My Annual Baseball Predictions

I meant to get this posted yesterday morning, before the season really got underway (those first three games were just a sideshow), but, well, didn't.

For the predictions of others, you can see ESPN's experts' picks for playoff teams and awards, or the composite predicted standings from those experts. The Cubs are near unanimous picks for making their first back-to-back playoff appearances since they made three straight from 1906-1908. A few oddball predictions for awards, too (Manny Ramirez, MVP? I don't think so.). I also saw the predictions for some mathematician, so here they are.

My predictions for the coming season, starting with projected standings:

NL East
Mets
Phillies
Braves
Nationals
Marlins

NL Central
Cubs
Brewers
Reds
Astros
Cardinals
Pirates

NL West
Dodgers
Rockies
Padres
Diamondbacks
Giants

AL East
Yankees
Red Sox
Rays
Blue Jays
Orioles

AL Central
Indians
Tigers
Twins
Royals
White Sox

AL West
Angels
Mariners
Athletics
Rangers



As for my annual prediction of how many players will pass Babe Ruth on the career strikeout list (the hitting one, not the pitching one), it looks like a thin crop this year, despite five “active” players having between 1290 and 1300 strikeouts (Ruth’s career total was 1330). Derek Jeter and Bobby Abreu figure to pass him, but the other three are Steve Finley (still looking for a job, and he really shouldn’t be getting one), Bret Boone (trying to make a comeback after not playing in a regular season game since July 2005, and currently assigned to the Nationals’ AAA affiliate), and Jose Valentin (battling injuries and in extended spring training for the Mets, and reduced to a backup role even when healthy). Likewise, Juan Gonzalez is at 1273, but is battling injuries in his comeback attempt (a shocker!). Richie Sexson is 103 short, which he should get assuming the Mariners don’t bench him for poor play and he stays healthy. Adam Dunn is only 238 short, which might be too much even for Dunn. In short, I’d say Ruth drops three places on the alltime strikeout list this season.

Along that strikeout front, I predict that Dunn reaches the 200 mark if healthy, and Ryan Howard, while striking out often, falls short of that mark. If Jack Cust is used fulltime, I see him reaching the 200 mark, too, but the fact that he sat out the second Japan game against Boston leaves me to doubt that he’ll see enough playing time (he did pinch-hit in that game, though, and drew a walk). I’d say that he needs about 620 plate appearances to do it. He should definitely reach 180, though, and, assuming Howard and Dunn do likewise, that would make this the first season with three 180+ strikeout batters.

Peter Gammons and Peter Pascarelli predict Manny Ramirez will win the AL MVP award. I predict he will not.
Dontrelle Willis will have an ERA of 5 or higher.

Alex Rodriguez will reach none of the totals that ESPN fantasy projected for him (137 runs, 55 homers, 158 RBI, 27 steals, .316 AVG), which had him improving in four categories from his 2007 totals (143, 54, 156, 24, .314).

Having had many problems trying to predict the performance of Barry Bonds in recent years, I will refrain from making predictions on if/when/where he’ll sign with a team. I would, however, like to note that I previously pointed out that his legal issues would not be an impediment to him playing, and that seems to be going as I predicted, as the trial shouldn’t start until after the season ends. Perhaps that’s why he’s not signed yet -- too many club executives are listening to erporters who know nothing about the legal system. Moreover, they don’t know the contracts for the sport they cover very well -- standard boilerplate would (at least essentially) get the team out of the deal if Bonds were to go to jail during the season (which won’t be happening, but, hey, I’m making a point).

It looks like the White Sox might repeat as most overhyped team. I already knew the management thought last season was a fluke based on their offseason moves, but now I’m seeing various commentators also saying that it was. It wasn’t. For those who scoff at my projected rankings putting them in last place, I’d like to point out that they tied for the worst Pythagorean record in the majors last season (with Tampa Bay), and were only kept out of the cellar in their division by outplaying their Pythagorean by five games, and the Royals underplaying theirs by the same amount. The White Sox are bad.

In other overhyped offseason pitcher acquisition news, Dan Haren will not be the amazing pitcher he’s portrayed as. He will be more like the Dan Haren post-2007 all star break than the Dan Haren pre-2007 all star break. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying he’ll be a bust like Willis, I’m just saying those saying that he’s a Cy Young contender are going way too far.

Carlos Zambrano and Micah Owings will each hit at least four homers. Yes, that’s a small number, but they’re pitchers.

The Dodgers will find someone to take Juan Pierre in a trade, but they’ll have to eat most of the contract themselves.