three players to each strikeout 160 times or more, but the injury to Justin Upton will hurt their chances, unless he's activated very soon (Chris Young has also fallen a rounding error behind the pace).
My beloved Cubs still have the best record in the National League, though not the majors anymore. However, they're only one game ahead of the Brewers in the division, with the Cardinals not far behind. As they've played better at home than on the road, I'm hoping they can pull it out and win the division, though, failing that, I'm confident they can hold off the Cardinals (and other also-rans) for the wild card.
The Diamondbacks have unsurprisingly fallen back to Earth. That entire division is an unbelievable mess, especially considering that it was considered one of the strongest in baseball entering the year. The Dodgers would have an easier time winning if they dumped Andruw Jones. They need to sign a new center fielder this offseason -- third time's the charm. One of the biggest surprises in the division is that Greg Maddux only has three wins. He's nowhere near his old self, true, but he hasn't pitched that poorly this year, he's just received poor run support.
In the NL East, the race between the Mets and Phillies has been good; I think the Marlins aren't really legitimate contenders, and the Braves have been very unlucky. Johan Santana has not rebounded from what was, for him, a subpar year last year, but he's still been very good; unfortunately, too many people look at won-loss to determine how good he's been, without realizing that he's received atrocious run support.
In the AL East, we've gone through the annual ritual of all the pundits, and many fans, considering the Yankees out of the race by Memorial Day. Currently, however, they're three games back of the Rays for the division, and two games behind the Red Sox for the wild card. They've had more than their share of injury problems (Matsui, Posada, and Hughes being the most notable long-term injuries, plus a slew of shorter ones), and players giving subpar performances (most notably their double-play combination of Jeter and Cano, and their two rookie starting pitchers in their opening day rotation, Hughes and Kennedy), but they're quite in it, and just picked up Nady and Marte from the Pirates, which should be a boost. The bird teams aren't really worth talking about, except perhaps to note that Halladay has been awesome, with seven first-half complete games, which ties his second-best single-season performance, and gives him a good chance at his first 10 CG season.
The AL Central has been one of the screwiest divisions (along with the NL West; I can't quite decide which is screwier). The White Sox have played well above their level, and the Indians well below theirs (though bad luck has factored in the latter team's performance). The Tigers have fallen short of the expectations of even those who knew their pitching wasn't good enough to match the pre-season hype surrounding the team. The Twins have played better than most people predicted, but they seem to have a habit of doing that.
The AL West is the only division with four teams that are off their run-differential expected won-loss records by at least four games -- a fact made more impressive by it being the only division with only four teams. The Angels exceed theirs by eight games, the Rangers by five, while the Athletics fall short by five games and the Mariners by four. While the Mariners, like the Tigers, were overhyped entering the year, they, like the Tigers, have greatly underperformed even the more level-headed predictions of their performance. It looks like Thigpen's save record is finally falling, as Francisco Rodriguez already has 43 saves and is on pace for 68, which would shatter the current mark of 57. I've always been amazed that the record hasn't fallen sooner. Thigpen was always sort of an odd holder for that record, too, as his career save total (off the top of my head) was only 201. Actually, I decided to go look him up; I was right on his career saves total, but as for single-season totals, he only had three other 25-save seasons, which came in at 34, 34, and 30. The fifty save mrk has been reached nine other times (including twice each of Mariano Rivera and Eric Gagne), and the closest anyone has come is 55 (Gagne in 2003 and Smoltz in 2002). For all practical purposes, save records began in 1990, and that's when Thigpen set the record (shattering the previous record of 46). A quick glance over the leaderboard shows only Jeff Reardon, Dave Righetti, Dennis Eckersley, Dan Quissenberry, Bruce Sutter, Steve Bedrosian, and Mark Davis (who wins the "one of these things doesn't belong" prize, as he had less than 10 career saves) reaching the 40-save mark before 1990, with twice each for Quisenberry and Reardon, for a total of nine. The years 1990-2007 saw 101 40-save seasons, plus nine players are on pace for 40 saves this season alone (including Rodriguez).
