Review of My Baseball Season Predictions
Back in April, I made these predictions. Now, it's time to summarize how I did.
In calling the division titles, I correctly picked the Yankees, and incorrectly picked the Cubs and Giants (Giants weren't that far out, though, not being eliminated until the 158th game of the season (though their freefall at season's end makes it look worse)). I thought I'd called the Twins here, but I didn't, so I guess that's not a missed prediction after all ...
Bonds was not back by mid-May (not even close), so I blew that one. I made his homerun total conditional on my making that first prediction, so it doesn't count against my total! Five homers in thirteen starts, though, would easily translate into over thirty (and quite possibly over forty) had he come back by mid-May.
Pedro was not a bust and in fact had a resurgence. Blew that one, too.
I said that Glaus, Ortiz, and Vazquez would be busts for the Diamondbacks. I still contend that Glaus wasn't worth nearly as much as they paid him, but "bust" would be a bit harsh of a characterization; he did only hit .258, but had 37 homers and 97 RBI's, a .363 OBP and a .522 SLG, so not nearly as bad as a half-dozen players that come to mind, but not worth his salary [editted to add: I went back and read what I wrote, and only said that he wouldn't have a very good season; still, I'll give this one to him, and Vazquez to me]. As for Vazquez and Ortiz, I said at least one would have a losing record, and they both did (11-15, and 5-11, respectively). Vazquez had an ERA of 4.42, and his status as a bust could be debated; still, they expected something of a star pitcher and got a mediocre one, so I count him as one, though I recognize others can reasonably disagree. However, Ortiz, with his 6.89 ERA was undeniably a bust.
Sosa definitely continued his decline, with AVG/OBP/SLG of .221/.295/.376 and only 14 homers in 102 games. He was among the very bottom of all qualifying players in the first three categories until missing the last month-plus and not having enough plate appearances to qualify at season's end. Between him and Palmeiro you could have two 500HR-club teammates without a job next year.
Biggio easily passed Don Baylor in the beanball category, with a couple months to spare.
Babe Ruth only fell to 78th on the all-time strikeout list, rather than 80th. Boone was cut (twice), Burnitz didn't amass enough strikeouts, Salmon didn't come back, and neither Juan Gonzalez nor Benito Santiago were able to beat injuries (didn't really expect Gonzalez to, though). Jose Hernandez, Jim Edmonds, Manny Ramirez, Jeff Kent, Rafael Palmeiro, Carlos Delgado, and Ken Griffey, Jr., all passed the Babe this year, though.
So, in total, I had a dozen predictions and got half of them. Not too shabby. More thoughts on the season that was to come later. Quick predictions for division series winners: Yankees, White Sox, Cardinals, Astros.
In calling the division titles, I correctly picked the Yankees, and incorrectly picked the Cubs and Giants (Giants weren't that far out, though, not being eliminated until the 158th game of the season (though their freefall at season's end makes it look worse)). I thought I'd called the Twins here, but I didn't, so I guess that's not a missed prediction after all ...
Bonds was not back by mid-May (not even close), so I blew that one. I made his homerun total conditional on my making that first prediction, so it doesn't count against my total! Five homers in thirteen starts, though, would easily translate into over thirty (and quite possibly over forty) had he come back by mid-May.
Pedro was not a bust and in fact had a resurgence. Blew that one, too.
I said that Glaus, Ortiz, and Vazquez would be busts for the Diamondbacks. I still contend that Glaus wasn't worth nearly as much as they paid him, but "bust" would be a bit harsh of a characterization; he did only hit .258, but had 37 homers and 97 RBI's, a .363 OBP and a .522 SLG, so not nearly as bad as a half-dozen players that come to mind, but not worth his salary [editted to add: I went back and read what I wrote, and only said that he wouldn't have a very good season; still, I'll give this one to him, and Vazquez to me]. As for Vazquez and Ortiz, I said at least one would have a losing record, and they both did (11-15, and 5-11, respectively). Vazquez had an ERA of 4.42, and his status as a bust could be debated; still, they expected something of a star pitcher and got a mediocre one, so I count him as one, though I recognize others can reasonably disagree. However, Ortiz, with his 6.89 ERA was undeniably a bust.
Sosa definitely continued his decline, with AVG/OBP/SLG of .221/.295/.376 and only 14 homers in 102 games. He was among the very bottom of all qualifying players in the first three categories until missing the last month-plus and not having enough plate appearances to qualify at season's end. Between him and Palmeiro you could have two 500HR-club teammates without a job next year.
Biggio easily passed Don Baylor in the beanball category, with a couple months to spare.
Babe Ruth only fell to 78th on the all-time strikeout list, rather than 80th. Boone was cut (twice), Burnitz didn't amass enough strikeouts, Salmon didn't come back, and neither Juan Gonzalez nor Benito Santiago were able to beat injuries (didn't really expect Gonzalez to, though). Jose Hernandez, Jim Edmonds, Manny Ramirez, Jeff Kent, Rafael Palmeiro, Carlos Delgado, and Ken Griffey, Jr., all passed the Babe this year, though.
So, in total, I had a dozen predictions and got half of them. Not too shabby. More thoughts on the season that was to come later. Quick predictions for division series winners: Yankees, White Sox, Cardinals, Astros.
Labels: baseball
posted by DC | 6:16 PM
1 Comments:
i think with troy glaus, the hype and salary factors make him look worse than he is. his statistics this year were pretty much dead on with his career averages. expectations were just too high.
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