Free Agents and Other Baseball Musings

I find the way the whole Alex Rodriguez thing has played out to be quite amusing. I was going to laugh if he ended up taking a paycut, but that now seems unlikely, as he has crawled back to the Yankees. There was lots of talk of a $300 million contract being a "conservative estimate" but I was more than a little skeptical -- who, besides the Yankees, was going to pay $30 million a year? And the Yankees seemed more likely to go for a seven-year extension worth $210 million (not as their initial offer, but as something they could be negotiated into). Scott Boras blew this one, big time. Maybe he was trying to over compensate after the Red Sox got the better of him in the Daisuke Matsuzaka negotiations.

On to the other free agents ...

It has always been my belief that Posada, Rivera, and Pettite would be back with the Yankees. Posada's agreed to come back (I don't think everything's been quite finalized), Pettite says that if he plays, it will be for the Yankees (and he has said that he felt better physically at the end of the season than he has in some time), and Rivera still seems most likely to come back as a Yankee. So the talk of the Yankees splintering was, big surprise, overblown. As to the talk of Rivera to the Dodgers, I believe that he'd have some genuine interest in playing for Torre there, but that's he's sing it more as a negotiation ploy with the Yankees. Though if Rivera is looking to pad his stats, the NL West would be much nicer to his ERA and so forth than the AL East, and the Dodgers' offense lacks the potency to deliver as many blowouts as the Yankees, which should result in more save opportunities (yes, the save is vastly overrated, but people still pay attention to it).

Keith Law was asked during a chat today which 2007 free agent signings will be the worst, along with the worst trade, and he replied "Romero, Rowand, Hunter, Linebrink, Glavine, and the worst trade will be whatever trade the Dodgers make that includes one or more of Kemp/Kershaw/Billingsley." Rowand and Hunter both seem good possibilities to me, somewhat analogous to Matthews and Pierre last offseason. Offensively, Torii Hunter nearly equaled the best season of his career, and given the emphasis placed on RBI's and, to a lesser extent, runs, most would consider it the best season of his career. His defense, while good, is overrated. The same offensive and defensive analysis can be applied to Aaron Rowand. Career year on offense and overrated defense equals bigger than deserved payday. Hunter is 32 and Rowand is 30, so these guys are unlikely to improve and likely to decline by the end of their contract. Linebrink is likely to get a deal based on his reputation from 2004-2005 rather than the way he's played the last couple of seasons. Romero already got a deal from the Phillies based on his performance with the this half-season. Glavine's WHIP was over 1.4, his ERA was nearly 4.50, his strikeouts were down, and all this while pitching in a pitcher's park (which doesn't really affect the strikeouts, but the first two it's relevant for). He still has a reputation, though, and is likely to squeeze more money out of the Braves than they should give.

I'm interested to see what happens with Andruw Jones. Prior to the season, Jayson Stark named him the most overrated player in baseball in his book, and I was inclined to agree (or at least put him in the top, say, three). His poor offensive year, and continued decline on defense, makes me wonder what will happen. He would have been looking for the second-biggest payday this offseason (behind Rodriguez), but now will be much lower, both in terms of financial compensation per year and number of years. He might gamble with a one-year contract to boost his value, or he might sucker some team into ignoring this last season and immediately thrust himself into the discussion of worst offseason signings.

Sammy Sosa wants a $7 million contract. Good luck on that.

I'd heard rumors about the Yankees pursuing Torii Hunter, and then trading Melky Cabrera. This strikes me as a bad idea. Even the Yankees have a budget, and they can save over $40 million over the next four years by staying with Cabrera, who's Hunter's equal on defense, and put up a similar batting average and on-base percentage, though the slugging showed a marked difference. Cabrera is young enough that he figures to improve on offense (especially power), while Hunter is likely to decline, both due to age and this being something of a career year for him. By 2009, Hunter will be no better, and considerably more expensive.