In other news, I've heard that a sticking point in trade talks to acquire Brian Roberts is the Cubs don't want to give up Jason Marquis; if true, I only have this to say: "Give him away! Give him away now!" Marquis is ... not good. Roberts, on the other hand, is good. The only problem I really see in acquiring Roberts would be where to put all the players, but I see the most likely solution being keeping Theriot at short, Soriano in left, moving Fukudome to center, and DeRosa to right, with Lee, Roberts, Ramirez, and Soto occupying first, second, third, and catcher, respectively and obviously.
The Diamondbacks seemed to get Rauch pretty cheaply from the Nationals, and the Yankees did likewise with Nady and Marte from the Pirates. While the return was low, at least the teams seemed smart enough to trade them for something. The Nationals have been hanging onto their players at the deadline recently, and signing some to unwise contract extensions (the trend has continued this year with Christian Guzman). The Pirates ... well, they're just a mess in every which way.
The Astros are delusional and decided to add Randy Wolf.
The Phillies got Joe Blanton, who is terribly overrated. An improvement over Adam Eaton, sure, but that's really all the team can say it did: improve their fifth starter.
The Brewers acquired Ray Durham while they were playing the Giants. I'd like to see a repeat of an event that's previously happened -- though I can't recall when, what teams, or what players -- with two teams trading players between games of a doubleheader against each other.
Speaking of the all-star break, Uggla's performance was really something. His three errors, three strikeouts, and a GIDP were not only unprecedented in All-Star history, but, according to Elias, has never happened in a regular-season or post-season game, either.
Back on the game, I wasn't able to watch it as I was working that night, but I do have a radio at work and was able to listen to part of it. I listened starting in the bottom of the second, heard several innings, stopping shortly before the American League scored their first run. fter attending to other matters, I turned it back on in the bottom of the eleventh and listened through to the end. It was quite an amazing game; I only wish it had gone on a bit longer, as another inning or two would have brought position players in to pitch. On the radio, the announcers had started to mention the possibility of another tie, which, while very unpleasant, at least would have been more defensible than the 12-inning one from a few years ago. In some post-game write-up, I read that Bud Selig was basically ordering them not to let it end in a tie, but as that was not widely reported, and not sourced in the article, it might have been merely conjecture.
On the ever-exciting strikeout front, Ryan Howard has slowed down his pace, but should still pass 200, with a current projection of 212. However, he might not even lead the majors with that figure, as Jack Cust has picked up his pace, and is currently projected to wiff 206 times. They might not even be the only players joining a newly-minted 200-strikeout club, as Mark Reynolds is on pace for 197. Three players passing the single-season strikeout record would be pretty amazing, but it actually would not be unprecedented. My notes on the matter are currently at work, but there was one season, I think in the early 1950's, which saw three or four players surpass the previous record. The strikeout record also seems to be broken in spurts, with several consecutive or near-consecutive seasons seeing it broken followed by the record laying dormant for a decade or three. Again, my notes on the matter are at work. Perhaps I shall retrieve them and make a post on the history of the strikeout record. The Diamondbacks were on pace to become the first team with three players to each strikeout 160 times or more, but the injury to Justin Upton will hurt their chances, unless he's activated very soon (Chris Young has also fallen a rounding error behind the pace).
My beloved Cubs still have the best record in the National League, though not the majors anymore. However, they're only one game ahead of the Brewers in the division, with the Cardinals not far behind. As they've played better at home than on the road, I'm hoping they can pull it out and win the division, though, failing that, I'm confident they can hold off the Cardinals (and other also-rans) for the wild card.
The Diamondbacks have unsurprisingly fallen back to Earth. That entire division is an unbelievable mess, especially considering that it was considered one of the strongest in baseball entering the year. The Dodgers would have an easier time winning if they dumped Andruw Jones. They need to sign a new center fielder this offseason -- third time's the charm. One of the biggest surprises in the division is that Greg Maddux only has three wins. He's nowhere near his old self, true, but he hasn't pitched that poorly this year, he's just received poor run support.
In the NL East, the race between the Mets and Phillies has been good; I think the Marlins aren't really legitimate contenders, and the Braves have been very unlucky. Johan Santana has not rebounded from what was, for him, a subpar year last year, but he's still been very good; unfortunately, too many people look at won-loss to determine how good he's been, without realizing that he's received atrocious run support.
