Baseball predictions

It's time for the second annual installment of my preseason baseball predictions. Go here for last year's predictions (yes, several were bad). Once again, expect a bunch of oddball predictions. I think, at least -- I haven't decided what I'm predicting yet.

Well, the Red Sox won the World Series in 2004, and the White Sox won it last year, so this is the Cubs year, right? Tony Gwynn thinks so. I hope so. However, I won't predict it for them -- gotta worry about jinxing them or anything. If their pitchers are healthy most of the year, and at playoff time, it sure could be their year, though.

This year, I'm actually going to predict winners in each division and the wild card, rather than the haphazard guesses of last year (if you want "expert" picks, ESPN writers have their picks compiled here).
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: Angels
AL Wild Card: Twins

NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: Giants
NL Wild Card: Cubs

Each year I pick that the Braves won't win their division. Each year, they win it. I figure if I stick with the same prediction, I'll be right eventually. I started following baseball in 1991, which happened to be the year they started winning, so since I started following baseball, I've never seen the Braves lose their division; 1994 likely would have seen them fail, but he strike ended that.

National League Rookie of the year: Matt Cain (starting pitcher, Giants). I usually don't follow prospects, but I started hearing about this guy in 2004, and he was great in limited action last year. I can see him going for 15 wins this year, and that sounds like ROY material to me.

Barry Bonds: I'll predict that he'll play in around 130 games this year, putting up similar numbers to what he has in recent years (2005 excepted; in 2003, he played in exactly 130 games, so that might be a good benchmark). He'll sit out almost all day games after night games, and assorted other games again. Of course, my predictions for the Giants and Matt Cain depend a good deal on Bonds -- without a decent amount of Bonds, the Giants almost certainly won't win the division, and Cain will have trouble reaching 15 wins without Bonds supporting him.

Strikeouts: five players will pass Babe Ruth on the alltime list. I predicted the number who would pass him last year, and decided to make it an annual thing. For those wondering why I would predict such an odd thing, I offer up two reasons: first, I have a rather odd interest in strikeouts by hitters to begin with; second, every so often you'll hear that Babe Ruth was a great homerun hitter, but he struck out a lot, too. While Ruth did strike out a lot for his time, and did lead the majors in strikeouts four times (still tied for most times leading the majors), and ended his career as the career strikeouts leader (which had something to due with his longevity as well), by today's standards, he didn't strike out all that much, he never struck out 100 times in a season, and he's regularly being passed on the career list for most strikeouts (and lost the record many years ago). His homeruns, however, would still place him among the best in the game (also, he lead the majors in that category eleven times, which makes the four times leading the league in strikeouts rather paltry in comparison).

Hit by Pitch: Craig Biggio will set the career mark for most times getting beaned. For those of you thinking he already had it, what he has is the modern record. His 274 HBP is short of Hughie Jennings's 287 (Jennings was a rookie in 1891 and played through 1903, with a few random appearances in 1907, 1909, 1912, and 1918 (though he was not beaned in those later years)). As he's been beaned more than 13 times in ten of the last eleven seasons, this is a rather safe prediction, really made more for trivia purposes than going out on a limb. As an aside, Jason Kendall has only played ten seasons and already has been beaned 197 times, so Biggio might not hold the record for as long as Jennings has.

Pedro Martinez really made my prediction about him look bad last season. Just for kicks, I'll predict against him again; that his ERA will jump by at least half a run.

The Blue Jays: I see them having a winning season this time, but falling short of the playoffs (obviously, as I already listed my playoff predictions) as all their big pick-ups were of the overhyped variety. The other day, I saw something that said (very loose quote): "B.J. Ryan: Trevor Hoffman or Bobby Thigpen?" -- I'm going with Bobby Thigpen (which is to say, one amazing season, but won't be a consistent top-of-the-line closer).

Jimmie Rollins has an amazing 36-game hit streak entering the season. Much ink has been used talking about it. The story dies fast as he goes hitless in a game during the first week of the season.

Also, last year I complained about the way opening day(s) was set up. I find this year's schedule somewhat less annoying, but still annoying. Off days do not belong in the middle of a series.

As for any predictions on how my fantasy team will turn out, my high hope is for a finish in the top third, I'll consider it a failing if I finish in the bottom third, and my more realistic expectation is a middle third (the league has nine teams, for those wondering). It shall be primarily a season of experimentation and next year I shall go for domination.