While I was typing this, word came that Barry Bonds was indicted. Well, at least there won't be any more of that "will he be indicted?" talk. However, as to his baseball status, I'm going to say the same thing I've been saying, that nobody seems to listen to: he won't be in jail based on an indictment (he'll post bail), and it's likely to be a year before the trial starts, or, at least, ends (though the timing of the indictment does not allow for much leeway on this front, especially if his new team expects to play October baseball). Sure, it's likely to affect the kinds of offers he'll get, but as far as affecting his ability to play goes, it's not likely to do much. Besides, perjury and obstruction of justice? All he has to do is get semantic about what the meaning of "is" is, and he'll be free. More seriously, if the trial is in San Francisco, I see a good chance of him not being acquitted or a hung jury, the latter leading to a new trial or the government giving up. I'm also curious about the indictment happening now. What evidence do they have that they didn't have before? Prior to this news, I was considering an indictment unlikely under the premise of "If they were going to do it, they would have done it by now." We'll see what happens.

For those who somehow thought that getting rid of Bonds would solve all the Giants' age issues, they're re-signing Omar Vizquel, and are saying positive things about doing the same with Pedro Feliz (who isn't that old, but is old enough that he's not getting any better). Their age issues seem to be more a problem of Brian Sabean (their GM) than Bonds.

Also, when searching for some contract information, I discovered Cot's Baseball Contracts, which is a very good site for that information. Many places will tell you how much a player is making this year, and news articles will tell you how much they're going to make from a new contract, but that site has a player's complete salary history along with future salary information. I highly recommend it.

My Picks for 2007 MLB Awards

I decided to make this a different post in an effort to keep post length somewhat under control.

NL MVP: A tough race here, very competitive. None of the guys blow you away, but it is better than last year's NL Cy Young, where none of the candidates really seemed to deserve the award. Matt Holliday, Jimmy Rollins, Prince Fielder, and David Wright are the names tossed around the most, with some mentions of Albert Pujols and Chipper Jones, and few mentions of anyone beyond that (a few Bonds mentions, but as he wasn't 2001-2004 amazing, and the Giants were, let's say, lackluster, it was more of a courtesy mention indicating he wasn't having a bad year than and serious consideration for naming him MVP; he'll probably pick up a couple down-ballot votes). I think the award will probably go to Rollins, with Holliday finishing second (though it could go the other way). Chipper Jones put up some surprisingly great numbers this year, and if he'd played in more than 134 games, he'd have my hypothetical vote. Instead, I think I'll go with David Wright; he put up good numbers in a pitcher's park, played good defense at one of the tougher positions, and ran the bases pretty well.

NL Cy Young: Unlike last year, someone does deserve it. Jake Peavy won the pitching triple crown, which makes him the easy choice. There's a case to be made for Brandon Webb, and maybe a few others, but the voters will obviously choose Peavy (possibly unanimously), and even the best argument a Webb fan could reasonably make would make the pitchers out to be about equal, rather than giving Webb some kind of upper hand. So, I'm going with Peavy.

NL Rookie of the Year: A two-man race between Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki. Braun was certainly a force with the bat, but was horrible with the glove at third base, repeatedly making errors. Tulowitzki wasn't exactly a slouch with the bat, and led all rookies with enough plate appearances to qualify in slugging and OPS (though this was aided by playing in Denver, and see my note in the previous post on Bonds winning the on-base title and Braun (I think) the slugging). Tulowitzki's biggest value, though, is his defense at short, where he should have won the gold glove (but, really, how often do gold gloves go to who they're supposed to?). I think his stellar defense at that tough position will carry the day, plus the fact that he played the whole season.

AL MVP: It's Alex Rodriguez. I hate to admit it, but it is. I stand by my repeated statements that his season has been overrated, but he's still the MVP.

AL Cy Young: An interesting race where Beckett and Sabathia get most of the attention, but Carmona and Lackey can each make a case, and Bedard, Haren, and Santana might all have had a shot if their win totals were greater. I think wins are overrated, but I'm not a voter. I say Sabathia eeks this one out, owing in large part to the extra 40 innings he pitched compared to Beckett.