In the AL East, we've gone through the annual ritual of all the pundits, and many fans, considering the Yankees out of the race by Memorial Day. Currently, however, they're three games back of the Rays for the division, and two games behind the Red Sox for the wild card. They've had more than their share of injury problems (Matsui, Posada, and Hughes being the most notable long-term injuries, plus a slew of shorter ones), and players giving subpar performances (most notably their double-play combination of Jeter and Cano, and their two rookie starting pitchers in their opening day rotation, Hughes and Kennedy), but they're quite in it, and just picked up Nady and Marte from the Pirates, which should be a boost. The bird teams aren't really worth talking about, except perhaps to note that Halladay has been awesome, with seven first-half complete games, which ties his second-best single-season performance, and gives him a good chance at his first 10 CG season.
The AL Central has been one of the screwiest divisions (along with the NL West; I can't quite decide which is screwier). The White Sox have played well above their level, and the Indians well below theirs (though bad luck has factored in the latter team's performance). The Tigers have fallen short of the expectations of even those who knew their pitching wasn't good enough to match the pre-season hype surrounding the team. The Twins have played better than most people predicted, but they seem to have a habit of doing that.
The AL West is the only division with four teams that are off their run-differential expected won-loss records by at least four games -- a fact made more impressive by it being the only division with only four teams. The Angels exceed theirs by eight games, the Rangers by five, while the Athletics fall short by five games and the Mariners by four. While the Mariners, like the Tigers, were overhyped entering the year, they, like the Tigers, have greatly underperformed even the more level-headed predictions of their performance. It looks like Thigpen's save record is finally falling, as Francisco Rodriguez already has 43 saves and is on pace for 68, which would shatter the current mark of 57. I've always been amazed that the record hasn't fallen sooner. Thigpen was always sort of an odd holder for that record, too, as his career save total (off the top of my head) was only 201. Actually, I decided to go look him up; I was right on his career saves total, but as for single-season totals, he only had three other 25-save seasons, which came in at 34, 34, and 30. The fifty save mrk has been reached nine other times (including twice each of Mariano Rivera and Eric Gagne), and the closest anyone has come is 55 (Gagne in 2003 and Smoltz in 2002). For all practical purposes, save records began in 1990, and that's when Thigpen set the record (shattering the previous record of 46). A quick glance over the leaderboard shows only Jeff Reardon, Dave Righetti, Dennis Eckersley, Dan Quissenberry, Bruce Sutter, Steve Bedrosian, and Mark Davis (who wins the "one of these things doesn't belong" prize, as he had less than 10 career saves) reaching the 40-save mark before 1990, with twice each for Quisenberry and Reardon, for a total of nine. The years 1990-2007 saw 101 40-save seasons, plus nine players are on pace for 40 saves this season alone (including Rodriguez).
In other news, I've heard that a sticking point in trade talks to acquire Brian Roberts is the Cubs don't want to give up Jason Marquis; if true, I only have this to say: "Give him away! Give him away now!" Marquis is ... not good. Roberts, on the other hand, is good. The only problem I really see in acquiring Roberts would be where to put all the players, but I see the most likely solution being keeping Theriot at short, Soriano in left, moving Fukudome to center, and DeRosa to right, with Lee, Roberts, Ramirez, and Soto occupying first, second, third, and catcher, respectively and obviously.
The Diamondbacks seemed to get Rauch pretty cheaply from the Nationals, and the Yankees did likewise with Nady and Marte from the Pirates. While the return was low, at least the teams seemed smart enough to trade them for something. The Nationals have been hanging onto their players at the deadline recently, and signing some to unwise contract extensions (the trend has continued this year with Christian Guzman). The Pirates ... well, they're just a mess in every which way.
The Astros are delusional and decided to add Randy Wolf.
The Phillies got Joe Blanton, who is terribly overrated. An improvement over Adam Eaton, sure, but that's really all the team can say it did: improve their fifth starter.
The Brewers acquired Ray Durham while they were playing the Giants. I'd like to see a repeat of an event that's previously happened -- though I can't recall when, what teams, or what players -- with two teams trading players between games of a doubleheader against each other.
Labels: baseball
posted by DC | 9:35 AM
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