AL Rookie of the Year: Three Red Sox players were in the running for this award, but the Japanese imports suffered a downturn in August. Guthrie and Bannister turned in good rookie years on the mound, and Willits had a good season as well, but the ROY will probably go to former Sun Devil Dustin Pedroia. As far as whether he deserves it goes, well, that depends on how much weight you put on position players compared to pitchers. I think I'd give the edge to Guthrie (with Bannister close behind), but those who actually have votes tend more towards hitters. If Daisuke Matsuzaka had performed better, he would have overcome that prejudice, as he was the hype candidate, but, well, he didn't.

Recap of the 2007 Baseball Season

First off, a review of my early predictions, found here and here.

Final Standings, with my predicted finish for each team:

AL East:
Red Sox 3
Yankees 1
Blue Jays 2
Orioles 4
Devil Rays 5

AL Central
Indians 2
Tigers 3
Twins 1
White Sox 4
Royals 5

AL West
Angels 1
Mariners 4
Athletics 2
Rangers 3


NL East
Phillies 1
Mets 2
Braves 3
Nationals 5
Marlins 4

NL Central
Cubs 1
Brewers 3
Cardinals 2
Astros 4
Reds 5
Pirates 6

NL West
Diamondbacks 4
Rockies 5
Padres 3
Dodgers 2
Giants 1


Aside from the NL West, moving one team would have given me the correct standings in each division (In the NL West, moving one team could have given me the inverse standings). Also, I'd say my labeling of the White Sox as most-overhyped team of the preseason was spot-on.

Roger Clemens did not pitch as well as I thought he would, and, more importantly, was hobbled by injuries. He did not surpass his win total from 2006, partly because he missed a few starts due to injury, and partially because he appeared to have a few run support issues even with the Yankees (bullpen issues, too), as he managed ten "quality starts" but only six wins. Now, not every "quality start" will yield a win, but, especially for the Yankees, most should, and it's certainly possible to pick up a win without a quality start. He was not robbed of wins to the extent he was in Houston, though.

Of the five players being touted before the season as having a shot to reach 500 homers, Gary Sheffield fell short (which should not have been a surprise to anyone), as did Manny Ramirez, fulfilling my prediction of Sheffield and one other. I'd thought about saying two besides Sheffield, but am now glad that I did not.

On the strikeout front, Thome moved into third all-time in a gimme prediction, Adam Dunn and Alex Rodriguez failed to strikeout as much as I thought they would (in Dunn's case, due to injury at season's end). Three players passed Babe Ruth on the all-time list, rather than the five I predicted (Andruw Jones, Frank Thomas, and Julio Franco passed him). Not passing him were Steve Finley (teams finally realized he's not good enough to play regularly anymore; he also struck out surprisingly little during his time with the Rockies, making his horrible average somewhat surprising), and injured Mets Jose Valentin and Shawn Green, though in Green's case, he also reduced his strikeout rate.

Bonds broke Aaron's homer mark in August, not July. He also failed to reach 2,000 RBI's, as the offense around him was even worse than last year. His 600th double also came in August instead of before the All-Star break. His failure to reach any of the three marks by the time I predicted can probably be attributed to the anemic offense around him, which resulted in fewer plate appearances per game, fewer RBI opportunities, and made it easier to walk him, as other teams were virtually assured of not being punished for it. He led the National League in on-base percentage (he lacked the number of plate appearances to qualify, so you won't see him on most leader lists, but he managed to win under the rule allowing a player who is x plate appearances short of qualifying to win the title if giving him an 0-for-x would still give him a higher average than anyone with enough plate appearances to qualify; Ryan Braun won the NL slugging title by the same rule, I believe).

Biggio somehow managed to stay out of the way of enough pitches, and will retire without the all-time beanball record. He does have the modern record, though, if that is any consolation. He attained his 3,000th hit, and fell short of 300 homers, but no surprises there.

I think that covers all my preseason predictions. As for later predictions, yeah, the Diamondbacks did manage to hang on and win the division, and Alex Rodriguez had a hot streak at the end of August and early September to give him 54 homers no the year, beating my prediction, but still not reaching Steve Phillip's what-was-he-thinking 57, and certainly not the 60 or more some were thinking.